Hi Vikas - No, that ~20% figure is as of 2017—so they did not buy anything recently—just distributed to demerged entities…
Thanks
Hafizul
The news on a new trial for COVID-19 on MirrorUK may boost investors’ sentiment. If someone has update on this kindly share.
1 Like
Nice! This was one of the reasons I bought this stock. Anti-inflammation is very useful property for an OTC anti-pyretic/pain-killer, to be deployed against flus which affect respiratory system in general.
Disc: Half of the family are doctors and other half pharmacists.
5 Likes
Hi Jaman,
This is a randomized trial which is yet to start on humans. So we should take with a pinch of salt
Excerpts from the article:
"Theoretically, this treatment, given at this time, should be beneficial.
“But of course, this is based on animal studies. It’s based on case reports, we need to do a trial to show that the evidence actually matches what we expect to happen.”
Half of the patients enrolled in the trial will receive standard care and the other half will receive standard care plus the special ibuprofen formulation.
“If successful, the global public health value of this trial result would be immense given the low cost and availability of this medicine.”
1 Like
anyone has info of when the BASF ibuprofen plant is planned to start/or status of it ( it was supposed to in 2021 ) , or would it be delayed more due to corona. That’s possibly the only risk(in terms of competition) IOLCP price will have ?
disc: invested.
Can anyone help me from where to find ibuprofen API ?. Live price for tracking purpose
I have read this very informative thread over the last 2 days. Thank you everyone for insightful comments!
Following are my few cents worth of observations:
- Positives: Company is debt-free, declaring dividends, positive free cash flows for last 1-2 years. Market leader for ibuprofen where it is backward integrated. Going forward with more focus on healthcare (at least until a solid covid vaccine is invented, and hopefully even after that) demand for ibuprofen should remain solid.
- Negatives: Generally, doctors advice not to eat ibuprofen if it can be helped. Im surprised people have not talked about the general negative health benefits of ibuprofen here. Example. Right now, company’s revenue seem to be largely dependent on Ibuprofen. It is great that the company is diversifying. But that has not happened yet. This is possibly one reason for the low pe multiples. There is some talk about related party transactions. From the limited experience I have, it is usual for small companies promoters to be slightly less immaculate than the blue chip companies management. This is a risk and well reflected in the stock price as well. Buying a company is always a risk-reward tradeoff. The stock is cheap for a reason. How the future will pan out, noone knows. Those who are ok with the level of risk would happily take it on and bear the fruits as well as the negative outcomes.
Disc: Not invested yet, but planning to build a position of 1-2% of portfolio in coming few days.
2 Likes
On 08 June 2020 IOL Chemicals and Pharmaceutical has allotted 7,00,000 Equity Shares of Rs. 10/- each at a premium of Rs. 195/- per share to M/s NCVI Enterprises Limited (Promoter group company)
This was in exercise of the option attached with the Warrants, allotted on 30 March 2019. The said shares shall remain locked-in for a period of three year from the date of trading approval.
It seems that excising option at this time and locked-in period of three yrs reflects positive outlook about the company.
2 Likes
IOL cp result is out. It seems that result is not up to the mark, but not that disappointing. The revenue is near to 2000 which is in line with indicated by Mr. Vijay Garg in his interview. resultmarch20.pdf (477.6 KB) .
Did any VP members attend the meeting? Any commentary from management?
Yesterday, Mr. Garg was on CNBC and told that ibuprofane prices have shot up to $18 and gave a guidance for 20-25% growth in top-line for FY21.
2 Likes
IOL CP CEO Vijay Garg’s interview.
Indicating Ibuprufen price at $18. Sees price to stay between $18-20.
Low dependence on China with now starting to develop procedure for zero dependence.
Expansion for 4 new products with 3 new plants at around Rs150-200 Cr all through internal accruals only.
Here is the interview link:
4 Likes
I have complied list of things discussed with Mr. Vijay Garg on CNBC latest interview. Overall company prospect looks good.
| Ibuprofen capacity | Ibuprofen full capacity 12,000 MT |
|---|---|
| Expecting price to be $18-20/kg | |
| Expecting to reach capacity of 11,500 MT | |
| Ethyl Acetate | Full capacity is of 1,10,000 Ton |
| LY 85,000 Ton | |
| This year targeting for 1,00,000 Ton | |
| 2021 Overall Revenue Growth | 20-25% |
| Import from China | Expecting total 2,300 Cr in FY 21 |
| out of it 200 Cr from China | |
| Ibuprofen - only one raw material, Sodium Metal comes from China | |
| Our team has already develop method to come out of Sodium Metal | |
| Within 6 Month will launch new process with Sodium Hydroxide | |
| Acetic acid- 50% capacity comes from China | |
| We have other sources like Taiwan Malaysia | |
| % Revenue | 85% From two Product, Ibuprofen and Ethyl acetate |
| 15% comes from new product. | |
| 300 Cr from new product and for this we don’t have alternative of China | |
| Sale to China | 2% goes to China |
| Isobutyl Benzene | |
| Capex | 150-200 Cr Capex for FY 21 from internal accruals |
| targeted 3 new plants for new product in FY 21 | |
| Expansion of Metformin | |
| Coming up with Gabapentin | |
| New plant for Clopidogrel and Fenofibrate |
6 Likes
Company now converting itself from single product dependence to multi products. This is a major plus point.
Many investors shy away from IOL because of its single product dependence.
There were intitially 3 major negatives from investors point of view:
- Debt- now debt free
- Related party transaction- some more clarity needed here
- Single product dependence- now converting
Also MD promises to conduct investor calls from Q3 onwards.
Disc: Invested
3 Likes
This is from BASF report for 2018.
IOLCP shows no effect from the BASF, Bishop, Texas plant (which was expanded in 2019).
Also, Ludwigshafen is only planned for 2022.
So, IOLCP can enjoy the ibuprofen party for 2 more years looks like!
6 Likes
Tx capacity is of 5000 Tonnes.
Do you know what will be the capacity of upcoming 2022 plant.
IOLCP corporate presentation from 2015.
https://www.iolcp.com/corporate-presentation.pdf
Important points,
- Lamotrigine and Metformin were already commercialized then
- Fenofibrate and Clopidrogel were already planned.
Yet, these (and possibly few more) altogether do not account for more than 15% of topline.
Maybe now they can accelerate with increased cash flows.
Other factors:
Company has 12,000 MTPA (metric? tonnes per annum) Ibuprofen capacity.
Worldwide market is approx 44,000 MTPA, growth rate is 2% approx.
So, IOLCP caters to ~30% of market. Rest spread over ~5 other players.
BASF plant in 2021 can add 6,000 MTPA, best guess, slightly bigger than Texas plant (which was expanded). Possibly not going to be margin killer (for IOLCP, before other products start to make contribution).
Reasoning:
- Maybe temporary but enough if it sustains 2-3 quarters, likely covid is trigger
- IOLCP is the only integrated player, IBB or any other intermediate will be the bottleneck for any other manufacturer.
- BASF with european plant will likely have higher costs so cannot compete on basis of low prices.
Risk:
- With commodity anybody can try to increase capacity if they think the prices are favorable to the risk-reward. So, the competition, is more than BASF, just a reminder.
- Even Mr. Gupta, MD, says they have long-term contracts (a year or more approx.) for large part of production capacity, so they cannot take much advantage of these elevated spot-prices now in $18-20 range. When some contracts expire etc. and renewed at which price are bit unpredictable. Overall their realization will lag the market by $3-5.
Source:
Disc: holding
5 Likes