Intellect Design Arena

Currently attending the Concall(its at the tail end right now so I’m just penning my thoughts).
To start with this is one of the best Concalls I’ve ever attended. Hopefully more and more companies shift to zoom. The presentation was fantastic and the Q&A was smooth and it feels more like a full on analysts meet rather than a normal concall. The presentation being used is published on bse… I think its too big to upload here so downloading it from bse would be the best option.
Management spoke for 35 minutes using the ppt and gave clear drivers for growth(this is the first time I can remember where their entire strategy has been fully laid out) and explained the financials perfectly. All of this is covered in the presentation for anyones perusal. The Q&A made me realise that this is a company that investors yet don’t understand and showed the confidence of the management. They answered every question asked(even some hilarious ones) and even extended the Concall.
Anyway,
In short… Don’t expect steady growth every quarter. The business can be lumpy due to deal signings taking even upto 18 months to complete. However YOY is how to compare it and they are confident of atleast 20 percent growth YOY or atleast mid to high teens. Ebidta margins long term should be 30 percent but currently expect 25 percent during this growth phase. One of the main issues is predictability of revenue… Well, license linked revenue is now 58 percent up from 50 percent. They are targeting atleast 60 percent and this will give quality revenue growth and more predictability and gross margins can even go upto 60 percent from current 56. Saas has doubled this quarter too. Eps growth is projected to be 30 percent for next 3 years but don’t expect it every quarter and exactly within 12 months since deals get delayed etc. A few more destiny deal wins and this can happen even earlier in a year(and they’ve won some pretty impressive deals this quarter). Attrition has increased but at the same time they have increased hiring and are building bench strength now too. So overall, the gradient will continue upwards for the next 3+years but it won’t be in a straight line. For eg Some long term projects needs investment upfront which will show a loss in a quarter but will provide steady revenues for a decade. They can’t make projections and guidance and have to readjust due to the inherent deal like nature of the business. Hence this business may not be for everyone in its Current form(as license linked revenues and destiny deals ramp up there should be more predictability soon enough )

Side note: The JV that led to a loss this quarter will show profits last 2 quarters of this fiscal. Tax now at 16 to 18 percent rate. No need for m and a and dividends at present with such huge growth opportunities. Rise in other income was due to sale of unused flats.

Also, Mr arun jain also answered the question about insider trading directly at the end! I am convinced with the answer but il leave that upto each one to decide after listening to it :slight_smile:

Overall I’m seeing a clear disconnect between the understanding of the company by the investors in the call vs the confidence of the management(similar to what one may see in a complex company like deepak Nitrite) and it may take a few more quarters for people to get convinced regards the predictability and trajectory and quality of the growth and feels like a company that is still in flux and is about to hit its stride.

Disc: Invested since lower levels. Added more Today post results in the crash and will add even more next few weeks if the opportunity presents itself again. Not a sebi advisor.
Note: watch the conference call recording for your self once out and don’t rely on my random summary on a forum since I am biased as an investor and have my own level of conviction. I’m assuming this result and the business model in general will lead to a lot of conflicting opinions amongst Investors so its better to build one’s own conviction.

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