Finally I have decided to stop short term swing/momentum trading for now . The recent smallcap crash on the rumour of Covid beat me to submission . For next few months ,not planning to buy shares for technical or reversal trade as I find the market very unstable .
However, with that decision came the pruning of such shares and reinvestment of the resultant cash to stocks I have more conviction in or already hold.
So I increased allocations in Mirza,Aegis,Sirca,Sarla,Ultramarine,Piccadilly,South Indian Bank,Optiemus and Satia.
Sold off BEL( PSU … had bought high),Specialty resturant(Low conviction somehow),Novartis(The premise remains but not sure how much time markets will take to recognise it) etc.
In present state of market sentiment good stocks with good results are not moving up and so any further churn is useless because whatever I pick will get sold out of frustration before price can catch up with performance .
Portfolio value is hovering near its Nov 21 levels …hence almost no returns for a year . However,I am still on track for 26% CAGR as portfolio had doubled between Oct20 to Nov21 .
Considering stocks(IEX,Laurus,IDA,Globus etc) with hefty allocations has reduced by 40-50% , newer picks have done well (Allcargo,Shivalik,Sirca,Aegis etc.) to keep the boat floating .
For sure,its no walk in the park to generate good returns from direct investing (Did seem so in 21). I hope to free up some time and mindspace for next few months as well so that this particular side gig does not become too burdensome.8
I have not posted here for about 4 months now . I have not been able to stay away … 
Sold below stocks …
Chemplast(Too much pain to bear and mere recovery wont make my day)
IEX( Lost conviction bcoz of its lack of growth due to hot weather! Also having not sold it at 300, It was going to be mental thorn if held any longer)
Lux(Had underestimated effects of CG perceptions and at 45% down ,its not going to make me happy anytime soon)
MsumiWiring ( was not my own conviction and the drop exposed the delusion)
Panama petro(Bought based on too little research and hence no conviction when 20% down)
Satia(Market perception of the industry provides very little comfort for future rerating as good results not having any effect)
Cineline ( better opportunities visible with less risk)
Added…
Angelone @1150 ( Good growing brokerage house with good chance of rerating in a better market as PE is low now )
Indigopaints@1030(Probably too undervalued …good chance of rerating and anyway has many expansions coming onstream in next 24 months.)
Persistent@4482(Bit risky but if meets guidance it can be the outperformer from IT pack)
Vaibhav Global@296 ( Long term bet bought with margin of safety)
HBL@97.6( Can have a very good couple of years)
SIS@370 ( MoS , turning of tide)
Added to
Allcargo,Mirza and Sirca.
Portfolio has stayed at about same level mainly thanks to VBL,polycab and ITC . March end levels are very fractionally lower than Dec end levels and thats not too bad considering what happened to small and midcaps in those three months .
The selling of lux,IEX etc. were most probably at the worst time because they are very likely to turn around now. I wish I had bought them now rather than selling but thats the penalty for buying at the wrong time when one does not have the patience to sit through long years .
You should invest in large caps with a good track record instead of the small companies.
I do have infy,ITC,VBL etc …but I would rather invest in mutual funds than solely in individual largecaps . The returns are unlikely to justify the effort put in selecting the stocks.
Sir are you still holding Tiger logistics? what is your view on its fundamentals?
Portfolio has been mostly on autopilot till June end but recently I let go of …
Infy at 16% loss … (nearly 2 years and end of my patience) .
Persistent at minor profit(Nothing bad in it but is the PE already too high ?)
HBL ( Got stopped out and could not get back in becoz of the balasore incident)
ITC,polycab,VBL and Sivalik is doing well,Piccadilly is starting to show its colours ,Angel and Indigo too have done well .I have added some new atocks but refraining from mentioning here as I will surely hop out of some and have to update here next quarter.
Its been nearly 3 years and my portfolio value is at 2.3X (X being the invested amount) pre- tax .So I am on track and hoping for a longish bull run.
Would you mind sharing the thesis around the above name [I assume it’s Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd ]?
Indeed its Piccadilly agro . Please check the recent posts on its thread in VP ,I had written there about its potential and plans with all the links I could find then. In short,they have a couple of highly appreciated(internationaly) premium whiskeys in Indi-Trini and Kamet and expanding capacities big time .They have a revamped and excellent website and also starting on a sort of whiskey tourism of their plant .
In Q4, the expanded revenue from the liquor section showed that things are moving.I also spotted a bottle of Indi in nearby spencers in Kolkata outskirts at Rs. 3940 . I just want to sit tight and see how it goes since I have conviction about the promoters business acumen and hope of getting a multibagger .
