You are right - there is no need for “Posting” - if you know everything about the business.
One posts to invite views and critique - to get to know the GAPS in one’s effort, learning and investment refinement.
No one at VP is an Expert. All of us are Learners in this game - from folks smarter, better, more refined at the Investment ART than us. Please realise we allow everyone to post - even a newbie - because we feel everyone can add value. We do not insist on the thread INITIATING post as a PHD on the stock. But yes, we insist on some basic guidelines being met.
So, it is not about ability. It is about the EFFORT. And, It is about the ATTITUDE.
If anyone examines the above exchange impartially, you cannot help notice:
When someone points out the gaps in the effort, there is no constructive effort to take it forward from there
If you are the thread/idea initiator (you are not someone just posting a reply) and your “real” objective is to learn from the feedback, and understand what you have missed in your analysis/effort, surely you will react differently - than what was at evidence in this thread
Instead, an attempt is made to gloss over the objections and underplay the Risks by referring to “Growth” or “Momentum” !!
Worse, there is IRRESPONSIBLE (speculative) reference to Transient Multibaggers and such hype to justify/condone the lack of serious examination/digging
Moderator interventions are completely ignored. Admin intervention is brushed off with a brusque “delete it if you like”. As HIteshbhai has commented somewhere else, such folks display this couldn’t care less bravado, do not identify with VP ethos/culture, and seem to think that they are doing VP a favour by posting here, really??
Witness this last line. In anyway myself/many old timers have almost stopped posting in VP
Thanks for responding on this important topic.
Congratulations on being a well-informed investor capable of deciding for yourself.
To think that well-informed investors like you represent the bulk of VP readership is a complete fallacy. There are close to 11,000 VP subscribers today. There is Trust and there is Credibility among newbies and learners flocking to VP in greater numbers every day who form the bulk of the readership. Compared to this totally there may be only about 500-600 folks who post at VP.
Not many may appreciate this but we consider the UN-INFORMED INVESTOR as our first and biggest RESPONSIBILITY.
Since you have responded with your valid viewpoints (on what can limit the lack of workable ideas), we fully expect you to act responsibly and also respond to the earlier response to post from Harshadbhai - about lack of effort to take forward valid inputs from other members, take-it or leave-it attitude, irresponsible/speculative remarks while justifying valid objections to the story, and completely ignoring/brushing off moderator/admin interventions - to bring the required balance to the discussion [Edit: Please see hrfacebuk member response next …on how very easily balance could have been brought to the discussion…very simply…]
Why should we condone such irresponsible behaviour that violate the Core of VP ethos and learning culture, that has taken years of painstaking effort and diligence to build up? Don’t you think there is a much greater risk of deteriorating quality of discussions at VP, if we do not intervene firmly??
IMHO, admin/moderators or other members with good intentions aren’t saying that detailed & complete analysis should be done before posting, neither the expectation is that one should know everything.
An incomplete analysis with gaps (many gaps) can also present a balanced view [presenting risks (atleast basic risks), objective/reasoning behind one’s purchase, intention/view type of holding or place it occupies in the portfolio].
Also RISKS are not only business risks etc., but we can also simply state the points that we might not have considered or were not able to get information on (as having not given thought to these points itself maybe a risk).
The point that is trying to be conveyed is that each member especially a member who understands markets a bit more needs to be cognizant of who is the audience in the forum as well. Not everybody in the forum is equipped to understand risk factors on their own and there may be members who might just get carried away by what is written (without giving much thought to what is not written). Admin’s point should also be considered in the light of from whom the comment or post is coming from, as admin expects more from an old timer or a new member who has been responsible till now. Admin knows that such member can put in a basic balanced view maybe without putting much efforts and hence it is being encouraged.
Let me try to address this with the help of a small example of the Kellton thread itself. The information could have been presented in a different manner as below to make it more balanced and could have covered maybe basic or bare minimum risks.
Risks/Points to be cautious of:
Stock price volatility - The stock has appreciated a lot in the past XX months and can be very volatile as it has seen many upper/lower circuits. Same maybe the case in future and therefore stock is not for somebody who can’t digest volatility.
Promoters - Promoters have good qualifications but I haven’t been able to get their past track record in their previous business ventures and hence their past record in running a business is unknown.
Business - Many (almost all) IT companies boast of similar businesses/capabilties that Kellton talks about and hence it is difficult to differentiate between Kellton’s business (stengths, etc.,) with the competition.
Valuations :
Trades at XX TTM PE which looks high but expected earnings growth is high or XX% hence at a 1 year forward basis it doesn’t look expensive.
