Sorry for your loss, regrets are always part of stock markets, there is one saying in stock market, “opinions doesn’t matter”. I had bought Jeena Sikho life around 700 levels however discussed with one of friend and lost conviction, rest is history. 
Better strategy is to go with new bet and keep a strict stop loss, sell if you are convinced fundamentals have deteriorated. Look at Wockhardt, Samhi Hotels. Centum Electronics is one which i am evaluating right now.
At the end of the fifth calendar year of my investment journey, the portfolio is roughly at 4X. In the past 12 months, the portfolio is up by 56% and in the past six months,It’s up by 18% . Considering in the past six months the major indexes have been rangebound, the portfolio performance has been satisfactory. To my mind, this performance also highlights the importance of the fact ,that one must ignore the frequent Doomsday prophecies by the media and the various influencers, and sometimes even the regulators. In the past 12 months, the market has dropped by nearly 10% or more at least four times(Buch bomb, election result day, LTCG shock on budget day and the latest Inflation and GDP related drop in October November) and recovered. if I had stayed on the sidelines believing these prophecies, my portfolio would have been at a much lower level, and I would not have been able to re-enter until the next big crash. Nobody knows when the next big crash will happen but if they knew ,the crash would not be a crash but a slow slide . In fact, the mutual funds had started this game of declaring that they are sitting on cash and there is a bubble since October 2023. Even I got scared last year and took out about 8% of my portfolio and put it into PGINVIT , since it had a limited downside and nearly 12% yield. 14 months down the line, it is already testing that downside of 15% and rest of the portfolio is up by more than 60% from then.
Compared to last year ,this year my portfolio is more heavily loaded with small caps and micro caps and large and mid caps make up only 30% of the portfolio. Even then most of these are stocks like ITC, Polycab, VBL. These are not current active investments and have their place in the portfolio, either as a balance against volatility or as remnants of past Multibagger investments .These taken together with pginvit and Piccadilly agro constitute one third of portfolio .So, my active portfolio needs to generate better returns to keep up the outperformance . Last year Wockhardt, Ceinsys, SHAILY(Thanks to @phreakv6 mostly), Amara Raja , PGEL etc did a lot along with those quick 50% plus trades on POCL,Garware,Shilchar,Hind rect,Sharda etc. Let’s see how it goes in 2025…
More: Edited to fix typos.
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Dear Ghanshyam Das Ji and others, Greetings!
The thread title reminded me of my own late start —2.5 yr, 1.8X kinda gain, dividends included (and maybe a sprinkle of luck). As i am hooked to alpha returns, mostly dabbling in small and micro-caps.
From What I’ve noticed (just my dartboard observations)::
- 2023: Transformers, power, and tech seemed to have their moment. Names like Taril, Newgen, IZMO, Servotech, and HBL popped up as my accidental stars.
- 2024: The same sectors showed promise, with industrials sneaking in (Ceinsys, TT, Shaily, etc.).
- Oct 2024 onwards: I observed Micro-caps have been sprinting ahead of small/mid-caps. Feels like they’ve had their chai and are now running on turbo mode.not sure if its one off kinda divergence or if such divergence is going forward.
Recently, I found EMS/RAC names (PGEL, KRN, VOEPL) doing a decent sprint too. do you think 2025 might stick to the old favorites—transformers, power, tech, and industrials—with EMS possibly adding some spice ?
Since I’m no “numbers guy,” I mostly guess (ahem, analyze) demand-side trends and try to spot growth stories. Managing a sub-crore portfolio feels like herding cats, but squeezing out 0.5X returns seems doable. Wht would you opine to study growth ?
Whn we manage smaller pf shy of crore it sounds like its possible to gather 0.5X kinda returns per annum and it brings me to my burning questions:
- Does the 0.5X magic still happen when one is managing crores PF, or do the returns get shy at scale?
- How many names do you run in your PF? I run with 30+ names and always end up like a waiter juggling too many trays—dropping sell opportunities left and right.
- What are names worth studying which can run alpha race in 2025? Asking for my “research.”
Disclosure:
- The names I mentioned are NO recommendations—they’re just part of my experiments.
- Me a dart-throwing monkey, Me no SEBI-registered analyst.
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Here are the answers …
1.Does the 0.5X magic still happen when one is managing crores PF, or do the returns get shy at scale?
Somehow you are assuming I have a multi crore portfolio.I do not …and it’s very well shy of a crore . I am trying to multiply a fixed amount into a crore …and I am still far away but it’s going faster than expected as the target CAGR was 26% .But even at this small scale , for me it’s getting increasingly difficult to put in the same 2% into an idea . But this sense of extra caution is diminishing with time in market .In my 5 years …except in 2022 , the returns were 50% plus but 2022 was very bad …negative 10% .So over a longer timeframe , 50% is probably a bit too much to expect.
