It has been a while since I or anyone else has posted here. Sometime at the end of July 2019-early August, I sold my Intense stock holdings at an average price of approx. 25-26. I sent a private message to @zoro99, @james_kerala, @vkshetty9, @JackSparrow13 and @Salim_Khan back then, stating the same. (these were individuals who either liked all my messages or reached out to me over pm to get suggestions on what needs to be done with this stock)
After I sold my stock, the price went up to 37, (I was told that I missed out on the rally despite all my hard-work/analysis) however, has now made a new 52 week low. I want to post some of my thoughts on why I sold, for the sake of completion of numerous pages of analyses that I posted here (My intent is not to bias your buy-hold decisions):
If we consider all stocks in our stock market and give them a ‘quality score’, lets say between 0-100, then a stock like Infosys might score a 100 while a stock like Satyam will score a 0. All other stocks will be scored between 0-100, some closer to INFY, while some may be close to Satyam and some in between.
After a lot of analyses on Intense stock, I decided to give it a score of 30. This is when I posted this analysis.
While this stock has had fraudulent activities multiple times (a pump and dump is nothing but a fraud) as presented in my analysis starting here, my rationale was that some weight had to be given to factors like a) good product as seen by Gartner recognition and b) numerous clients with a good reputation c) Promoters insistence of a ‘fantastic’ pipeline of deals, 200 crore revenue pipeline with 40% conversion rate etc. d) Stock price valuation versus revenues/profits.
Further, given that we have no stringent rules/implementation of rules to check pump and dump/fraudulent operations/stock manipulation in our stock market, I expected the stock price to go up once re accumulation was done. In numerous stocks, we have seen draw-downs to shake off ‘weak hands’, and then the stock price goes up. This is what I assumed will happen to Intense tech stock, given all the above factors.
However, based on new data, I had to reconsider my assessment: a) On being asked about the 200 crore pipeline with 40% conversion rate, the promoter forgot about it and insisted that he never made the commitment (read the last conf. call transcript) b) On being asked why timely and accurate information was not given to investors thereby misleading them, the promoter started fumbling (you can listen to the conf. call as the transcript does not capture these details (?) c) Only one review was considered by Gartner to rank the product; this seems strange. However, the product is ranked last amongst all considered. d) The price could not hold above 30 (a technical multiyear support) twice during Jun-Aug 2019.
Hence my decision to sell. I re-evaluated my score on Intense stock and it is closer to 0 now. It has ‘manipulation’ written all over it (repeated pump and dump activities) and I cannot find anything good about it. It is obvious to me who the fraudsters are (who defrauded whom) but may not be the case for many investors. I will also give a score of 0 to stocks like Sankhya Infotech, Cosyn, Lycos etc. ( Cosyn’s pump and dump is very similar to that of Intense tech; plot both the charts and convince yourself)
Can the stock price go up? I think, yes, but only through manipulation(operators buying and selling amongst themselves along with ‘planted’ news). But that is no reason to hold the stock. Why will any retail investor or a fund ever buy this stock? If no one will buy the stock, why will it go up?