Invesment objective/view - I have bought this company as a play where I see fast earnings growth to reflect in the stock price and not as a core fundamental investment idea. It is more similar to a earnings based momentum trading pick that I might exit at any time. However any views that can help build a stock story are mosty welcomed.
Disclaimer :
I don’t understand this business very well and hence can comment only on the overall industry/business prospects of these segments in general and not on Kellton’s performance/prospects in these segments.
Acquisitions - Need to dig more on how these acquisitions might have benefitted (or otherwise) the company. [Nobody expects details on this front as not everybody (a novice/new member) might be able to understand this (i.e. valuations at which acquisitions were done, margins of acquired companies, etc,.,), but atleast a note of the same can be made by stating something like above, so that readers know that this is a point that should be considered].
I have just given a very basic example using some of the existing points from the initial thread itself of how things could have been presented in a different manner.
I hope this attempt gives a bit more clarity on what is being tried to conveyed.
Dear friends
I also believe that balanced views and intent are the important factor which we should follow on VP .
I am also a new member here but participating in stock markets from last 12 years.
we surely have responsibility with the New members.
some times few wrong investments /trades in the starting days can totally divert a person interests away from equity markets,which is not good for already low acceptance of the equity as a investment vehicle in India.
Also just chasing the so called multi-baggers blindly should not be encouraged.
At the same time we should not discourage the members too much and should not make them feel like they have committed a serious crime.
We need a participation by most ,only 500 members post our of 11000 registered.
I think admins have a thankless and complex job - on one hand they do not wish to monitor content - but on other hand they have to “protect” small investors so they must monitor content.From point of view of those who post there are a few who may not directly "gain " from posting or sharing their insights and may get pissed off when they are asked to share their photo ( in rare cases ) or castigated in open forum etc.After some stage of wealth creation there are many who prefer the comfort of anonymity but would like to post or participate once in a while at their comfort.Not everyone has this "altruistic " mindset - some believe who is this small investor out of the 11000 registered is he so naive that he will buy just based on a post in an anonymous forum .
Overall my conclusion - no conclusions - let things evolve.Too much school master approach will dissuade useful posters.Too much latitude will make this another TED .
Rightly pointed out. We have to be careful of that balance. We are mindful not to be seen as sitting on “Judgement”. That’s NOT our job.
At the same time we are very CLEAR we want to encourage participation from those who value VP culture and ethos. We want to see that belongingness, that sense of pride, and responsibility.
Members have to allow and empower us to exercise that discretion when we find clear evidence to the contrary - not from just one post - but usually from a “pattern” that establishes itself. Members must also be alert and warn us if , say, we are clearly on the wrong side of that discretion. It could happen!
We would welcome feedback …that establishes errors on our part. It’s part of our growing up at VP too.
for an experienced investor, transient multibagger is a synonym for “Greater fool” concept.
how long does the transient last!?
good move by the admins. such pains are necessary to keep the “Value” & “Pick” parts of the forum intact.
i think there should be a template for new threads with combo boxes etc for questions like disclosures with options such as -“invested in last 1 week”, “forms x% of portfolio” etc.
Hello Subhash, the reasons for posts coming down from old VP timers is for the following:
a) There are no easy pickings in the market. You do not have an Ajanta/Astral/Mayur and the early VP stories which are available at a huge discount and which can be accumulated quarter on quarter. Quality in the current market is at a premium and we are all aware of it.
b) There are SEBI guidelines which are followed by most old timers and if someone is accumulating a stock it takes quite sometime to start posting on the forum.
But the above two cannot be considered good enough reasons to post without due diligence, without having an idea about management, without doing a proper risk assessment. Personally I do not post unless my conviction in the business is high, the promoter integrity is a given and if I do not see that something is left on the table for the rest of the community. Another criteria that I choose is that I should have a minimum of 5% in the story (neck in the game). Also when I post on an open platform like VP I carry a moral responsibility that I do not end up mis-guiding folks even unintentionally. The ethos of VP are quality and trust with an objective for collaborative equity research and I try to ensure that in all my posts specifically when writing a new stock story.
I have found some of your thread/responses valuable to the community and myself, I hope you keep doing contributing and doing the good work.
I personally feel VP is getting too stringent now a days. I am from ted days and feel the starting signs of ‘ted cycle’ here. I totally understand the point of protecting small investors and so forth. I think VP should allow posters to have new section to just discuss stocks, which one don’t know much and but would like here from others…
After long find one post worth reading and answering to. The rest of the post doesn’t deserve a response most of the case.
I disagree here. There are stories, you just need to dig deeper, read more ARs, listen more concalls.