2.How many names do you run in your PF?
40 + most of the time . In 20-22 it was between 20 to 30 but with larger amount of money to deploy and my inability to put large amount in a single stock , the number increased . However, all of them does not need too much watching . I do not put too much effort into understanding in detail about large caps or mid caps …this is done well by many analysts and media . These are mostly swing trades …I just try to buy at drawdowns and trade out at peaks unless it seems better to hold on for some fundamental reason.
- What are names worth studying which can run alpha race in 2025?
I am just hoping Wockhardt,Ceinsys,Piccadily and Shaily will do well . Finding alpha is not easy and till now I have had only 4 but failed to hold on in two of them …HBL power and Garware …I got doublers instead of multipliers . Only Piccadilly(25x and counting) and borosil renewables(8x) gave grand results. I have a section of 10 stocks where I hope to get good returns in a couple …but damned if I know which two ! Problem is one needs to catch them young when future glory is invisible …
Ceinsys, Wockhardt both are from this set of 10 and have tripled … but rest is yet to do much .I think Valiant communication and axiscades are good companies to study along with zaggle .Asian Energy services and Eimco elecon also can have better future in next couple of years .
I am not a methodical stock picker and mostly ride ideas from this valuepicker community which resonates with my way of thinking . Except Piccadilly agro and VBL(7x) ,I have not found any other stock on my own till date that has generated alpha for me .
Disc: invested in named stocks mostly from lower levels .
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Uff …what a start to the new year ! Only god knows what lies ahead but since this thread is for my future reading pleasure ,I have to note down stuff…
On first two days it went up to ATH and has come down about 7% from that .This time around smallcaps seem to be more affected hence this situation .I am by no means sure how long this will go on and how low it will go but when these index levels came about in October/ November , my portfolio was about 11% lower than present…so the rebalancing worked.I was at it again this week…
Sold
====
Samhi Hotels @ minor loss because lower conviction and ITC hotels will be in portfolio soon.One hotel stock is enough for me.
Vadilal @minor loss . On second thoughts…no immediate trigger and no idea when the family feud thing cease to be an overhang .
RaymondLSL@ 12% loss. Not finding bottom and not sure how long markets will decide on a valid price . Better things available in market.
Shaktipumps@53% gains . It was a momentum pick and a case of getting a bite of a missed feast as I had bought it on kusum story back in 2022 but sold off in panic .Sold because I was afraid of losing the gains as it had risen steeply.Already seems like a mistake.
Nuvama@ par …no gain or loss this time .Decided to switch to DAM .
Reduced
======
Eimco Elecon (nearly doubled and then halved…curious and I got premonitions about a bad results from recent notifications.
Allcargo (running out of patience…been holding for almost 2.5 years and negative returns)
Bought
=======
CARTRADE
TD Power
Kilburn
TARIL
DAM capital
Syrma SGS
Hariom Pipes
Jash
100% invested now and nothing much to do anymore apart from buying prayer beeds .
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I have a question on TD Power. The promoter holding reduced from 58.43% to 34.27% in September 2023. Is that something to be concerned about?
I liked this one. But isnt 100% invested a risk at this juncture.
Can ideal scenario be an weekly sip into mentioned stocks.
@tarunks9 Not much . It’s more than a year since the event and in the meantime sales, profit, eps all have grown very well along with price . At that time also market took it well because well known funds bought from the promoters . I have seen promoters sell to funds and profit etc going flat in case of Shivalik bimetal ,so your question is justified, but in this case that has not happened so it’s a green flag for me.
@hardik_shah1 Of course ! But any direct investment is a risk . This portfolio started as 10% of my net worth and now is at about 30% . There are mutual funds like PPFAS and FD etc to hold the fort for me .Anyway, I have a very diversified portfolio and the recent buys are either strong in RSI or have really strong sectoral tailwinds and good results to boot .Anyway, the last round of picks done during oct November drawdown looks like this even after today . Not in screenshot is Hind rect and Shakti pumps which were both bought and sold in last 80 days with 50% returns.Hence the overconfidence 
SIP is just not for me .I do lump sum during drawdowns even when putting money in mutual funds .
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Please share your thesis for TD Power including fundamental trigger going forward. Though I have read about the various usage of its products , I am unable to conclude anything on FY26 revenue & EBIDTA margin.
thanks
Neither can I . But , the management guidance says that next two quarters should show about 680 to 700 crores of revenue with near 20% margin .If that happens, results should look good and market may rerate it. For past 3 years ,profit has increased at 44% or so . Company is debt free, has good prospects in gas turbines, gas powered generators and waste to energy generators .The price rise has been steady and does not look exorbitant .For me that’s enough …as I do not usually get too deep into the numbers and assumption of numbers .
