2nd day Report - 3 places - Waygaon, Yavatmal, Wardha
Super duper meetings. Very knowledgable people sparing almost 2 hours in each interaction. Great day of using incremental learning to better effect incrementally with the next person in the chain:). Special thanks again to Gaurav Chandak’s contacts for Yavatmal. And Saurabh Shankar’s contacts for Wardha/Waygoan.
10-pointers to understanding the BT Cotton Seeds game! (really?:))
1). By all estimates (consensus) - Maharshtra market is 1 Cr plus. best case 1.4 Cr, worst case atleast 1 Cr (even considering shrinking acreage, drought, soya shift, et al).
2). Vidharbha -45-50 Lakhs (yavatmal 15-18 L, Wardha 8-10 L, Amravati 7-8 L, Akola 7-8 L ; Khandesh 35 L (jalgaon itself 20-25 lakhs); Marathwada 25-30 L
3). Nuziveedu is No#1 in all 3 regions. Mallika is in demand. It ensures adequate supply. Ankur is very well placed in Wardha. Ajeet & Mahyco are in demand but supply has never been adequate. There has been shortage, which keeps up the craze for these two. There is actually little local sowing (local demand in Vidhrbha), but trading from other regions at higher than MRP happens. Dealers from here book Ajeeth & Mahyco - so they can sell to buyers from other regions - because the companies allocate only so much per region. These lead to other practices, black market, vigilance checks, and the like.
4). Kaveri has reportedly done pretty well in Jalgaon - Khandesh region. At other places it comes lower in priority. Feedback/performance is good, but company has not done enough field work, its felt. In Wardha region actually it has fallen back. 2 years back Jadoo & Jackpot did very well, farmers started asking for them, but next year there was not enough supply, margins were cut, so this year they are clearly not among top 4 in Wardha. In Yavatmal, it seems to be in the reckoning - they are also doing good field work - but forgroundswellto happen in someones favour it takes some more time before they become automatic choice - or a “craze” like Ajeet or Mahyco (deliberate shortage vs actual demand). Ajeet & MAhyco have preferred to play it safe rather than be willing to take on aggressive risks like Nuziveedu earlier and now Kaveri (who have the adequate financial muscle to handle fast scaling up, and bear it on the chin if say things go wrong). But Nuziveedu concentrates on field work - which involves - local demonstration, knowledge transfer, technology transfer. Kaveri is also doing it well in pockets. Ankur is very good in this aspect and service in Wardha. It has 15 people in the field - they actually meet 60-70% of the farmers in Wardha, attending to their needs, advising/correcting if things have gone wrong,etc.
5). Consensus estimates for Kaveri last year in Maharashtra - 8-10 L vs 13 L, claimed by Company.
6). This year, everybody has adequate supplies. NZ still remains the No#1 choice - that does not change. In Wardha nobody can shake Ankur’s hold. Ajeet and Mahyco have great craze demand in Marathwada. Difficult for Kaveri to muscle in - product is good no doubt, but that amount of “top-of-mindshare” hold is not there in farmer’s minds. If they keep up the field work, and hybrids keep performing, they may come in reckoning sooner than later. Anybody’s guess what will happen this year - may be able to do 25-30% more by one account (only one account:)).
7). Most hybrids have one or other trait to their advantage. But end of the day, in demonstration plots, if you sow the top 50 varieties (out of 280 odd BT hybrids) - and use best practice sowing, fertliser, insecticide, de-weeding, irrigation -there is nothing to differentiate - yields are identical 19-20 ka farak hai!! A farmer in wardha region sows in 70 Acres. He regularly plants BT hybrids of atleast 15 varieties - including Vikram, Rasi, local Krishidan & Yashoda - and he regularly gets the same yields from all of them!!
8). A lot thus depends on the farmer’s knowledgability on best practices, willingness to study/ask around, willingness to work hard to get the most out, and having the resources to put say 20000/- per acre to take care of all above and best fertiliser, insecticide sprays, irrigate, and harvesting. Irony is, not more than 5-7% of the farmers fall in this category!!!
