Introducing phreakonomics.in - Finance tools

@initin - The first table seems to be for Crude. We don’t export any crude which is why its all zero. I don’t recommend using the Macro screen when viewing individual commodities. Please use the Micro screen where there are separate Export and Import tabs. I use this for some special cases only. Paper data looks fine for me in this link

https://phreakonomics.in/export-import/macro?startDate=2000-04-01&endDate=2018-11-01&currency=inr&commodity=146&country=&country[]=0&consolidation=quarter

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I am not sure why they show up as zero for you. I would still recommend using the Micro screens.

For eg. These are Export and Import links for Paper

https://phreakonomics.in/export-import/micro?type=exports&country[0]=0&commodity=146&startDate=2000-04-01&endDate=2018-11-01&currency=inr&consolidation=quarter

https://phreakonomics.in/export-import/micro?type=imports&country[0]=0&commodity=146&startDate=2000-04-01&endDate=2018-11-01&currency=inr&consolidation=quarter

Please check this link

I’m getting the following error

I have fixed this. I was fiddling with something and it looks to have broken things. Should be fine now. Thanks for reporting!

Hi all,
I have one more thing ready. This is something that I think could be very useful for everyone.

The Export/Import data at present only has a higher level grouping. While it has been quite useful in tracking trends for things like Basmati Rice and Shrimps to some extent, there has been issues for some commodities that are made up of a lot of individual commodities with varying realisations, say organic chemicals or bulk drugs.

The new feature follows the same format as the “Micro” screen you are probably used to, by now but you can view Individual commodity exports.

You can choose Individual Commodity from the dropdown at the top. You can search by name or HS Code.

For eg. this is how the screen looks for exports of T-Shirts of Cotton,

One glance can tell you the trend is flat

With no pricing power

The numbers substantiate what’s visualised.

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You can look up Graphite Electrodes and see the strong trend.

Exports have grown a lot in value while volume have stayed flat

While realisations have gone through the roof.

Substantiated by the numbers

The new feature actually lets you drilldown from the “Micro” Screens to the individual commodities. By clicking on the slice of the pie, you can get to the screens for individual commodities and see their export/import trends, realisations, volumes etc.

Bulk drugs

Organic Chemicals

You can look at Individual commodity imports as well.

You would have seen Petroleum Products imports earlier but would have had no clue what comprised of it. But now you can see this information.

and of course, drilldown to say, LNG imports by tapping that slice of the pie.

Current Trends is also enhanced to see Current Trends of Individual Commodities.

Note:

  • The Individual Commodity module data requires login. The signup is simple. This module might be priced at a nominal cost in the future but for now, it’s free.
  • Individual Commodity data is only available till Sept
  • The usual warnings/disclaimers apply. I am not responsible for any profits/losses you make by using this data and I cannot vouch for its accuracy as the information is represented as is.
  • If you spot any early trends, please be nice and share.
  • Like the earlier data was an indicator of where the sector was going, this is an indicator of where a commodity is going, benefitting from it would require identifying companies with good financials and management, so please use the data with caution. Also, this is just an indicator of topline. The margins will dictate if the company will be profitable or not even in a commodity showing good export growth.
  • With a bit of work, import substitutions can be identified. I intend to do an Exports vs Imports (similar to what’s in the Macro screen) sometime in the future.
  • This is meant to be used on a big screen. Nothing is optimised for mobile screens as I never use them for serious work.
  • Please provide your feedback/suggestions and please let me know if you spot any bugs.
28 Likes

Thanks for the feature, i was looking for the infant stuff that Kitex makes.
I could not find in the cotton fabrics section, saw one in the man made section,any ideas.
Just looked for Basamati rice, looks like the trend is downward, although realization has gone up.

1 Like

@biju_john - I think its better to search in the dropdown directly instead of trying to find commodity by category (which gives a good idea of composition). I think this one which says BABIES GRMNTS AND CLOTHNG ACCSSRS OF COTTON with HS Code 62092000 is the one, going by the realisation and also trend which mirrors Kitex’s topline.

https://phreakonomics.in/export-import/micro-individual?startDate=2000-04-01&endDate=2018-12-01&currency=inr&hscode_commodity=5068&type=exports&consolidation=fy

There is also BABIES GARMENTS ETC OF COTTON with HS Code 61112000 that doing a bit better.

https://phreakonomics.in/export-import/micro-individual?startDate=2000-04-01&endDate=2018-12-01&currency=inr&hscode_commodity=4897&type=exports&consolidation=fy

Yes Basmati Rice volumes are downward but realisation is on an uptrend (but flattening out).

3 Likes

Thanks for this monitoring tool, looks pretty good. Nice. Data shows export is completely down. Any standout sector other than graphite?