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ooks like we are back into a bear market now just like in 2022 . Sold off holdings where I am fairly sure that this quarter and the next is not going to be good enough for this kind of market sentiment.Hence out went in last few days……
Eimco elecon(1 year almost no profit …another IEX kind of stock for me )
Polyplex (Results are likely to be flat at best …if market stays this way will get it lower later)
RaymondLSL (may take long time to get value recognition)
POCL (Just seemed risky at this juncture and had less conviction)
SGMART(Was a long hope anyway …not the time to hold it)
Technoelectric(HIgh valuation plus delayed news on expected stuff)
CARTRADe(Good but had a big run up…FOMO punished )
Syrma (Some stocks are always unlucky for me )
All the above except first two resulted in about 15- 20% haircut each.
Sold of PGInvit too as the basic thesis of its increasing value during market corrections is not really holding up as its trading below book value .Better have the cash .
Currently adding small quantities to Ceinsys,zaggle etc. where eps visibility is clearer .
Went back into Apollo Microsystems and Sarla Performance fibers as I expect them to do well in near term.
Time to read books and focus on other things in general .
PS: Sold Allcargo too …3 years and no profit .So much for value buy and conviction .
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what’s your thesis on sarla, can you share
- Capacity expanded and waiting utilization rampup .Nylon 6 has good demand and future prospects so utilization will increase profits without farther capex.
- Promototer buying consistently for past 2 years or more
- Good results for past few quarters .
However, these were the reasons along with the hope of tailwind in the textile sector but now the Trump tariffs have made some changes in picture .However, I do not think they have too much exposure to US markets .Thry have sold off the US unit which was inoperative for long years .
It is not a big position for me and not a very high conviction stock either because its from a sector that rarely ever gets any sustained attention from investors.In this kind of negative market, its a longshot at best .
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The single most destructive quarter of my investment journey is over and thankfully the portfolio has recovered somewhat in past 15 days.At its lowest point the portfolio was down by 25% from the top .While the ATH and the lowpoint ,did not last more than day or two ,with 75% small and microcaps , the fear of sinking completely was genuine . Even Mr. Kacholia was down 32% ..so not my fault that mine went down by that much .
With every drawdown , I found out holes in my investment thesis of various companies and this time around I think ,apart from TLH purposes, I genuinely booked losses of more than 40% in 3 stocks ..Macpower,Dam and Kernex .
Macpower , because I realized that it was borrowed conviction and while the company is good, the prices may take years to get back to my buying price .
Dam , This was panic sell . It went down and down and I sold right near the bottom assuming bad times for Wealth management and IPO business and ignored the good results. Also hefty loss meant hefty tax saving on selling out for now .
Kernex, to my mind the management is casual to the extreme . They do not care about share prices and forget to mention that the selling director is not a director anymore or that todays notification of selling 1.46 lac shares is just a revision 3 day old notification. Doing this when the stock is making LC day after day shows tremendous callousness. I had ignored the inarticulate management on TV assuming that it did not signify incompetence but these farther activities have certainly convinced me otherwise .While 4rs. EPS may make the stock look cheap after Q4, I think I should look elsewhere.
There were also quite a few 20% plus losses booked and a few early sells were bought back lower like TechnoElectric, Syrma, Cartrade etc.
I have not sold and in some cases added to high conviction bets like Bluejet,Jindrill,Ceinsys,ACE and valiant communication ,Zaggle, Kilburn etc.
The FY25 completed with about 25% gain after this carnage shows how well the portfolio did in first 9 months.
Expecting sideways markets for next few months …will use 10% portfolio to trade .
Learnings: Need to learn to sell and book profit and stay in cash when everything is going too well for too long .
13 Likes
Good to see your detailed post, Warren has said rightly, its only when tide turns u see who is swimming naked. Lot of accidents have happened in this fall too sharp and too quick, by end of Feb all prices came to sanity level.
I was sitting at mere 4% PF loss on 3rd Jan. By March 2nd week losses extended to 28%, recovered 10% in last two weeks. Losses could have been more if I had not sold Kalyan Jewel at 710 levels which was my largest PF holding and AGI green around 1040 levels:joy:
. CEInsystech and Genesys both were sold near peak. Wockhardt is one stock which gained 100% in last year.
Force is another excellent bet which gained excellent. AB Capital is on the way to recover.
Laggards ABFRL, Arvind Fashion, Samhi Hotels. Thomas Cook.
I am feeling the heat of MTF trades now, it went really well till last 4 years however this is process, in a process to reduce MTF exposure to 15% maximum.