For a value investor, Patience is hinged to which fundamental ratio or value?
For a true value investor no single ratio would be enough to make a decision of buy or sell . He would need to judge the business itself and would know its ins and outs like the back of his hand .Atleast thats my idea of a value investor .
However, I am not a value investor as I do not have the skills nor the temperament . My patience runs out when it runs out …it might have nothing to do with the business fundamentals and all to do with stock price appreciation.
That’s reasonable way of expressing personal limitations of investment decisions
Posting here after a substantial gap of about 5 months . The portfolio is up 60% from the levels it was on 31st December,22 . Considering I have always had 40% plus largecap and midcaps in the portfolio, the returns are good enough for me. Stocks like Polycab,VBL,Angelone,HBL,CDSL,Mirza(RedTape) and the best one of the lot - Piccadilly Agro , helped a lot while most of the long term bets like Allcargo,Aegis,Vaibhav Global,Indigo paints,Sirca etc. has not done that well.
After nearly 4 years in the market, my current opinion is…
-
It does not pay to be overcautious in Bull Market while picking stocks if one is not into very concentrated investing .My portfolio has 35 plus stocks most of the time and I manage my risks by keeping 50% large- midcaps and by mentally categorizing stocks into 3 categories …
A. Longterm anchors … ITC,Nestle,VBL,polycab etc.
B. Midterm momentum/swing/ seasonal trades … Angelone,CDSL,Indigo paints,PTC,IRCTC etc.
C. Indefinte investments of various flavours like Value( Amara Raja,Allcargo etc.), Structural tailwinds(HBL,Sona BLW etc.) , and fundamental bets like Rategain,piccadilly,danlaw,ems,MSTC etc. -
Its important not to overanalyze and over criticize incase of micro and smallcap investment since one is not supposed to bet too heavily in a single stock unless extremely experienced. Diversification is much more important than going into a witchhunt for CG issues and balance sheet trickeries .
-
Every process described by everyone is right one for themselves and for their likeminded bethren . Its necessary to find out which one works for me . As of now I find Hitesh ji’s posts most helpful in this forum . I am not into reading books of every investing style and a simple diet of Peter Lynch and Ivaylo Ivanov is enough for my soul .
-
Its better to make money by following ones own nose than to appear theoretically right and erudite.
-
Most important is that one needs to be optimistic about ones own bets and not get swayed by the negativity of the CG/valuation/MoS crusaders in various forums .Its totally unnecessary to continually look for holes in your thesis once one has taken the dive after checking to ones satisfaction . No stock ever satisfies everyone.
Hi Ghonarbochon…wish you a very happy new year…can you please share names of your newly added stocks with some thesis if possible…
Happy New Year to you too …
Most of the recent buys are in the previous post …
Amara Raja,HLE glasscoat , Sona Comstar are good companies trading at lower valuations than they usually did .Good businesses with upcoming revenue boost due to capex or aquistions soon.
MSTC … read the article by fundoo professor . The first auction thingy is reason enough .
Other than those bought …
Wockhardt … read its threads in VP . Seemed good times are ahead.1% of portfolio …so not much to lose anyway .Thinking of increasing but it has run up a bit since I bought .
Danlaw Tech … Makes TCU’s .Verified creds in linkedin and by articles in tata elxsi site . Good results in past 4 quarters .Again. 1.2% only.
Valiant Communication … very small company but with good hi tech product for network security and grid security . Already sales to US and european gov organizations and is the only approved vendor for Power grid security in India. 1% allocation.
These three are risky but hoping for high rewards if it works out .
Almost all are trading higher than where I bought except HLE .I am not a scuttlebutt guy so there might be bad things I missed or ignored about these .Please do not curse me later if you buy any of these and lose money .
Posting today as this is the day when I have finally sold off intellect design arena. When I bought it in 2020 end at around 600,I was very convinced that it is going to be a multibagger for me and I would hold on to it forever.It was my highest conviction bet back then apart from globus spirits ,then it even went up to 1050 and then dropped back to 600 .I started adding again and it became my largest holding by invested amount in 2023 beginning. At one point it even to below 400 and . I still held on with 40% loss. Overall after holding it for 3.5 years,I booked out with 55% profit And zero satisfaction.
It is going to be very nice not to worry about their endless products that solves all banking issues but adds nothing to the bottom line and endless ESOPs.
Such a relief!