9). There is no concept of Commercial farming. Most people have their land. Someone who has say only 2 Acres, has no choice, he knows he has to feed the whole family for the year from these 2 acres only. He obviously puts in much more hard work, try’s to learn how best to get the most out. But Most people have enough land and excess land. they are happy to get 5-6 quintals/acre with almost no effort - sow, spray one insecticide, and get the yield you have been getting. In Wardha. Ankur is such a no-nonsense performer, not much headache:). Farmers usually have their mind pretty set, by the time of buying season. They know what they want - never mind whether that really is the best choice or not.
9). This “mindshare” is really a game.Nuziveedu knows how to play the band-baaza-baraat game, farmers dance to the tune.Farmers come with their mind-set. He wants to buy 10 pckts. 6 pckts he wants NZ only, and he may take 1-2 pkts of others, might ask suggestions, not happy with one last time, this time may want a change, may be influenced by dealer for that but only so much. Some of the other hybrids are actually better - Mahycos, and Ajeet’s and even Ankur’s in Wardha conditions. But this guy may have used the wrong type in wrong soil condition- and then blames the hybrid. Arre NZ hi accha hain, Ajith lagaya chala nahi. Kaveri is trying to learn the band-baaza game, adroitly but has to do lot more work to increase the exposure.
10). Yields differ from 5-6 quintals per acre, to 10-12 quintals, to 15-20 even 22 quintals/acre in some cases. But hey, this is in not more than 5-7% of the farmers -for reasons cited above. In rain-fed (when rain actually happens) you can get 5-6 quintals. In irrigated you may do 10-12 quintals. In rain-fed+where you can additionally irrigate from wells say you can end up doing 15 quintals. All best practices, ability to put 20K per acre, and irrigate well - 20 quintals is doable from most hybrids! Usually folks put in 5-6-7 K per acre and get the average 5-6 quintals yield. if particularly lazy some even get 3-4 quintals per acre. Theydon’tlisten that hey if you can put in 20k per acre then do it, it will beremunerativefor you…most distributors/dealers long enough in the business know and can advise…but no takers. Most farmersdon’tmake a good deal out of the cotton sowing…but they all end up putting the blame it on the wrong things:(
Tomorrow meetings at Hinghanghat with Jadoo farmer and other farmers:) and with dealers/distributors. Back in Nagpur to meet Ankur Seeds Director (MD’s son) …should be a great meeting …hope it does indeed happen…and final rounding-off meeting in the evening with Director Central Institute of Cotton research (CICR) Rajesh Kranthi - who’s reaching back to NAgpur on 12th itself from Udaipur. His secy was kind enough to promise me, “You should get the appointment Sir, please call him tomorrow morning - here’s his mobile number. if youdon’tget him, then call me I will try to arrange it for you:)”.
Sometimes I have to wonder…how much of hard work goes in in very short time…chaotic & sort of unplanned …to arrange meetings with suchknowledgeablefolks willingly sharing their valuable time at very short notice…and suddenly it all seems to fall in place very smoothly…in just the right sequence…without really planning it that way…I keep wondering aboutthesequence;)…there reverse order will not do, I know…with so much of inputs buzzing in my head… I can really quiz Dir CICR well…in an effort to separate the Men from the Boys! Thanks Gaurav Chandak and Saurabh Shankar and all their friends/relativesand my school-chum Dr Sanjay Kolte who casually got me the appo with Director Ankur Seeds …at the last minute…sort of pulling a rabbit out of his hat…when all efforts at getting (we had the name)the contact numberwas failing.
Tomorrow is another great day ahead! Wish us luck:)
Cheers
Donald
Ps: incase you are wondering why all this…ambling…wonder…story-telling, etc. Just my attempt to get more ValuePickrs to fall for this kind of interesting but hard on-field work. It’s so rewarding & fulfilling to meet great guys doing exemplary work in their own areas on the ground, their challenges, and their sagacity…their grounded-ness. If done with the right earnestness - I have always seen, this without fail, more & more people come out of nowhere to help you get to the bottom! It’s almost surreal…as if You are not “doing” IT, IT’s just Happening!
Wanna try, next time??
