I have come a long way since I started learning from ValuePicker and investing in stock market. Here is my updated Portfolio. I am trying to add it in a tabular form but I am unable to.
Hi all, Below is my 10X in 10 years Portfolio. I would love to hear your comments on it.
Stock_Name Allocation Avg_Price( For Allocation) Avg_Buying_Price Allocation_Done
DMART 10% 720 732 60%
Titan 10% 500 345 47.5%
Thyrocare 10% 700 690 86%
Narayana 10% 330 240 20%
Page 5% 13000 14200 100%
Pokarna 5% 1300 1050 50%
Tasty Bite 5% 4200 - 0
Syngene 5% 500 276 75%
Can Fin 10% 2040 1300 100%
Bajaj Finance 10% 1250 960 100%
PNB Housing 10% 1320 1320 80%
Indusind Bank 5% 1400 1100 58%
Motilal Oswal 5% 900 860 45%
Rest I have a satellite Portfolio which is opportunistic one. It has the following stocks.
- Auro Pharma at 710
- Amara Raja at 880
- Granules at 125
- Take at 143
- Heritage at 500
- Asian Paints at 970
- Century Ply at 200
- HDFC Bank at 1100
- Shaily at 520
I am holding above ones from last 2+ years and the avg returns have been really bad. I am still adding Amara Raja and it is now 10% of my overall portfolio. The allocation will come down once I am done with my 10X portfolio.
Very small holdings(with money invested <= 5K)
- Caplin at 270
- FCEL at 21
- V Guard at 116
- NCL at 100
- India Cem at 90
- Insecticides at 450
- Shilpa Med at 500
Of all the above mentioned stocks. I am facing my biggest actual and opportunity losses in Aurobindo Pharma and it has dented my PF returns big time. Amara Raja, Take and Granules have not given any returns in last 2 years but I am adding Amara Raja as mentioned above.
Rationale for 10X in 10 year portfolio.
DMART - Huge opportunity, expensive valuations but I see them growing at 40% for next 2 years (they have recently expanded in Punjab also, saw 2 soon to be opened stores there), then 30% for next 3 years and 25% Plus for next 5 years. Because they are the most efficient players, I think they will kill other organized retail players also. Little debt makes me feel comfortable. I am assuming exit multiple of 60 since all 20% growing, cash throwing businesses are getting valued at this level. Demographic business can give it a kicker
Titan - Secular unorganized to organized story of Jewellery business. Margin are at historic low for Watch and Jewellery which may expand in future as per management interviews. New segments like marriage lehangas and all should give it a kicker. I am assuming 20% kind of growth story here.
Thyrocare - Preventive healthcare is increasing. They are the cheapest players with 40% kind of margins. I don’t see why they shouldn’t grow more than 25% for next 10 years. Their radiology business will also start firing from all cylinder in from next 3 years or so.
Narayana - Most efficient hospital player. I have high chances of going wrong here I think.
Page - Same old story but I expect women wear to drive the story forward.
Pokarna - Quartz is way better than any other counter top. After US market gets exhausted, they can even do a Kajaria in quartz in India. I am super bullish on this but higher debt levels have forced me to allocate only 5 %. This can even be a big multibagger if they execute perfectly.
Tasty Bite - QSR story. I personally loved their products and my friends too like it. They have been growing nicely. I am waiting for valuations to cool off a little and then it should be 20% plus growth story. Europe provides a big serviceable market.
Syngene - Impeccable Track record with US FDA and companies which hand them contracts. Cheap provider of research services as compared to developed world. I expect it to be a Infy kind of story but with the research services. Their upcoming facility in 2020 should be a kicker as it will enable them to manufacture complex molecules in a big number
Can Fin - When I bought it, it was undervalued. Now the valuations are on a tad higher side but I think the company can grow NII at 25%+ rate for next 10 years. Affordable housing should act as a kicker. For FY18, there should be an earnings jump of closer 50% because Can fin was provisioning NHB tax in the P&L statement whereas other companies were taking it out of reserves. I verified this after looking tax rates for Can Fin, Gruh and Repco. Since its ROE will should move to 26% or so this year, they should not dilute equity to go grow loan book at 25% but who knows.
Bajaj Finance - It is an Indian Consumer story for me. There is no big LED company and mobile phone company listed though we do have AC and WM companies. To play everything in one go, I decided to buy Bajaj Finance.
PNB housing - Bought this simply because they were growing at 50% or so rate. I was talking to my colleagues and found that everyone wants to take a housing loan from a state bank since they don’t take any hidden charges. Can fin also falls in the same bracket. Their NPAs are contained. It is more of a bull market ride case for me. Sadly it rose after Sohn conference and I could not finish my allocation since I was short on funds at that time.
Indusind bank - One of the fastest growing retail bank with little NPAs and higher return ratios. Mr Ramesh Sobti tends to have clear cut 3 year plans and he achieves them. It is more of a bet on Jockey since Yes Bank is considered to have a shady balance sheet. Also, their equity dilution is as prudent as HDFC bank. I did not buy RBL because as per my analysis, even if it grows at 35% for next 5 years, the equity dilution would result in 25% or so EPS growth. Their equity dilution of only ESOPS would be more than 10% plus they will have to dilute equity to raise funds as their return ratios are still quite bad though improving.
Motilal Oswal - It is a play on 3 segments. a) Wealth Management b) trading service provider c) Home Loan business. Their home loan business is growing at 100%. I trust Ramdeo Agarwal because I have always liked his understanding of businesses. It is more of a Jockey play and hence it has less weightage in my portfolio. It has run up a lot and will add only if market correct.
Note - The only reason to sell something in my 10X portfolio would be a business change, not valuations. I will add more than 100% of the allocation if there is a 20% or so correction in stock price with business prospects remaining intact.
I am maintaining 5% or so cash, which I will deploy only in sharp corrections.
Kindly provide your views on my portfolio and I would request senior members for their comments (any suggestion for stock additions or removals are highly appreciated with rationale’s).
Requesting @hitesh2710 @sajijohn @vivek_mashrani @Vivek_6954 @dd1474 @desaidhwanil to give their reviews.
Thanks
Kanv Garg
