Things changed overnight, SGX Nifty up 800 points, we may witness heavy short covering tomorrow as all macro triggers have changed, what i have learnt is not to believe in macros too much as you never know when things will turn around and human psychology is not to enter at lower levels as you believe stock will go down further.
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@cshar I was not looking to enter ..I was trying to stay at the sidelines with some cash as I was almost sure about the bleak future and global recession thingy 
.Trump uncle changed everything last night as I said in my post . This is the first time I listened to macro shacro ignoring Mr. Lynch and got foxed. But what can one doā¦Howard Marks, Druckenmilar, Ackman everyone said this time it is differentā¦we have no template to go by and nobody knows anything .Cash is a valid poisition etc.
Maybe if this situation came up when the portfolio was near its high ,I would not have done it but after last 4 months drawdown,I did not have the stomach to digest another 20-30% drawdown .
Are you fully invested ?
@MomentumStocks Maybe will try AMO. But it never really works unless I try to but at UC value .But with 20% circuit..its too high to pay .
IMHO,There is not much wrong with economy, recent economic data is strong and also the low base effects will kick in from June quarter results.Also,
- Many exporting companies may show better results this quarter because many clients would have stockpiled to avert the tariffs.
- Gov spending will kick in as the new FY has started and the budget allocations will translate into orders .
The market was already starting to position for the same but the Trump tantrums played spoilsport.Unless he drops further nukes , Indian markets are more likely to stay firm .
No worries, it happens. Over last 8-9 months, I have done lot of switching of bets, have increased investments by 20%, still down by 19% from ATH. Howard marks stated history never repeat but rhymes, it is true for both upside and downside. 
It is always a tough call to come in cash, my level to come in cash was 21600 on Nifty that could have stamped a long bear market, still have set this level as exit if comes. Reason i didnāt sell was that by applying steep tariff, you canāt sustain for long if you import 90% of goods and India was relatively better positioned in this all tariff saga.
My assessment is this issue is over for now and FII will look again at India.
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Yesā¦After 3 years in the game, one thing i got clear ā itās always different when I am scared. Panic has no pattern. When things fall apart, I am basically alone with own thoughts (and a plummeting portfolio).
Honestly, if even one guy had confidently said āTrump doesnāt want to kill the US economyā or āDe-dollarisation is a 2047 problem,ā I would have bought more. But alasā¦ I thought wouldnāt be able close a quick kidney deal. thought kidney markets are as illiquid as small caps. So not much to add unless I shed some from brand new salary
Lesson Learned: When panic is everywhere ā and I mean everywhere ā when every tweet, newsbyte, and WhatsApp forward screams doom, Iām probably near the bottom.
At one point, after reading about de-dollarisation and global collapse, I dreamt ācities shrinking, no pvt jobs, everyone cycling ..people going back to villages, only farmers smilingā
@Cshar
Sharmaji,
- How do we know weāve arrived at the point of uncertainty? By the time it hits, weāre already down 20ā30% ā in my case, a crisp 30%. Half the gains? Vaporized.
- When to sell? to be honest i am mostly clueless on sell part. If Iāve already cleaned up my PF (good names in, junk out), then selling after a drawdown feels pointless. Like pressing the brakes after iāve crashed.
- My problem: too many stocks. I get excited and load up on every shiny new thing in a sector. Iām a slow buyer, but once a story clicks, I keep adding like a true SIP warrior.
Lesson I want to learn:
- How to panic earlyā¦ just the right amount
earlier it was july-24 then dec 25 then Jan-25. - And how to protect gains without becoming a monk. (The idea of a shorter PF keeps buzzing in my headā¦ like a mosquito at night) ive consistently failed to trim portfolio and found myself addicted to 30 names minimum.
@MomentumStocks
Momentum bro !
How do we judge if recovery wonāt come after July?
If I consider govāt capex is rolling, RBI cuts rates, rural demand holding upā¦ where in your opinion exactly is the economy limping?
Lesson Iām chasing:
- From hereon How to spot the future runners. any ideas on hot sectors ?
Iāve held on to power (TARIL, JSW Energy) and EMS (PGEL, KRN)ā theyāve held up decently. Continuing with Dividend(MSTC,Oil,VDEANTA) and manuf(ceinsys,Timetechno,wock) new pharma(bluejet,onesource)
Trying to test ideas that stayed strong JanāApr like Chambal Fert, GMR Airports, ITC Hotels.
Only one true bottom-up bet i am trying for 1st time: Carborundum.
Otherwise, FOMO Bhai is my second name. I Buy after a 20% rally, thinking Iām early. 
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on AMO you have to put at upper circuit. The amo works by taking an average. No one will bid at uppercircuit so stocks wont do uppercircuit from the getgo. They might pull and push and reach there but it ensures you get a fill at near bottom
On the economy, I think the economy was strugging before Trump was elected. Trump based mania lifted the shares up. Many people dont realise that its not the economy that matters. Its the funds that goes into the equity that matters if the equity market will be bouyount or struggle.
The largest market like it or not is the bond market in any country. The little funds that move out of bond markets along with retail money move the markets but largely big funds move the large caps and the small caps to an extent.
Like the rich take prime property in a city and the non prime property prices move but if the demand for prime property falls there is knock on effect on the non prime properties
Taking this analogy a bit further, bonds become attractive at higher interest rate. This is not specifically linked to interest rates decision by fed. Bond interest rates move irrespective of it.
