PAGE INDUSTRIES : 18 %
GRUH Finance: 28.5%
REPCO Home Finance: 26.5%
GRANULES : 8%
MAYUR UNIQUOTERS: 5.5%
HDFC BANK: 3%
PI INdustries: 2%
Mold Tec Packaging 2%
KAJARIA : 3%
AMARA RAJA ; 2%
Atul Auto : 2%
Stocks that intrests me outside my portfolio Force Motors was trying to understand AVT Natural from
past 3-4 days but its is running up like anything
Looking to bring down the Skewness in the Portfolio by Gradual Fresh Buying but only can do it once a month. (SALARIED EMPLOYEE)
Feedback and Suggestions invited:
Want to actively learn and contribute (Whatever I can) in this Forum
Regards,
kapil
2 Likes
increase you allocation to PI industries.
1 Like
Hi Kapil
You have an extremely concentrated portfolio. So, unless you are very very sure of the companies and can withstand a major drawdown on one of your primary holdings for whatever reason, I would suggest you diversify a bit more. You have good picks in your portfolio, so maybe you could think of a more even distribution amongst them to start with. I am not suggesting you distribute evenly between all stocks, but a reasonable guideline to follow would be to have no more than 10-15% of your portfolio in one stock. Again, this is only if you are not 100% sure of your picks and your own ability to withstand temporary reversals.
1 Like
The quality of stocks in your portfolio indicates that you know what you are doing.
So no need to tweak anything unless u get excited by some idea or disappointed by something you hold.
At the most you might think about allocation since gruh and repco together occupy more than 50% of your PF. (Having said that I feel thats not a bad idea too. 
)
1 Like
@kapil1301
a. you have big winners in your portfolio. I do hope that you have bought these years ago and reaped the benefits.
b. The portfolio looks too concentrated. Consider whether you would be comfortable if one of the top holdings fell by 30% and you would still be able to sleep without panicking.
Hope that helps.
Balaji
1 Like
Thanks a lot everybody for your replies. No I have not earned hugely from markets uptill now have been in learning mode and also GREED had the better of me (did some futile trading and all) but now will be in strict investing mode.
Yes i am looking to bring down concentration in my portfolio but that will be by infusing fresh capital.
I need seniors views on below Stocks that are compelling me to increase allocation in them:
Amara Raja Batteries
Positives:
- I think Batteries in India is a Duopoly Business Exide and Amara Raja Batteries.
- For Investing we should always look at a aompany whose Market Share is continously increasing.(It perfectly fits the bill)
- Very Good Sales Growth and Profit Growth for past 5 Years (Shows their consitency and dominance)
- Operating margin also increasing Continously.
- It is Buy What You see kind of Stock.
Confusion:
I am not pretty sure about the Management.
Risk From Exide regaining the Market Share
Although from various reading I do on investing I have learnt that Turn around companies (Especially because of their own laziness and not because of economy) either dont turn around or take a long time to turn around. So what are chances of Exide regaining the marketshare and its impact on Amara Raja
PI Industries (As sudipto Ji also pointed out)
Force Motors:
This is completely based on “Buy What You See”
Their Force Traveller (Tour Bus Type) is all over the place in GURGAON.
Although Their ROE is Impressive but other numbers as of now are not.
But Somehow it seems that they are their on the path of improvement.
Please if members from South and other locations can provide information how Force travellers are doing in your respective regions and also if there any other product like TRAX are gaining momentum their.
Also if Senior members can share their feedback on Force Motors stock and their Management quality.
Management Quality is the biggest grey area for Retail Invester like me.
Regards,
Kapil
force motor is a good bet as tourism activity increase it is directly benefit force motor
I was reading force Motors annual report and they themselves are not too hopeful except for Force Traveller.
They want to compensate for the slack of demand in other products by Force Travller.
For the time being will stay away from it
Regards,
Kapil
Hi Kapil,
It seems that you are highly bullish on housing sector, 50% allocation in only GRUH and Repco incrise the risk. Invest in Cera/Kajaria/Astral too which is directly link with housing bull run.
No any allocation on Pharma/FMCG sector which is highly recommended. Track Ajanta/Shilpa/LaOpala/Relaxo/WimPlast and add the position if you want.
New
PAGE INDUSTRIES : 11 % – Due to high PE like 90+, it’s difficult for PE expansion and now stock appreciation depends on real growth only which is 25-30%
GRUH/Repco Finance: 11%
GRANULES : 8%
MAYUR UNIQUOTERS: 5.5%
HDFC BANK: 3%
PI INdustries: 2%
Mold Tec Packaging 2%
KAJARIA : 5%
AMARA RAJA ; 5%
- Atul Auto : 2% — Replace with Eicher ( I had big chunk of atul which i sold at 500 due to low performance and I am not sure about future growth. In Stock market, historic things not happens in future always.)
