Sorry for your loss, regrets are always part of stock markets, there is one saying in stock market, “opinions doesn’t matter”. I had bought Jeena Sikho life around 700 levels however discussed with one of friend and lost conviction, rest is history. 
Better strategy is to go with new bet and keep a strict stop loss, sell if you are convinced fundamentals have deteriorated. Look at Wockhardt, Samhi Hotels. Centum Electronics is one which i am evaluating right now.
At the end of the fifth calendar year of my investment journey, the portfolio is roughly at 4X. In the past 12 months, the portfolio is up by 56% and in the past six months,It’s up by 18% . Considering in the past six months the major indexes have been rangebound, the portfolio performance has been satisfactory. To my mind, this performance also highlights the importance of the fact ,that one must ignore the frequent Doomsday prophecies by the media and the various influencers, and sometimes even the regulators. In the past 12 months, the market has dropped by nearly 10% or more at least four times(Buch bomb, election result day, LTCG shock on budget day and the latest Inflation and GDP related drop in October November) and recovered. if I had stayed on the sidelines believing these prophecies, my portfolio would have been at a much lower level, and I would not have been able to re-enter until the next big crash. Nobody knows when the next big crash will happen but if they knew ,the crash would not be a crash but a slow slide . In fact, the mutual funds had started this game of declaring that they are sitting on cash and there is a bubble since October 2023. Even I got scared last year and took out about 8% of my portfolio and put it into PGINVIT , since it had a limited downside and nearly 12% yield. 14 months down the line, it is already testing that downside of 15% and rest of the portfolio is up by more than 60% from then.
Compared to last year ,this year my portfolio is more heavily loaded with small caps and micro caps and large and mid caps make up only 30% of the portfolio. Even then most of these are stocks like ITC, Polycab, VBL. These are not current active investments and have their place in the portfolio, either as a balance against volatility or as remnants of past Multibagger investments .These taken together with pginvit and Piccadilly agro constitute one third of portfolio .So, my active portfolio needs to generate better returns to keep up the outperformance . Last year Wockhardt, Ceinsys, SHAILY(Thanks to @phreakv6 mostly), Amara Raja , PGEL etc did a lot along with those quick 50% plus trades on POCL,Garware,Shilchar,Hind rect,Sharda etc. Let’s see how it goes in 2025…
More: Edited to fix typos.
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Dear Ghanshyam Das Ji and others, Greetings!
The thread title reminded me of my own late start —2.5 yr, 1.8X kinda gain, dividends included (and maybe a sprinkle of luck). As i am hooked to alpha returns, mostly dabbling in small and micro-caps.
From What I’ve noticed (just my dartboard observations)::
- 2023: Transformers, power, and tech seemed to have their moment. Names like Taril, Newgen, IZMO, Servotech, and HBL popped up as my accidental stars.
- 2024: The same sectors showed promise, with industrials sneaking in (Ceinsys, TT, Shaily, etc.).
- Oct 2024 onwards: I observed Micro-caps have been sprinting ahead of small/mid-caps. Feels like they’ve had their chai and are now running on turbo mode.not sure if its one off kinda divergence or if such divergence is going forward.
Recently, I found EMS/RAC names (PGEL, KRN, VOEPL) doing a decent sprint too. do you think 2025 might stick to the old favorites—transformers, power, tech, and industrials—with EMS possibly adding some spice ?
Since I’m no “numbers guy,” I mostly guess (ahem, analyze) demand-side trends and try to spot growth stories. Managing a sub-crore portfolio feels like herding cats, but squeezing out 0.5X returns seems doable. Wht would you opine to study growth ?
Whn we manage smaller pf shy of crore it sounds like its possible to gather 0.5X kinda returns per annum and it brings me to my burning questions:
- Does the 0.5X magic still happen when one is managing crores PF, or do the returns get shy at scale?
- How many names do you run in your PF? I run with 30+ names and always end up like a waiter juggling too many trays—dropping sell opportunities left and right.
- What are names worth studying which can run alpha race in 2025? Asking for my “research.”
Disclosure:
- The names I mentioned are NO recommendations—they’re just part of my experiments.
- Me a dart-throwing monkey, Me no SEBI-registered analyst.
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Here are the answers …
1.Does the 0.5X magic still happen when one is managing crores PF, or do the returns get shy at scale?
Somehow you are assuming I have a multi crore portfolio.I do not …and it’s very well shy of a crore . I am trying to multiply a fixed amount into a crore …and I am still far away but it’s going faster than expected as the target CAGR was 26% .But even at this small scale , for me it’s getting increasingly difficult to put in the same 2% into an idea . But this sense of extra caution is diminishing with time in market .In my 5 years …except in 2022 , the returns were 50% plus but 2022 was very bad …negative 10% .So over a longer timeframe , 50% is probably a bit too much to expect.