There are quite a few. Please look up the current trends for individual products and then sort by Month to get an idea. However there are quite a few on a very small base or don’t have investible companies. Strong trends that I have observed are in several Organic Chemicals, Dyes and some bulk drugs which are investible. For eg. Camphor (Gum Turpentine Oil imports give an indication and I had posted my analysis on Mangalam Organics thread), Vitamin-D, Ibuprofen, Sulphuric Acid, hyper-tensive drugs etc. are some that I came across recently. Not all are secular stories (these are after all, commodities), so researching the fundamentals on what is causing the disruption instead of just a blanket “China pollution” is necessary to develop conviction. Some like Sulphuric acid are due to Sterlite Copper closure and aren’t sustainable for eg. Some like Camphor seem to have fundamental shifts due to lower Crude and so on. There are no shortcuts here, so more work is necessary when a trend is identified.

4 Likes

Thanks Phreak, very informative. Will dive in.

Thanks @phreakv6 this will of great help for all

Hi all,
One more thing added. Now you can look up shareholding trend of a holder as well. For eg. Jhunjhunwala Rakesh Radheshyam, Vijay Kishanlal Kedia and so on. You know the drill.

Choose “Holder” from the dropdown to search by name

and type and choose.

You should see something like this

(That’s Ashish Kacholia’s. In case you were wondering).

You can also click on the company name in a holder’s holdings and view the company’s shareholders and from there, its holder’s holdings and so on.

Notes:

  • Data is not sanitised, so you will find multiple names sometimes for some of the famous investors (RJ has several). I intend to sanitise data as priorities permit.
  • Because data is not sanitised, sometimes holding might become zero for the name you are looking at while it might be present in an alternate name, so exercise caution and check variations
  • The chart is absolutely useless for Holders as its just a mess. I intend to remove it in the future and add something more useful information like additions, reductions, deletions in the recent quarter
  • Coat-tailing without conviction is very dangerous. Please beware. This feature can be very useful for idea generation and follow-up I think and that’s how I intend to use it.
  • Holdings by value (Rs. Cr.) should also come through sometime in the future.
  • There might be bugs, as I just wrapped this up. Please point them out if you come across them.
24 Likes

Nice tool. A suggestion (if possible) to show percentage of net-worth of investor instead of percentage holding of company, when viewing an investors holding. When viewing the company it makes sense to see the percentage of the company owned by the investor. The total in both views should sum to 100% (based on available info if all data is proper) .This may not be exact holding as some data could be out of public domain.
For example, if Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 10% of a small company, his net-worth percentage in the company may be less than 1%.

4 Likes

Self-explanatory - Guar Gum exports (observe since Q4, FY17)

https://phreakonomics.in/export-import/micro-individual?type=exports&hscode_commodity=638&startDate=2000-04-01&endDate=2018-12-01&currency=inr&consolidation=quarter

Vikas Proppant & Granite - FY18 AR https://beta.bseindia.com/bseplus/AnnualReport/531518/5315180318.pdf

https://www.screener.in/company/531518/

then, this. :slight_smile:

Disc: Not a recommendation, just a study. I have a trading position.

7 Likes

@phreakv6

  1. Do you plan on adding a tool to write search queries like the one provided by Screener which can help identify realization trends at an early phase? I’ve been trying to do a similar thing by download daily Bhavcopy file to identify companies that are rising quickly and then read about the company’s business for the reasons.

  2. I’m not from a technical background so please ignore if this sounds stupid: Security experts point out password re-use as a common culprit behind the hacking of accounts. Can you see the password set by your website’s users?

@aswin - 1. Yes I intend to, as time permits
2. No I can’t see what password anyone sets. That would be a very serious security flaw if I could. These are reasonably strong one-way hashes (something similar to bcrypt is what I use) of passwords on the site.

I cannot reverse them to get the password without serious computing power (of the kind available to the NSA or an unreasonably long lifespan to crack it). The way the auth works is by creating another hash using the same algorithm for the password provided by user during login and then comparing with the stored hash. This makes sure that even if the database is hacked, the passwords are not easy to obtain. Hope that makes sense.

4 Likes

@phreakv6 current trend of individual commodities show up nothing. Is there any issue with that?

Thanks,
Lokesh

@gurramlokesh - Please try now, it should work.

1 Like

There is another group company Vikas WSP which is also in the same field and listed on BSE. The result for this also have been good recently and order intake is also increasing.

https://www.screener.in/company/519307/

Disc: Invested and currently in loss.

@phreakv6
On shareholders chart
If you grep out totals and replace - and colons, the result is a bit more meaningful
Is there a way to query, large changes from one month to next
In the attached, bubble size is the quantity of shares and then as bubbles drop you can see they sold out
This was done in R language

2 Likes

That looks like a quick way to visualise. Thanks for the pointer, will see what I can do.