+Ajanta/Shilpa : 10%
+Laopala/Relaxo/Wim : 10%
Thanks,
Amit
2 Likes
Hi Amit,
Thanks a lot for ur feedback/suggestions:
- Yes I am planning to bring down allocation of page.
- For the time being will keep my holdings in housing finance but will not put fresh money in it.
There seems to be huge sector tailwind in housing finance.
- Regarding Atul Auto you said that you are not sure about their future growth I will love to discus with you on your this comment: My points are below:
On going through their annual report i have make out that the number of units that they have sold last year is equivalent to the number of units produced (Meaning No inventory build up and product is in demand)
They are looking for capacity expansion and for increasing exports. (Indicator of Future Growth)
I am at present living in Gurgaon and had seen quite a lot of their auots here.
However most of their autos that I have seen are the Black (Sharing autos) and Loading tempos.
Will like to see them penetrate more in the green ones (Personal autos)
If somebody from Gujarat side can provide the information regarding the models situation there.
Also would like to have your views on PC Jewellers I have written my thinking about it in PC jewellers thread.
Regarding Eicher it is also trading at 83 PE so what is your thinking behind it.
Will wait for your suggestion and feedback
Regards,
Kapil
Auto Sector & Growth prospect
- The growth of any company depends on 3 things
- Volume Growth
- Margin Expansion
- Value Growth ( Price Hike on existing Product)
Lets come to the Auto Sector. This sector is highly competitive for price hike. Auto Sector is not same as FMCG where GSK/Dabur keep incrising the price of Boost/Chavanpras each yr by 5-10%. This is not the case with Tata Motor/Atul Auto.
So the growth is depends on Volume growth and thats where challenge comes. Export through Atul can incrise the top line by 10-20% ( which is our expectation) but what about domestic front.
- Can I assume that Atul can sell 5000 Vehicles compare to 3000/- in next 2 yrs / per month ? or is it become 8000-9000/- per month by 2020 ? If you are sure about this than & than u can stay long with Atul. I am not negative bias on Atul but I am more interested on growth prospect rather than company
Thanks,
Amit
Force Motors has been going good although I have not taken any position in it as could not build the conviction after reading there annual report.
Moreover they always have significant other income could not get the details of that either.
Although here in North Force Traveller is a Huge hit.
Any seniors if have information on below points could please help:
-
I was reading a news article regarding them making Engines for BMW and Mercedes but could not locate the same in the product section of their site.
-
Their other income details.
I am generally asking my doubts in this forum but I want to prepare myself before I can contribute so that my contribution can be meaningful
Regards,
Kapil
your take on Granules India as the co has been underperforming over last 3 qtrs n most of its molecules are in matured stages? any update on auctus pharma turnaround n CRAMS business commissioning?how r the promoters?
Hi Vivek,
To be very Frank I am a newbie in terms of learning although old in the market (though wasted most of the time now want to learn and earn) I used to follow Stock advisory service but that has closed now I invest on my own:
Now my case for Granules:
Key Highlights fron their annual report that might answer some of your queries:
-
Their Joint venture with Omnichem for CRAMS. (As per their annual report the facility for this has been inaugrated in Vizag). With more and more drugs going off patent the CRAMS business should remain strong.
-
Auctus has already turned around. (Auctus reported profit in Q4 ). Granules is planning to use the API portfolio of Auctus to File ANDA’s.
-
In-house R&D team launched and commercialized Abacavir, an anti-retroviral drug.
Although In Granules thread in valuepickr someone has written that is is evident from their annual report that they are moving up in the value chain.
However from their annual reports I can only deduce that the story of moving up the value chain has not been reflected in the numbers yet:
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
API 45 40 44 39 44
PFI 33 31 29 29 24
FD 22 29 27 32 32
So that story is yet to play out.
I think if somebody is holding it can wait for some more time .
Also Vivek I would like to have your views on the above points:
Regards,
kapil
we need to see more execution from granules side.
Finally took exposure in Force Motors.
Have been tracking it for one month should have jumped in before 
If I compare Force Motors with Atul Auto or with Ashok leyland for that matter on all the parameters
it appears that force motors is cheap as comapred to the other two
Debt to equity Market cap to quarterly profit Market Cap to Sales
ATUL AUTO 0.00 119.90 2.10
ASHOK LEYLAND .63 100.67 1.71
FORCE MOTORS .02 48.59 1.00
Triggers:
I can see that Force Traveller is quickly being replacing Innova and SUMOS in IT Companies both as a Shuttle between offices and as cab for picking up employees.
Saw quite a few school Buses and Ambulances Force Travellers
Now they Have set up a plant for BMW and Mercedes Engines.
