Here are some really interesting observations and analysis on Intense Technologies shareholding patterns. Even if you have not followed this company, I will provide enough details. This analysis will raise some key questions and there is a lot to be learnt here as shareholders in general.
I also realize that it may be difficult to understand my previous posts, so again, a lot many details below, where things will be clear:
There are 6 Parts to this analysis. Do read each of them carefully.
PART 1
First, let’s understand the sequence of events as they unfolded:
• The company generated 42 crores in revenues in FY 2016 through sales and maintenance of software
• On June 28th, 2016, the company announced a contract with BSNL worth 25 crores every year. Some estimates say this could be 40 crores. Screenshot from BSE
• Due to BSNL, revenues are expected to increase 65%-100%. From negative EPS, company is expected to generate EPS of 8-10
• In July-September 2016 quarter, company records 25% of its revenues from BSNL and posts best-ever EPS. Results announced on 10th November. Company does not reveal anything about BSNL contribution
• In Oct-Dec 2016 quarter, company records 50% of its revenues from BSNL and posts best ever sales. Company does not reveal anything about BSNL contribution
• Share price starts going up and hits a peak of 248 on Feb 9th, 2017
• However, on Feb 7th, 2017, Supreme Court says that a mobile number needs to be linked with the corresponding Aadhar number. Here is the link:
• On June 1st, 2017, there was a conference call with investors where
o The promoter says that because of the above Supreme court ruling, BSNL contract has come to a standstill. No BSE notice, no early warning, just a few statements that the 150-crore contract could be on hold.
o Promoter does not say that a substantial 21% of FY 2017 revenues needs to be written off.
o Share price is already down 60% to ~ 100 BUT WAIT:
• On March 9th, 2017, there was a conference call with investors where
o The promoter insists that BSNL contract is on track (note: Supreme court ruling came out a month earlier) and
o No disclosure about BSNL revenues contributing to a massive 50% of Q3 FY 17 revenues
o Share price is already down 40% to 150 on March 9th
If you have read and agree with what has occurred, only then continue ahead. If not please go back and read this once more and ask any questions, so that you can understand what is written below