Investing journey of an imperfect investor

Investment Learning
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Using this thread to write my thoughts on my investing journey through the years. Look forward to seeking feedback on my thoughts, investments picks, thesis and anti thesis.

I consider myself an amateur practitioner in the markets and have seriously started taking investing as a journey to learn as much as I can.

My portfolio in current state consists of concentrated bets and I look towards churning that only in case of my thesis failing, capital needs for some other idea in case my allocation becomes really heavy in some stock.

For selecting a company, the most important parameters for me are its TAM, the operational skills of its management, a little bit of stage analysis and utmost important the management integrity.

Of the time I’ve spent on valuepickr, I’ve been deeply inspired by the learning imparted by @phreakv6 and @hitesh2710. I know investing is a lonely journey so it’s always good to have a guiding light in case you don’t want to get lost.

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My small portfolio as of today with allocation and thesis :slight_smile:

Macpower CNC- Manufacturing is the buzz word and CNC machines are needed. Macpower has been the heaviest bet in my portfolio. In hindsight valuations can seem to be very rich but here I’m okay to add as much as I can. I’m willing to go wrong here. My thesis is- Excellent Promotor, Operational Excellence, No debt, Prudent Capital allocator. It’s silly to be in love with a company and I might look like a fool if this doesn’t deliver what I’m anticipating. But when the promotor even at industry best margins and asset turns talks about excelling further with growth and he has clarity when he gives a reason, it’s worth taking a shot. 35% allocation in Portfolio

Shilchar Technologies- Transformers transformers all around and a lot of companies to pick. I personally feel that this one is taking a pause before going ballistic again. The management has done a capex with internal accruals and if one does the maths, even if it’s a transformers company, their margins are to be envied. **Personally don’t like their limited interactions with the investors **. But my average investment price gives me a cushion to take a pause and reflect if things go awry. 20% allocation in portfolio

Jash Engineering- Water is the new Gold and all likely it’s going to remain so. I feel here the TAM for the company is huge as alluded in their concalls. They are at the cusp of what they can deliver. Exports form a major chunk and they have established themselves in key geographies. They don’t need to go all over the world and yes, India is still not even in the frame as far as the potential is concerned. There might be a lot of business coming from here. The management has recently announced a split as well. Maybe they’d like more people to be a part of this journey :smiley: 10% allocation in Portfolio

Windlas Biotech- Now Pharma is not my cup of tea but you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand a a management. This is one instance wherein I’m separately banking on their three different business verticals. I have my bet on the promotors as well. They have groomed their CFO to become the CEO. Not many have the courage and heart to do in small companies. I feel with the Pharma cycle they’ll do well. And yes being a small company they did a buy back too. Talk about capital allocation :slight_smile: **10% of portfolio **

Ethos- We will grow, our aspirations will grow, our hectic lifestyles will push us to get luxuries to keep going. When it comes to watches who better than Ethos. Retail businesses are expensive but what sets ethos apart is that to crack this business there are many many hidden barriers to entry. Trust, assortment, service and experience. They are top notch. 10% of portfolio

HBL power- There’s been enough written about this by the stalwarts. Safety is going to be a big push. I think I’ve been one of the late entrants but nevertheless technically as well I feel it’s poised for a long journey ahead. 5% of portfolio

Techno electric- Have trimmed this down a bit as I feel it’s run up quite a bit though I have full faith in the management commentary as well as how data centre business will shape up for them.**5% of portfolio **

Frontier springs- Riding this as a railway theme small cap company. Plus their capex and management guidance of 500 Cr gross revenue means that a sharp run up might be ahead. **3% of portfolio **

Have a little bit here and there in a few watchlist stocks. Sometimes I just buy a token quantity to test if I’ve been able to technically gauge how stocks are moving.

