Jaysags long-term Portfolio(15-20 years)

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
1

Hello long term Investors,

How I started:

I have started my investment in 2008, started with investing the company that was working for at that time without any prior knowledge/experience. only invited in very well known large cap IT and FMCG companies ( investment capital was too small).
That time I did a big mistake that, I have not invested consistently. Later I learned that, If would have started with MF consistently, I could have make more money than direct stock investment.

Holding Since 2008:
TATAELXSI (SOLD in 2022)
HDFC Bank ( Still holding)
L&T(SOLD in 2019)
HUL( Still holding)
TCS(SOLD in 2021)

Second phase 2015:

Started MF SIP and stopped new investment in direct stock. Every month I invested around 50% of my monthly salary in Axis and mirae asset funds with long track records above 15%

Third phase 2019 :
When I reviewed my PF I realised that, my direct stock investments are giving much higher returns than MF ( Stock CAGR:19% while my MF CAGR was only around 12%). Then I again slowly started investment in stocks directly.

I am still consider me as a beginner, as I could analyse only very few sectors/stocks in details. I think my plus point in investing is that, I haven’t sold anything since I started investing ( except some complete exit from the business that I cannot understand fully ) and mainly luck.

Added:
KITEX (SOLD in 2022)
RPL(SOLD in 2022)
SUNTV(SOLD in 2023)
TATA MOTORS (Still holding)

Current phase:
During COVID lockdown in 2020 March and April i top-up my holding with good quantity and added ITC, KPIT and few other stocks into my portfolio.

Below are my current holdings:

ASIANPAINTS(Avg : 1890)
BIRLASOFT(Avg: 140)
COCHINSHIP(Avg : 245)
DIVISLAB(Avg : 2911)
HDFCBANK(Avg : 1392)
HDFCLIFE(Avg :563)
HINDUNLIVR(Avg : 2306)
ITC(Avg : 196)
KPIT(Avg : 56)
UNITEDSPR(Avg : 634)
PIDLITIND(Avg : 2100)
RELIANCE(Avg : 1450)
TATA CONSUMER(Avg : 575)
TATA MOTORS (Avg : 123)
TITAN (Avg : 1113)
I am planning to reduce my total number of direct stock holding from 15 to 10 in medium term(3 years)

I will later update this space with additional details about how/why I selected/holding each stock.

Kindly provide your valuable feedback

BR,
Jay

9 Likes
2

You have very good blue chips.

I would recommend removing Birlasoft, not because company is bad. But Birla group is not much minority shareholder friendly. Their companies have cash but they do not disturbute as much as like TCS or ITC, etc.

Cheers

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Yes, you are right! Birlasoft in all terms an average performer and nothing spl about it. Since demerger they had ambitious targets of 1B$ top-line by 2024 and management commentary was convincing. I started adding small quaintieis during 2020 until its crossed 20PE(Avg 140). unfortunately I could not exit during its honeymoon period with decent return and now it showing some weekness and losing customers(quite usual in Mid size IT cos. “Always expect, unexpected” ). But I still believe it can achieveachive 1B$ review targets by 2024/25 with decent margins. I am planning to wait for couple of quoters to see how they will manage the current weakness and new customer additions.

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You have got nice portfolio…
But what was more interesting was your journey from 2008 till today…From stocks to mutual funds to back to stocks again.
I would like to dig this deeper, as this question is always onnthe minds of most investors whether to do direct investing in stocks or mutual funds?
And fortunately, your’s is a real.life case where you provide data of 15 years from 2008 to help come to some conclusions…
There are certain randomness in work here too…

  1. what if , since your stock selection was good , you ended up having 19% CAGR , superior to mutual funds of 12%…and this could have been a lot lesser or even negative if you would have chosen wrong stocks or your selected stocks had been wrong businesses. So any luck factor here?
  2. similarly, what if, your selected mutual.funds were average and hence given 12% returns, and had you invested in SBI small cap or Nippon small cap, may be your returns would.have crossed 20% CAGR …

So , now what decision you have taken?
All stocks? All MFs? Or combination of both?

Thirdly, your portfolio also has HUL , Pidilte, …do you have individual CAGR they have provided over long term…In recent times , these companies business performance is low and stock performance is also low.
So what must be your rationale behind retaining/ choosing them?
Kindly enlighten. Thanks

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Thank you for reviewing my portfolio and for your valuable feedback.

As I stated earlier I’ve started my investment with very very small capital and I was completely new to investment . I started investing in tata elxsi and TCS those companies that I was familiar with. There were two reason for me to investing those companies firstly I was working with Elxsi during that time and TCS because of its brand value. then I added hdfc l&t and hul based on recommendation from my stock broker.

The money I maid mainly due to the stockbroking compony terminal lady, she was so experianced close to 60 and more than 30 years of experience in stock market.
Even if I call her to sell my stock she don’t allow me to do that and she don’t let me buy if it is not fundamentally good. the only stock I myself selected was tata elxsi :slight_smile:

In that tata Elxsi given 30%, HDFC Bank 14% , HUL 18% . TCS 15% CAGR till date.

she used to call me every month first week and suggest me to add some quantity and she encouraged me to start MF SIP.

Sure, I was too lucky to have such stock broker to help me during my initial phase of my investment journey.

5 Likes
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Sorry, other questions I will reply you later when I have time

7

Finally i fully sold KPIT, one of the star performer in my PF. My investment average was close to just 60 rupees and exit average is Rs 1078 total holding time 3.5 years

I am sure KPIT will continue doing good with reasonable growth. But the current valuation is only justified if it can maintain the same growth. I personally foresee following medium to long term risk, based on that i made my mind

  1. New OEM addition will be difficult for KPIT (All low hanging fruits are already in )
  2. Most of the big OEMs are tightening their wallet, switching integration activities in house which is KPITs core business.
  3. KPITs diversification and acquisition are not in their core expertize area ( In those domains there are better players globally).
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