Other points mentioned by you don’t support this statement. It is typo or sarcastic comment.
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I said multiple issues, which would mean including that. So i am clear on what i said. Neither it is a typo nor a sarcasm.
To add…
In the era of social distancing, will the Indian Railways operate with full 100% capacity?
In my opinion, till the corona issue is over, the middle birth from AC3 and Sleeper classes must be removed for the safety of public. However, if this happens this would cause ~20-25% loss in revenue from passenger tickets.
I am looking at even much bigger impact. If you look at their revenue break up, about 55% comes from catering, 9% water, 24% tourism and 12% ticketing. So as long as the trains are not running 88% guaranteed “Zero” revenues for IRCTC. Now the balance 12% which is ticketing is subject to running ALL the trains with normal occupancy, which is not the case either as no trains will run until Jun 30 except Shramik and few special trains. Now for IRCTC the only source of income (which is negligible i guess) is from few Shramik and special trains meant for helping stuck migrant labors, students and others. We need to see how long these will run amid rising daily corona virus cases across several states. Now as you mentioned, if they remove middle birth for social distancing norms, then you could imagine what loss we are staring at. IMO it is certain that difficult days are ahead for IRCTC and other travel tourism, entertainment, restaurant, hotel stocks.
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Covid impact on IRCTC - Q1 almost gone & seems they are NOT confident about Q2 as well
Other revenues are almost nil in Q1 & most probably in Q2 as well
With trains cancelled till august 12th Q1 and Q2 are going to be washouts. I bought rites a few days ago since irctc was way too overpriced. However, I will be very interested if it does find it’s way down near 800 or 700 over the next month. That could be a good entry point. They had about 1600 crores in cash including trade receivables and I think that could be enough for them to not go bankrupt over the next few months. When everything is back to normal we may be facing a company under pressure with less cash reserves and its core business model not giving profits for a year. Buying near 700 should mitigate these risks somewhat.
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Current ticket booking is 2 lac tickets /day compared to 9 lac tickets / day (pre-covid levels)
It translates to 22% revenue from normal levels of ticket booing
Catering business is still heavily impacted as passengers prefer home cooked / pre cooked ready to eat food
100cr of food sale in Shramik express without any profit
Don’t see any risk related to E-ticket booking charge waive off
Capex
- Purchased land near statue of unity (Gujarat) for making budget hotel
- Another budget hotel planned in Lucknow
- Other Kitchen & related equipment capex on hold due to change in customer preference
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This is an interesting update :
God knows, what would happen to stakeholders.
Disc : Not invested
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hi all,
IRCTC present performance:
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Internet ticketing business: Only 230 trains are presently running as against 1600 plus trains during pre covid time, hence very less booking thus very less commission.
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Catering: Only selling ‘ready to eat’ food that too on demand basis. Most people must be avoiding buying foods. IRCTC must be getting very low licensee fees for leasing catering work.
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Railneer: Fewer passengers hence fewer demand. Also IRCTC has stopped commissioning new plants.
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Tourism: Most affected segment of IRCTC with almost zero business.
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Tejas trains: Not running Tejas trains since 1st lockdown.
From above, we will see sharp decline in top line in Q1 and Q2 and since cost of running offices across the country and HR cost will be same as before, we may see negative bottom line as well. Company has reserves of 1168 cr and with no debt. company can ride easily for 01 year like that.
PS: Booked profit at 1420 level and looking for opportunity to buy/invest again below 800 level in next 03-06 month. I think that once vaccine for covid 19 is launched, people will gradually start travelling in trains.
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This is in partnership with IRCTC.
IRCTC will be worth looking at if some normalcy comes in the trains’ movement. Further, if The OFS happens in the near time there is a possibility of lower valuation. Just look at recent OFS by Bharat Dynamics, it was offered at 14-15% discount on CMP. In my opinion, before the OFS retail investors should be cautious in investing in IRCTC.
Disc: not invested
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Bad publicity for IRCTC…they should embrace such people rather than arresting them. Very feudal thinking…
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Headlines are different than actual event
The details in link are
Quote -----
He then decided to finance the app through in-app purchases where users were asked to buy a stack of 10 virtual coins for Rs 20. After the first three free bookings, the app charged five coins per transaction — ie, a nominal fee of Rs 10 per booking.
The Railway Police claims Yuvarajaa earned Rs 20 lakh through Super Tatkal between 2016 and 2020.
----unquote
Irctc earns by permitting API usage by paytm, amazon & others. Now just think if this brilliant mind was creating conflict for them or not.
If you are brilliant & have better ideas, you must follow the process & you get rewarded rather doing anything as per your own convenience causing trouble to other business relations.
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key points from today’s interaction with management
- Will restart Tejas Trains when passenger demand resumes
- Tejas trains break even at 68-69% occupancy
- Legal opinion for OFS being sought as target is 75% in 3 year
- eTicket booking has resumed to 4.6 Lk/Day (waiting list is lower) vs 9 Lk/Day pre-Covid (25% wait list)
-Zero based time table - more line/path capacity - capex - 260 cr (deferred internet booking & kitchen upgradation)
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In October, this happened, leaked user data was found being sold on the Dark Web:
Now, this has happened:
How are investors supposed to trust IRCTC with repeated data breach and/or misuse? Isn’t this a sign of unscrupulous management? Boarders/Investors, please share your views, thank you.
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Vast majority of middle class folks who use trains are not so privacy conscious. While we do feel the pinch when the misuse of our data becomes a topic of a news article, I am sure most certain most companies we invest or interact with sell our data and don’t give two hoots about privacy. Its just that they are not on the news. Nonetheless what IRCTC did is not pardonable.
Its high time that these firms understand the value of user data privacy and act in protecting them. Stringent laws need to be enabled.
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Thank you for your response.
There is a HUGE difference between data sharing through consumer consent and data theft and misuse.
Companies you refer to engage in data sharing which is a pre-requisite these days. Right from Facebook to the start-up sphere, data sharing is common. However, data theft and misuse is an entirely different issue.
The vast majority you refer to is not aware of the repercussions of such a large scale data theft. This doesn’t mean that management will ignore such cyber attacks and misuse of user data. It is not just about your name, email and contact number but your payment details and access to storage on your phones. your photographs, videos, et al all are at risk.
If IRCTC products are not safe, sooner or later users will start identifying the VERY REAL threats associated with booking through IRCTC digital sphere. They must address these issues right away but I see no effort from the management to even address these concerns.
This is an important point to be noted, especially for vigilant investors.
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My recent experience with IRCTC (aka Indian Railways). For a 5 hour journey, there were many cancellations. Eventually return had to be on bus. Whats interesting is Shatabdi got cancelled for both sides.
Even with limited capacities being operational, if trains are getting cancelled at such a high frequency. What kind of impact it would have on revenues of IRCTC specially.
Also, would like to know, if this is common scenario and has anyone faced similar situation.
Disc : not invested, was tracking, now interest is diminishing…
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