Is Buy and Forget a Myth?

In my opinion and experience its not a myth. If initial choices were made with some deliberation and keeping value in mind then not acting on the portfolio indeed can do wonders.

I started my direct investment journey in 2016 but started serious investing only in 2019. Initially I was tentative as to how I should invest… invest small amounts gradually, or invest lump-sum… invest in concentrated portfolio of stocks or maintain a fairly diversified portfolio. So, I invested in 14 stocks in Feb 2019 and invested equal lump-sum in each on the 1st day. However, market volatility scared me off and I liquidated entire portfolio and only again started building a diversified portfolio in a gradual manner a few months later.

I, however, kept monitoring that portfolio (in case I hadn’t redeemed it) and judged my active performance w.r.t that. And I have no shame in saying that my active performance has been significantly inferior.

So, in my analysis, the prerequisites of creating a Buy and Forget portfolio is the following:

  1. Give UTMOST importance to the management. Choose managements that have a long track record of execution and good corporate governance.
  2. Getting entry valuation right is very important. Better to start such a portfolio during bearish market.
  3. Choose businesses that have long structural growth runway.
  4. Choose market leaders which are much smaller in size compared to the market opportunity.

My own performance has been lagging mainly due to following reasons.

  1. I bought more when narratives were peaking, i.e. during bull market.
  2. I booked loss in positions where entry valuation was high and subsequently the industry went into severe headwinds (IT, Pharma).
  3. My initial positions in the stocks were less during the bull run up. I built positions only when the run up started and I became more confident.

The final fact is that it is impossible to get all the bets doing well. Some will under-perform surely. But, the performance of your out-performers will take care of the rest.

P.S: I understand that the timeline to judge buy and forget portfolio is much longer. So, I will keep monitoring the portfolio.

9 Likes