My long term goal is to use techno funda and I feel that in techno I still need to learn a lot of funda :slight_smile:

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Aug and Sep Reads

As the roaring bull markets keep on soaring, an investor like me ought to work within my circle of competence.
It’s always good to go back and re read some literature and some fresh literature. The learning should never stop and markets can be a brutal teacher if one is complacent.
To replenish my repertoire and to wipe off the dust of a lot many books which have been neglected by me, I’ve made a promise that I’d go through and try and complete the below books.I’d also try and pen down what learnings or key take aways for my investing I’ve been able to take from them.

How to make money in stocks
Arriving today
Master class with super investors
Chip wars
The little book of valuation
Capital Returns

It’s a tough task to be not hooked onto the markets and go about a disciplined process for long term and with no new capital to deploy there’s nothing much for me to observe and take action upon. My portfolio would likely get a run for atleast a quarter. In foresight it’s better that I be prepared to take on any turbulences that might occur :stuck_out_tongue:

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Not much activity in the portfolio or adding any new stocks. I’ve deliberated upon the construct and weightage. Have taken a few calls basis cash requirement as well as market condition.

Have completely exit Techno electric- There’s nothing wrong with the company but I just feel that I’d get an opportunity to add this again provided valuations become too attractive. Otherwise also it has given me decent returns and I was anyways not looking to pyramid up and had instead been pruning the position.

Added some Ethos- I feel that promotor selling is no longer a surprise and stock has been slowly and steadily once again approaching its high. Q2 results and Q3 results might pull this up further. Also the MoS for me is huge.

Some other stocks in family account invested- I’m taking a conscious call not to add any new names as of now in my portfolio. Some of the stocks in family portfolio that have turned out well are All e tech and Ceinsys.

All e tech excited me as a company when it had a market cap of 500 Cr and around 150 Cr cash equivalent on balance sheet. Plus a very solid promotor and high margins business. It was a no brainer at those levels and hence invested.

Ceinsys was trading at a PE of less than 20 with a growing order book and prospects of Allygrow business an added bonus. The company recently did its first concall as well and the stock has rallied quite a bit in the past two months.

Both the above businesses are in family account and were added at much lower levels. I still feel there’s lot of run up left and I’m particularly bullish on the promotor of All e tech.

P.S. I might prune a little in Macpower basis how the market progresses.I’m still very bullish but perhaps 35% allocation might get on my nerves if it trends the way it has been over past few weeks.

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Added a little bit of Shilchar and Ethos with some cash freed up from Techno electric. Had been toying with the idea of trimming some Macpower but then couldn’t find a single reason except stock movement to justify the action.

Reading Capital Returns and Masterclass with Super Investors has been a refreshing change. Investing is such a funny domain that the same thing read and then reread can have a different implication in what you construe.

The current run of the markets when stocks are running and anti thesis is not having any impact can lead to a delirium for any investor. There are a lot of new ideas popping up but everything seems to have had a stellar run.

Would love to exchange notes on the experience of others as to how they are navigating such a bull run when almost everything seems to work and almost nothing seems to fail :slight_smile:

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Have completely exit Technoelectric and Frontier Springs with some reduction in Jash as part of profit booking wrt small caps. I’m still heavily invested in Macpower, Shilchar, Ethos, Jash and Windlas but am not adding onto any new positions or new stocks and waiting for market direction wrt small caps.

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My decision to not add something new which I took over a month back was a difficult one.

Infact I had been toying more towards the idea of booking some more profits and waiting for some correction to add which eventually happened this month.

There’s nothing more to add since my last post except the fact that I’ve added some Macpower and Windlas post the last post and have again taken Jash Engineering back to 10%.

In hindsight I shouldn’t have sold Jash but then was excited by the idea that due to stock split there might be some booking and it actually fell from 2600 odd levels to close to 2050 levels.

Have completely sold HBL Power to raise some cash, since I wasn’t planning to add into that right now.

As of now on allocation basis the portfolio has only 5 stocks with Macpower and Shilchar-65% and Windlas, Jash and Ethos contributing 35%.