IL&FS Investmanagers

Stock Opportunities
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IL&FS Investment managers (NSE code; IVC: Mcap 540 crs) is an AMC managing private equity funds in infrastructure and real estate. The source of income for the company is through asset management fees (currently earning weighted avg of 1.4%) and carry which company earns if the return on exit exceeds some pre-determined rate (generally 10-12%). But in carry, company share is only 30%, balanace distributed among management (carry not considered in current valuation). I came across this stock while reading interview of Sanjay Bakshi on Safalniveshek.com. Though Mr. Bakshi mentioned this stock in the sense at one point in the past it was trading below its liquidation value, I think even at current price of INR 26, this stock provides opportunity to benefit from positive black swan and one of those stocks which I think fall in the category aHeads I win and Tails I do not loose mucha. You can read about the company and its business model on page no. 40 of Mr. Bakshi interview here https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B8Mr8IuAEwz7WnlOTmxBWGtncjg and initiation report by Parag Parikh FAS here https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B8Mr8IuAEwz7TFpIQV84WXMzekU__

Reasons to buy:

1). Market is factoring a worst case scenario: Market factoring that AUM will fall drastically by 50% within four years (i.e earnings AUM will decline from USD2.5bn to USD 1.25bn by CY 2016) and then will grow at only 2-3% p.a. Going by the nature of income which is more like annuity, I have used discounting rate of 8% instead of my general 10%. Even If one wants to use 10% rate it will imply terminal growth rate of 5% pa in 2016, which is again not a very optimistic assumption. (Other assumptions cash profit margin of 45%, AUM fees of 1.4% and INR/USD rate of 45. And if USD/INR rate averaged 55 for next few years, this it should provide upside of another 10- 20% upside).

2). Attractive dividend yield of 5.5%: IL&FS is expected to generate INR 180 cr of free cash flow over next four years (on the back of existing earnings AUM of USD 2.4bn, so maintaining a dividend yield of 5-6% (current yield 5.7%) over next 3-4 years should not be a problem. As on Mar-12, company had net cash (inc current investments) of around 38crs. Dividend had grown at a CAGR of 40% during 2005-10 and during 2009-12 had grown modestly at 4% CAGR, inline with profit growth. So we can expect that in worst case scenario, dividend will atleast remain flat.

3). Insiders are buying: CEO had bought stake of 0.8% in the last two years. Ravi (membe of BOD) bought 0.8% stake in 2009 at P/ CEPS(price to cash EPS) of 9.6x. Other member of BOD together purchased about 1% stake in Q4 2009 when P/ CEPS was around 9x. (current P/CEPS is 5.5x)

Reasons not to buy:

  1. No fresh fund raising for next 2-3 years: Between 2000-05, company raised only USD 153m. Infact company could not raise any funds during 2000-03. So there is possibility that for another 2-3 years company is not able to raise any funds in which case share price will remain range bound. The entire increase in AUM from 2005 onwards is because of drastic growth (or bubble) in real estate sector. Currently more than 60% of AUM is from real estate PE.

  2. Costly acquisition IMHO, Saffron acquisition in Aug 2010 was one their big mistake (overpaid) and the benefits are yet to be realised. If they make any other acquisition like this, it will destroy the value. Price paid for saffron was too steep. USD 50m (INR 250 crores). At this price this deal was 25% of its then prevailing market cap, but as % of profits was hardly 10%.

Disc: Invested in stock, so opinion can be biased.

Views inviteda.

Other negatives (though not a big concern, but disclosing for completeness)

  1. Majority of the income is received in USD. Any adverse exchange rate will impact the profitability adversely. Income is in USD and expenses are in INR (I have assumed INR/USD rate of 45)

  2. Entirely dependent on international money flow. Domestic institution share is less than 2%.

  3. Pressure on fixed mgt fee. In international markets, fixed fee is 1% for real and infra and in india its still at 1.4-1.5%, so expect pressure going forward.

  4. ESOP are structured in a way which is max. beneficial to employees. Vesting period is one year and exercise period is 4 years. So even if, ESOPS are granted on MV basis, employees have free ride for four years.

  5. Around 2% of shares are issued as equity options every year. 20% of current issued capital is because of options. But 70% of options were issued during boom period of 2005-08. Also after 2009, no funds were raised by the company.

6). INR 20 crores loan to Employee welfare trust for buying stocks, but for last one year there is steep decline in share prices.

  1. Almost INR 30 crores is given as loans and deposit to parent company.
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Being in private equity space, there can be periods of subdued growth and then there would be sudden spurt in growth due to change in investment climate.
Between 2001 and 2006:
AUM grew at a CAGR of 15%
PAT grew at a CAGR of 14%
Whereas between FY 2006 and 2011,
AUM grew at a CAGR of 60%
PAT grew at a CAGR of 57.50%
Generally one can reap the benefit by staying invested in the entire investment cycle which can stretch between 5-7 years.
PE players are generally valued at % of AUM. With current AUM of 3.2 Billion$ @ rate of Re50/$, it is trading at 3.2% of its AUM. General industry band is 5-6% of AUM (It acquired saffron at 8.75% of AUM which is above industry average)
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This is the recent article from Rohit Chauhan -

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Here are few of my observations after going through con-call of last two quarters.Analysis of results of the last two quarters is meaningless. Top line is more or less constant and improvement in bottom-line lead by decline in marketing activity.:

  1. Despite optimism in primary market company is finding it difficult to exit from its real estate funds. For its real estate fund I, it will seek extension of one year from Apr-14 to Apr-15. This is positive for bottomline, but till company is able to do proper exits and payback money to LPs, it may find it difficult to raise fresh funds.

  2. Over the last six months, I have become more negative about the real estate space. Firstpost.com had carried out excellent article exposing nexus between PE, politicians and real estate players as to how real estate prices are increased artificially. Company has more than 60% of AUM from real estate sector. I will wait for the company to successfully exits from its IL&FS real estate fund I [co has said they expect full exit by Apr-15], before taking further exposure.

  3. Over the last one year, company was not able to raise any meaningful fresh funds. It has given guidance of first closing to two funds {ME infra and PIPE] with around USD 200m. This amount is quite less when we compare to the assets due for exits i.e around USD1.3bn over FY15-16.

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Now Archana Hingorani has resigned. Is there any hope of revival in performance ?
@anil1820 are you still holding it?

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Seems to have tested everyones patience, and has begun an upward move. Let us see if the fundamentals show any improvement.

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Anyone tracking this? No activity since 2017 on this forum.
It has fallen a lot from glory days. wondering if this is a good price to enter? or just speculative?
Has some cash in reserves and “other income” ensures its quarterly profit. Keeps giving dividend. Last dividend announcement was 60paisa. On a 4.5 Rs stock, thats 13%+ return (of course assuming stock price remains stable and doesn’t fall).
Wonder if this business is spun off/sold to another and it escapes “Ilfs” brand, will it have any upside?

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