In the present scenario, you can look up, Japan was selling bonds making interest rate expensive. That caused Trump to succumb. Look it up on twitter.
The US market and funds really drive a lot of other markets. The fed has been trying to tame inflation. All these will cause a knock on effect.
Right now markets are bulling but not everyone is even certain the all time high will be breached.
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2025 is relentlessā¦.one after another calamity is coming up and luckily fading out in rapid succession ! Though the shadow of war is hopefully gone for now , and most fancy economic reset theories seems to be discarded after China USA discussions on Tariff etc, with Trump as Potus,something or other will always come up.I was sitting on about 20% cash since April 10th and is still sitting on 12% ,in between I have bought and sold stocks as the situation is more conducive to swing trading in good stocks rather than holding .
I had kept a few random back up copies of my portfolio starting from January this year and my current portfolio is barely 3% ahead with all this churning compared to the portfolio I had back in Jan . Considering I was heavily in cash this past 40 days, its not too bad but not good enough to disprove the theory that holding on during uncertain periods is better than too much churning .It would be interesting to see which portfolio wins during the peak of next bull run ( whenever it comes!) .
Current portfolio value is about 8% below the peak achieved in December .
Some random thoughts:
Investing is the only field where most teachers suggest doing nothing is superior to doing anything! (Except maybe meditation).I have not seen any other field where high achievers so blatantly ask junior followers to be mediocre and stay happy with mediocre returns in the hope of a long life and resultant compounding gains . Perhaps the idea that being inactive and ordinary can lead you to wealth over someone who strives hard to do better, is too alluring for most people .Alluring enough so that they do not look at what the idol in Omaha and his successful acolytes did in their early years and focus only on his conveniently inactive later years . Just the amount of gyan being peddled on media and youtube about Buffet and his modus operandi is enough to make one sick of it .
Admittedly ,Picking outperformers one after another consistently is nearly impossible and doing it right 50% of the time is very difficult but so is doing well in almost anything else . Its like telling people that nobody can study in IIT as success rate is less than 1% and its better to be pass secondary and steadily accumulate tips and grow rich by delivering for Zomato .
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Nice post and looks it just came from heart, some crude realities of gyan given by so called UHNI community. Vijay Kedia is down by 30%, so you have better performed than him
Holding forever is a myth for 95% of equity universe as no business has a very high entry barrier or a niche if there is than market will keep it at high premium and returns in long term will be mediocre. I find investing in stocks which are going through a bad patch are better investments as lot of human intervention is out and value emerges which can be realised over 2-3 years period.
My assessment is markets may rise however major stocks will remain range bound, it s high contra play now.
During last 7-8 months, i increased my capital allocation by 20% and niw sitting on 2% loss on ATH achieved during Oct 24. Hoping a new ATH my May endā:joy:
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In no other profession does luck play as big a role as it plays in investing. Time is the only antidote for luck, hence, the suggestion of doing nothing unless you identify a mistake. More action does not equal to more success in investing, in fact every action in markets has slightly less than 50% probability of being a success. Hence more action (read trades) actually reduces your probability of success even further (at least mathematically).
It is important to accept volatility as a part of investing. Unlike traders who thrive on volatility, investors will rather ignore it completely.
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That 50% thing is correct for a coin toss because it does not have agency .It is correct as well in stock picking if you just pick a random stock without knowing anything about it . But investors do not pick stocks like that ā¦and stock picking is a skill .Luck does play part in it but skill is material else kohli would have same chance of hitting a sixer as Siraj .One can always reduce the chance and quantity of loss and maximize the profits by various means .
You made the point of selling only when you have made a mistake but what is the probability of taking a sell decision correctly ? I bet ,if you take enough samples it would also be a little less than 50% .
Even if we agree that more churning leads to less for most people,its not true for many.Check how much Buffet churned before 69 and his return rates for that period and after 69 . Point is the mean or the median of a statistical spread is not necessarily the only outcome for everyone . The outliers are also a possibility to be aimed at .
For all long term investors , just check whats the probability of one starting investing at 11 and continue till 96 ?
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Its impossible to make large money in stock markets just by factor of luck. Art of selling is key skill which will enable efficient allocation of capital, due to market exuberance, a good fairly valued stock is taken up so sharply in a short period that it becomes a bad stock, switching at that point is advised else you will go in time correction phase. Maximum of my bets are 2-3 year holdings, still find very less value in markets for next 6-9 months.
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If there would be no skill, I would not have my business, right? (I am a SEBI registered Research Analyst). That was not my point.
My point is that luck plays a much more significant role in investing (and even more so in trading) as compared to any other profession.
When you buy a stock, someone else is selling it. Both believe their decision to be correct and based on skill. Whose decision will be correct? and how is that one we will have more skill than the opponent, always?
Churn when we know there is a mistake or there are better opportunities is fine or some other valid reason (which I assume Buffet always had). My point is that churn should not be based on price movements but be based on logical decision making process.
Thank you for a interesting discussion.
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The beauty of Investing is, both can be correct (for themselves). Thats becaise mere buying or selling alone does not determine a correct decision in investing.
Also there maybe no need to have more skill than anybody else in investing. Thats why. someone rightly said in this forum once, that investing is a lonely pursuitā¦and hence psychologically more engagingā¦
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