Inquired about Kaveri seeds with my relatives in AP (Rayaseema region).
Cash payment farmers prefer Mahyco and Syngenta.
Credit farmers , it depends on the dealer. Kaveri has decent brand re call.
Dear Narendra,
Thanks for your efforts. Please keep enquiring with more contacts yoy have/might establish.
If you look at the distribution we put up earlier, Rayalseema 4 districts accounts for 6-7 lakh packets only out of APās 90 lakh packets. 60 lakh packets come from Telengana region & 23-24 lakh packets from Coastal regions.
Makes sense to concentrate efforts for Telengana region. Coastal our feedback is Kaveri is sweeping that region. jadoo is the undisputed leader there.
Rgds
Donald
What impact would the severe drought in Maharashtra have on the cotton acerage?
The drought in Maharashtra is in Marathawada region -15 drought-hit districts in and around the Marathwada region -Aurangabad, Beed, Hingoli, Jalna, Latur, Nanded, Osmanabad, Parbhani. Marathwada region, which lies in the rain-shadow zone, is drought-prone.
Cotton production from Marthawada region is insignificant. Cant be more than 1-2 lakh packets. AP totally accounts for 90 lakh packets.
Gaurav Chandak, a Valuepickr member is from Latur in this region. He should be able to comment better.
-Donald
intensityof drought is very powerful.
It is very very hard to get pass next 3 month. almost all the tube well , well andreservoir r dry.
now talking about impact of drought on kaveri.
jalna and beed have huge area underCottonsome part of aurangabad.
but l cotton sowing seasone start after 2nd half of june when the mansoon of 2013-2014 arrive so currant drought wont have any effect of next season.
this is my reading as i am farmer too.
delay in nextmonsooncan terriblyhit cotton sowing area cause crop duration of cotton is form 6 month to 8 month.
In that case people will shift tosoybean3 to 4 month.
Hi Gaurav,
Good see your views in this thread.
Regarding shifting to soyabean, my understanding is that any shift cannot be done suddenly in a particular season against current cropping pattern.This is because seeds for alternate crops may not be available for more than 10% sudden shift. If there is huge demand for soya this year then there could be more seeds available next season and more farmers might opt to shift then. Is that correct?
Cheers
Vinod
Dear vinod
soybean sowing is not done with hybrid seed. Farmers @ my end even sow last year crop
(raw soya ) and get good yield.
so in case of latemonsoonwithout any problem farmers can shift form cotton to soybean.
In Central Gujarat, roughly 15% of farmers usually sow cotton early during the month of May to raise the plant so that heavy monsoon does not affect the plants. This all depends on the availability of Irrigation canal water or underground water. Starting April, Guj electricity board has reduced the power availability to agriculture from 10Hrs to 8Hrs/day. Also the irrigation canals are running dry due to heavy water scarcity in Saurashtra region. This would greately affect the crop pattern shifting away from cotton.
Hi Gaurav,
Thanks for your valued inputs. Comments from people directly involved in farming is the most precious for us at ValuePickr. Please keep sharing your insights on a regular basis.
To size up the impact, the moot question though is:**How many lakh packets does Marathawada region contribute to annual Sales of Maharashtra?**Do you have any figure for that? Sorry for my earlier comment -confused with AP regions, somehow:(
My current understanding is (what someone from Hinganghat gave me rough figures for). Will know more after the Nagpur visit.Wardha - 50 lakh; Hinganghat -30-35 Lakh; Yavatmal - 35 L; 120 Lakh packets; Total Maharashtra market is 160 lakh packets.
Does your estimate of these regions tally with above and especially what is the contribution from Marathawada region?
-Donald
Thanks Gaurav and Manish for the inputs. As Donald mentioned, coming from people who are somehow related to farming adds lot of value.
Since sowing is before the monsoons and monsoon predictability in India is notoriously difficult, wouldnāt the farmer go with the water resources available in May ?
This year the resorvoirs in Maharashtra are nearly empty and the ground water also seems to be very depleted. What would encourage the farmer to take such a risk? Will the recent increase in cotton prices be enough to prompt the farmers to take the risk?