2.How many names do you run in your PF?
40 + most of the time . In 20-22 it was between 20 to 30 but with larger amount of money to deploy and my inability to put large amount in a single stock , the number increased . However, all of them does not need too much watching . I do not put too much effort into understanding in detail about large caps or mid caps …this is done well by many analysts and media . These are mostly swing trades …I just try to buy at drawdowns and trade out at peaks unless it seems better to hold on for some fundamental reason.
- What are names worth studying which can run alpha race in 2025?
I am just hoping Wockhardt,Ceinsys,Piccadily and Shaily will do well . Finding alpha is not easy and till now I have had only 4 but failed to hold on in two of them …HBL power and Garware …I got doublers instead of multipliers . Only Piccadilly(25x and counting) and borosil renewables(8x) gave grand results. I have a section of 10 stocks where I hope to get good returns in a couple …but damned if I know which two ! Problem is one needs to catch them young when future glory is invisible …
Ceinsys, Wockhardt both are from this set of 10 and have tripled … but rest is yet to do much .I think Valiant communication and axiscades are good companies to study along with zaggle .Asian Energy services and Eimco elecon also can have better future in next couple of years .
I am not a methodical stock picker and mostly ride ideas from this valuepicker community which resonates with my way of thinking . Except Piccadilly agro and VBL(7x) ,I have not found any other stock on my own till date that has generated alpha for me .
Disc: invested in named stocks mostly from lower levels .
16 Likes
Uff …what a start to the new year ! Only god knows what lies ahead but since this thread is for my future reading pleasure ,I have to note down stuff…
On first two days it went up to ATH and has come down about 7% from that .This time around smallcaps seem to be more affected hence this situation .I am by no means sure how long this will go on and how low it will go but when these index levels came about in October/ November , my portfolio was about 11% lower than present…so the rebalancing worked.I was at it again this week…
Sold
====
Samhi Hotels @ minor loss because lower conviction and ITC hotels will be in portfolio soon.One hotel stock is enough for me.
Vadilal @minor loss . On second thoughts…no immediate trigger and no idea when the family feud thing cease to be an overhang .
RaymondLSL@ 12% loss. Not finding bottom and not sure how long markets will decide on a valid price . Better things available in market.
Shaktipumps@53% gains . It was a momentum pick and a case of getting a bite of a missed feast as I had bought it on kusum story back in 2022 but sold off in panic .Sold because I was afraid of losing the gains as it had risen steeply.Already seems like a mistake.
Nuvama@ par …no gain or loss this time .Decided to switch to DAM .
Reduced
======
Eimco Elecon (nearly doubled and then halved…curious and I got premonitions about a bad results from recent notifications.
Allcargo (running out of patience…been holding for almost 2.5 years and negative returns)
Bought
=======
CARTRADE
TD Power
Kilburn
TARIL
DAM capital
Syrma SGS
Hariom Pipes
Jash
100% invested now and nothing much to do anymore apart from buying prayer beeds .
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I have a question on TD Power. The promoter holding reduced from 58.43% to 34.27% in September 2023. Is that something to be concerned about?
I liked this one. But isnt 100% invested a risk at this juncture.
Can ideal scenario be an weekly sip into mentioned stocks.
@tarunks9 Not much . It’s more than a year since the event and in the meantime sales, profit, eps all have grown very well along with price . At that time also market took it well because well known funds bought from the promoters . I have seen promoters sell to funds and profit etc going flat in case of Shivalik bimetal ,so your question is justified, but in this case that has not happened so it’s a green flag for me.
@hardik_shah1 Of course ! But any direct investment is a risk . This portfolio started as 10% of my net worth and now is at about 30% . There are mutual funds like PPFAS and FD etc to hold the fort for me .Anyway, I have a very diversified portfolio and the recent buys are either strong in RSI or have really strong sectoral tailwinds and good results to boot .Anyway, the last round of picks done during oct November drawdown looks like this even after today . Not in screenshot is Hind rect and Shakti pumps which were both bought and sold in last 80 days with 50% returns.Hence the overconfidence 
SIP is just not for me .I do lump sum during drawdowns even when putting money in mutual funds .
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Please share your thesis for TD Power including fundamental trigger going forward. Though I have read about the various usage of its products , I am unable to conclude anything on FY26 revenue & EBIDTA margin.
thanks
Neither can I . But , the management guidance says that next two quarters should show about 680 to 700 crores of revenue with near 20% margin .If that happens, results should look good and market may rerate it. For past 3 years ,profit has increased at 44% or so . Company is debt free, has good prospects in gas turbines, gas powered generators and waste to energy generators .The price rise has been steady and does not look exorbitant .For me that’s enough …as I do not usually get too deep into the numbers and assumption of numbers .
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