PVR INOX, SyrmaSGS, Redtape, Campus new entries.
Accidents SENCO gold lost 50%. Arvind Fashion lost 40%, Samhi Hotel lost 20%. ABFRL lost 30%.
MTF lossed booked 5% of portfolio 
Exits Kalyan, Genesys, Ceinsys, AGI green
10 lks saved on short term capital gains by tax loss harvesting for current year. I know this is just postponing tax liability.
Current year will be very volatile however seeing how Elon Musk is shrinking balance sheet of US by 7 B USD per day, he has a target to reduce spending by 1 T USD in next 130 days, this will create a major caos in US and major global markets. US dollar will fall and DOW and NASDAQ both will go down in tandem, not surprising to me seeing FII flows back to India, India is best among worst options as of now due to large underperformance in comparison to other markets in last 6 months. We may witness USD INR below 80, Strong US FDI/FII flows going forward.
Hope for the best and 
.
Need to be careful for 2025, stay with earnings and shun the narratives, all narratives based stocks have been massacred in this brutal fall
12 Likes
@Cshar its quite a surprise to know that your PF took such a hit as I recall you sold and went mostly to cash early enough . I wish now that I had more heed to your advice ..but maybe next time I will have more sense…
Any stock that had went up more fell more than others that did not go up in past year…no valid reasons needed. Stocks like Taril, Apar ,TechnoElectric got butchered for almost no fault of their own. Only learning from that is beaware of stocks with low float in this kind of situation and book early .
Its my good luck that I had nearly 50 stocks and many of them surprisingly held strong …Axiscades, Force,SRF , wockhardt ,Shaily etc . Most of the companies I held fairly good results and I held on .I sold some where the results are going to take few more quarters to appear …in a bearish market, very few people pay for future .Only company which did horribly bad but I have held on is Valiant communication ..because I still have conviction and I managed to avoid the damage by selling immediately before the stock fell post result and buying back low.Same happened with WPIL .
I have held on to ceinsys ,wockhardt etc as I think they will show results and they did well enough in Q3 . I think that the themes of Power ,defence, ems etc will do well if India does well in next 3 years and most stocks have lost the froth entirely and is very investment worthy .
New picks are picked based on technical strength or undervaluation plus strong support (indigo paints,cms infosystems, aegis logistics,cyient DLM ,Apar etc.)
and only if good things are just around the corner .Also , I moved away from very US dependent stocks like Vaibhav Global as Trump seems hellbent on getting US into a bad phase .
I sold off VBL(a solid 5 bagger) at around current price .All nearby small shops have stocked Campa and pepsi/ sting etc is very rare to see . Will try to get back in if the PE falls or company still outperforms in Q4.
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Dear Cshar, eager to know what factors triggered you to exit from Ceinsys and Genesis as the future of this sector seems very bright
Regards.
Hi Shakti
My entry in Genesys was around 650, exited around 1030 and CEinsystech buy around 1100, exited around 1900, sold off both as it looked to me overvalued at those levels. Reason for sell was both were more than 10X in last 3 years, nothing wrong on fundamentals. ROI based on holding period was high, will reconsider post results.
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For past 7 days or so , it has been total chaos and for the first time in my 5 years in markets, I became too aware of macros and decided to go 25% in cash.Sold Shaily, Onesourse Zaggle, BLS ,WPIL etc . ,which I would not have sold otherwise ,believing that Trump is hellbent on a recession and dedollarization and what not . Now, all of a sudden by a single post he has turned the tables.It seems he was after upper hand in negotiations and China hunting as I had supposed initially .
I had also intentionally sold US dependent businesses like Garware hi tech and Vaibhav Global .
Only good thing is that I did not sell Bluejet,Laurus ,Wockhardt ( Pharma tariff fear) and Jindrill(oil prices tanking fear) .I also added defense and domestic heavy businesses(GRSE,BEL,HBL,Aegis,CMS,VADILAL,Indigo paints,Genesys) as those seemed somewhat insulated from tariff and US growth issues.
For now it seems that Trump is not going for recession and the threat of global downturn is also reduced with this accomodative stance .If it stays this way in general, India would have an actual advantage in US trades.
I will try to get back in some of the sold positions if they do not run up too much too soon above my selling price . But probably I have to look for new stocks to invest in unless Trump does another U turn .
Lesson learnt : Nothing . It was too turbulent and scary to stay all in. Many experienced hands also suggested the same approach in many forums. I should probably do the same again in future if this kind of uncertainty appears.
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Why don’t you put an amo for all your stocks at upper circuit
Most of them will run for a few days
Nifty might even do an all time high by July
Then usually summer weakness will bring it down and from there it might not recover as nothing has really changed
The economy is struggling
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