There were nothing alarmingly negative in their numbers.
My thinking behind entering in it is that this company has room for Market Cap Expansion.
I have allocated 2% of my portfolio in it and hence my views are biased.
Seniors please share your views
Regards,
Kapil
Over Past week Sold My holdings in PC Jewellers and HDFC Bank just paltry gains and increased my holdings in Granules India, PI Industries and Force Motors.
Force Motors Rocked Today !!!
Regards,
Kapil
Hello!
Exited Entire Holding in force Motors with just 200 Rs gain per share was sitting on profit of 800 per share one time.
My question to seniors is suppose you have invested in a stock for Long term but if suppose it doubles in one month and than shows wild variations : (Force Motors) what will you do will you still hold it.
Every day circuits made me jittery and i think i exited just at the wrong time.
One More thing suppose you are bullish on a stock but could not gather substantial information from the AR what will you do.
I have gone through Force Motors AR multiple times but could not see any talks about the mercedes and BMW engine sales but news pertaining to them are continously coming in also their website does not say details about these things.
Regards,
Kapil
It has been Almost 9 Years Since I have been in Stock Markets have done all sorts of right and WRONG things. One very important learning that I have taken from Stock market is to keep it ‘SIMPLE’.
In my 9 Years of being in the market the hardest thing to do was to keep it ‘SIMPLE’
If we can avoid the major blunder points in stock market than I think we will do okay for Ourself
The major Blunders that a novice and a lot of times even a experienced person does are :
- Flow of Conviction with the price. ( Only thing that should dislodge your conviction should be the numbers from the company in question nothing else)
- Trading without Stoploss (It has been the biggest Drag for me I have had the good fortune of investing in some very good companies like Tata Motors,Page Industries, Gruh Finance)
but this GREED/Habit of trying to make that extra through trading has made my very Good returns equal to the return of FD.
- Booking profits too early and letting the losses run. (This mostly happens when you are confused whether you are a trader or an investor)
Trading and Investing are two completely different animals and one should atleast have a sound grip of one before he wants to tame both else you are looking at
’TROUBLE’
Let me clear here itself that I have come across very Successful Investor and also Very Successful TRADERS but the point here is for a beginner it is very important
to choose one of them and master it.
This Confusion and Greed has really limited my gains as already mentioned above to great extent. My real life Example:
TATA MOTORS was going through issue of their plant relocation from west Bengal and I was very confident of the Tata Management.( I was working in TCS at that time )
I bought Tata Motors with full confidence at 130 and when the Price was near 200 I mixed Trading in my investing approach and booked the profits thinking
that I will again get it 10-15 Rs lower.
Now at this time the Greed completely paralyses you dont follow the simple maths Suppose even if I had bought 2000 Shares of Tata motors purchasing them
10-15 Rs Lower would have made me rich by 20-30k but had i kept that position not mixing Trading and Investing than I would have had much much more.
This was not a once of incident in my investing journey.
My journey is replete with such and even more horrendous blunders.
-
DISCIPLINE : - One of the Most Important and Often the Most Ignored Factor.You need to be diciplined in your approach. Too much Chopping and Changes in
Portfolio of an investor can very easily Drag him towards Trading his Investments.
-
Do complete Homework before putting serious money: I have often come across that Jump in the Market than only you will learn.
I find this analogy akin to telling an Untrained Soldier that go into the Battle Conditions there will teach you how to operate the weapons.
Man Market can easliy Slaughter you and than very quickly it will be Game Over. Basic Preprations are very neccessary ofcourse the in depth knowledge
and practical experience will come after you have started Investing but importance of "BASIC PREPRATION’ can not be undermined.
- Borrowed Conviction:
First of all Dont Invest on Borrowed Conviction
If you have complete faith on the Person you are following Blindly follow his call (But make Sure that he will be there to make the Sell call also) or
another option is to gradually Build your own Conviction.
Again here mixing the Strategy can be lethal You have Bought on Borrowed Conviction and now everyday worry about the investment in this case most probably you will
sell the Investment at the wrong Time.
- Following a Guru is very Good but complete dependence on him a BIG NO : You can make money for 2-3 years but what if the Guru Stops investing in Stocks or has
some other aspirations. Follow Smart People try to have discussion with them try to learn and become self dependent.
It is your money you need to take charge of the things and if you are unable to than let the professionals do the investing for you and you should do your daily
Job and provide them with the Money.
Even After 9 Years I am still an amateuar want to up my Game in Stock Market as well as Here at ValuePickr.
All the points listed above are the Mistakes that I have done Numerous times and will definitely avoid them.
I am 32 Now Wasted 9 Years in earning FD returns from Market (Boom Time) want to follow a very disciplined approach and ready for the hardwork.
Regards,
Kapil
11 Likes
)