We need to do the Cotton Market Mapping for Maharashtra, just the way we did it comprehensively for AP. Maharashtra is a much bigger market 160 lakh packets (AP 90 Lakh).
Those in the know/can get data/figures or qualitative info, please help.
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As of now, I do not have much idea about the size of the markets in these 3 regions. I have provided some base figures to provoke thoughts on the same. The 2 things that lead me to quote these numbers a) Figures quoted by the person I met from Hinganghat b) Cotton Acreage in Maharashtra is expected to decline only by 5-10% We need to verify these from knowledgable sources. We may be able to throw up good guesses. Does Marathawada contribute more than 20 lakh packets - say 40 lakh packets?? Our visit to Vidhrabha region (Tentatively 11th-13th Apr) will provide many answers. Anyone local to Vidharbha - welcome to join in, and help in the discussions/info-digging. -Donald |
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Leaving for Nagpur- Hinganghat- Weardha-Yavatmal trip tomorrow. Reaching Nagpur around 5 pm, 10th Apr.Apart from meeting farmers and dealer/distributors, most probably will be able to meet Director, Central Institute for Cotton research (CICR) Nagpur. If that happens, will be a well-rounded info-trip. Anyone local to Nagpur, welcome to join in.
As of now not much clues to above digging. Looks like Vidharbha is the largets region for Cotton under acreage. If we go by the rough acreage figures I have then Vidharbha may account for 100 lakh packets, Marathwada some 40 lakh packets, and Khandesh some 20 lakh packets.
The counter is Khandesh region has reportedly higher yields.
Will really know once the trip is underway:)
-Donald
Ps: Anyone who can contribute Dealer/Distributor contacts in Wardha, Yavatmal, Autangabad please send in. If I cant meet-up, I surely will gather intelligence over the phone:)
Hi,
Looks like the cotton prices will support higher sowing the coming season.
And state-wise breakup of expected cotton production
Cheers
Vinod
mcx cotton prices chart attached. comments on charts.
it seems cotton prices are quoting at multiweek highs currently which should augur well for cotton acreage.
FORGOT TO ATTACH CHART. MISTAKE RECTIFIED AND CHART ATTACHED HERE.
1st interview - by phone - APMC Secy - Marathwada region
(Secy been most helpful and promised us all help subsequently. Has also given me names/contacts for Yavatmal & Wardha. Many Thanks Gaurav Chandak for arranging the call.)
1). Total Maharashtra mkt - 125-135 lakh packets. Marathwada 45-50 lakh packets; Vidharbha 40 lakh packets. Khandesh 20 Lakh packets. Rest 20-30 lakh packets from other regions
2). In Marathwada - Overall NZ is no #1. Mahyco is No 2. Ajeet no 3. Kaveri seems to have good hybrids, but will have to do more work before it becomes significant, increase its exposure to farmers, and its hybrids have to continue to perform over next 2-3 years. You see Nuziveedu has been active here for more than 10 years. So has Ajeet. And Mahyco this is the origin.
3). Different regions have different favourites - alternating among the top 3. Soil conditions play a big role.
3). Drought situation though alarming is not of much consequence for cotton. This region is sugarcane belt. Last sugarcane crop suffered badly due to drought. It may affect the shift to soya. But cotton can do with very little showers.
4). Total cotton acreage may reduce by 10% or so, not more - all over Maharashtra. Most due to shift to Soya in other regions, and some due to drought in Marathwada
5). Good hybrids yield - in rain-fed areas 5-6 quintals per acre. in irrigated areas 10-12 quintals per acre
Will be meeting Dealers/Distributors in Wardha & Yavatmal tomorrow. Any local contacts most welcome.
-Donald
1 Like
Hi Donald,
Just to say I truly appreciate the work you are doing with total dedication and incisiveness. Putting up such posts in the earlier hours is amazing. Thank you and the others out there along with you. This is on behalf of all at Valuepickr.
Donaldā¦I too register my appreciation for efforts put in.
With cotton prices at multiweek highs, there may be opportunities for arbitrage for buyers (consumers of raw cotton)and sellers of cottonā¦i