In past one month ,I have also trimmed 3/7 th of VBL and booked profits . That was also very satisfactory since I have taken out 2.4X and remaining 3X shares are now effectively free but still constitutes 7.5% of portfolio.
It joins the ranks of Piccadily, Polycab, HBL,Shivalik and redtape . As I see it , these are much easier to hold on to for long term since there is no chance of losing money on these investments anymore .
i am really bullish on Wockhardt like you…so many interesting drugs and the antibiotics in pipeline are so exciting as the efficacy of antibiotics dwindle in the world…I bought at 220 so obviously one well but no desire to sell.
I think one needs to have money in smallcaps…especially in this era…I just find largecaps (like Titan,HUL etc) so overvalued.even many midcaps…and even if they arent there is little chance because FIIs and fund houses buy them crazily…
I like buying comanies when they are out of favour and have bought Spicejet and Vascon at much lower prices…And I just like to hang on…
Congrats on picking wockhardt so early. I don’t have so much margin of safety but I have it cheaper than the biggies who got in at the QIP.
I also think that if one is averse to invest in smallcaps because of the risks then one should not even do equity investing directly …MF is enough .I do not see much point in investing in largecaps unless one invests only in bear markets and does very concentrated investing .
I do not usually look at caps as a criteria but I try to keep some biggies in portfolio to reduce the pain of the bad days but rest 70% is small or microcaps .Nothing really beats the effect of a 15-20 bagger in the portfolio .So nowadays I am consciously trying to keep 5 or 6 hopefuls even if they are risky .
yes mfs are much the best for the large and bigger midcaps…I think fund managers underatand these shares better than us.
I think 2024 even after election results markets will be largely in a band. I dont think we are going to break the highs personally…There are such high valuations particularly in the utility PSU space ,autos etc and also huge uncertainties with IT etc because of the threat of AI and cut back on spending from usa.
Maybe there will be an opportunity in metals and mining …and also in pharmaceuticals as a defensive thing but pharma in india has such high valuations as well.
as you rightly say the opportunity is in smallcaps because some of these are still going to do 5x 10x over time…but one has to be super selecctive.
i still believe India is the most opportunistic market in the world but over a long period
Since my last general portfolio update here at the end of 2023, the portfolio is up by about 33% in past 6 months. Since the portfolio has grown at about 60% CAGR. for 2 years. I have taken the decision to became a little defensive and accordingly increased the percentage of low beta investments like large caps ( Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, cg power - Asian paints etc.), power grid invit etc.
Portfolio churn has increased of late and only 15 stocks out of 40 has been with me for longer than 6 months . However, those 15 stocks are worth more than 50% of the portfolio .
Because of the volatility of late , I had decided to book when profit was there to be taken and triggers were not in near future.
As a result , at present I don’t have a few stocks(Praj, Garware Hi tech films etc.) that I consider good for long term but I intend to buy those back later .
I have let go of almost all so called long term bets like AEGIS( sad sad mistake), SIRCA, HBL ,Shivalik ,Indigo paints , AngelOne , INTELLECT etc. While Aegis has tripled once I sold it after running in circles for 2 years , the rest have not gone anywhere but backwards mostly.
I have added CMSINFO(avg 400), SHARDA MOTORS(avg 1578),BKT(avg 3015 ), NATCO(avg 1202)BOMBAYDYEING(175) , ANURAS(772) etc. in past 2 months along with riskier and smaller bets like WPIL(3680), EIMCOElecon(1575), PGEL(2520), WALCHANDNAGAR(220), SHILCHAR(4500) and
THOMASSCOTT(260) etc along with ones I have held for a few months now like Danlaw and Valiant communication.
Once one has got a 20 bagger like Piccadily , it’s impossible to resist the urge to find another like it . It’s also true that one can’t know beforehand . So pick 5 and hope one makes it worth it .
One thing I am struggling with is allocating larger amount to a single stock in proportion to rising portfolio value . Hope I get better at it soon .
Good to see your journey, 60% CAGR is excellent. As you said in last position sizing does matter, i give you an example, i entered Kalyan Jeweller last year with 10% allocation, stock has gone 500% in last one year, this forms 25% of my portfolio right now, contributed major gains to my PF, did 10% dilution of total bet in kalyan, no intention to dilute further as my decision was wrong to dilute:joy:
.
My 50% portfolio is in two bets rightnow Kalyan and ABFRL, 75% in 4 bets Force and ABCAP with 25% in 8 stocks, total 12. Kalyan 5X, Force motors 8X, contributed major gains for last year.
All consumptions apart from Sanghvi mover and wockhardt.