Kellton is my top holding now
I have absolutely no intention to create any new thread at vp. You are being irrationally optimistic here , people here doesn’t seems to be interested in new and interesting stories here, they are much more interested in following what they feel is due procedure. They not only believe in killing messenger, they even tore apart the message itself . I concur, people have their right to to believe what they feel is “right”
The amount people spent in criticizing my post, could have been used to dug out 10 times more risks associated with the story itself. People here rather send me message, conveyed me via twitter, how disappointed with my behavior.
The problem to admin getting lax and allowing the kind of posts to discuss new stocks is that there will be a lot of low quality discussions on junk kind of stocks and at some point of time when the music stops in these counters first time naive investors who are lured by crazy price movements in illiquid counters would be burnt badly and would never come back to the stock markets.
The aim of VP remember is to educate the investors and make them better investors.
In TED there was lockout of accounts without giving any reason and without giving any chance to answer . Here it is not so and subash can put up any grievance he wants to.
I think subash nayak should take this thing in his stride and move on and start posting again whenever wherever he feels value is being added. I have always admired his investment acumen and would urge him to continue posting without any ill feelings. Just consider this as a small reprimand from a school called VP.
There will be points and arguments against the objections raised against his post but at the end of the day its no use arguing endlessly and always better to move on with a fresh start.
Free-format discussion/Queries on a stock idea are encouraged at Company Q&A section.
One can easily solicit member views on an idea where one hasn’t done much work, but wants to point others to an idea, where there is earnings momentum, hint of a turnaround, and the like.
All are free to share even prelim work in company Q&A section, or just point folks to an opportunity with just 1 or 2 paras.
But if you are going to start a thread on a stock Opportunity, you got to take responsibility. You got to adhere to the Guidelines - on opening a new thread - that have been very clearly spelt out right from the start. We believe that VP is respected for discussion quality - is primarily because of this type of simple guidelines, that have been pretty easy to follow - for those who look forward to learn from sharing and learning from the feedback on GAPS.
Those who take the stand that they cannot be bothered to work further beyond what they first post - can’t be bothered to work on the GAPS, can’t be bothered to bring a balance back into an objective discussion on the Opportunity - are simply not being responsible. If you are reluctant/can’t do the basic work required/don’t have the time, etc - its better not to use the Stock Opportunity section.
Instead such folks can restrict to posting on the Company Q&A section, for businesses where no thread exists for the specific stock opportunity. And life would be simpler, both for Admin & themselves.
As & when there is enough meat in that Company Q&A thread, someone who has the time and the passion to do the needful, can initiate the discussion in the Stock Opportunity section.
Hope things are getting clearer through more open exchanges like this.
I guess what the Admin team is saying is that the interests of the naive investor need to be protected, lest he/she stop investing after a bitter investing experience upfront, in spite of following some thread on VP.
What Subash is saying is that the naive investor needs to grow up, and cannot be spoonfed/handheld.
We all know that he started this thread to tell us which side of the sword he thinks is sharper.
This is a classic problem in mentoring (not only investing).
Someone needs to draw a line somewhere as the Admin team (metnors) did.
Lets all agree to disagree and get back to presenting our views in a constructive manner on where the line needs to be drawn.
Thanks for sharing your valued viewpoints. Our posts crossed.
Please stay true to that spirit, and respond further: Why Company Q&A Section - is not the best place for free-format idea generation exercises, as mentioned/desired.
Perhaps some new members are not aware of the utility and purpose of the different sections. But VP old-timers certainly are.
Everyone please note:
Stock Opportunity section is serious business. No slack allowed here.
Company Q&A section - is free-format. Use as light or as heavy information/base analysis as you want.
One cannot expect to disregard the Guidelines, and play it both-ways. It’s like asking to have your cake (take all the slack as you deem fit) and eat it too (yet be allowed to continue to influence an objective discussion, without being accountable).
Just as every time we board airplane, we need to compulsorily follow procedure including listening to emergency instruction from air hostess, so also moderators may be compulsorily trying to enforce certain things for the greater good.( If you take a sample estimate from people on a plane, many will say that some of this procedure need not be compulsorily enforced but it still persists).
You are a much smarter in stocks than me and when top contributors like Anant Jain and Hiteshbhai have acknowledged your skills, it comes to full stop.
I hope to hear more of your views on stocks from you in future on the forum.
Please pardon my sarcasm, but Admin sir could have moved the thread to Q&A section (without creating any scene), if it was so easy .
Also, fully appreciate people’s love for rules abiding forum. Wish you a rule abiding forum, serving thousands of naive investor, saving them from preying piranhas (Though I have serious doubts on efficacy/possibility of the same). Please, wish me sleepless night, trying to understand valuation anomalies in small/micro-cap stocks.
Frankly speaking, I was residing in an old world vp, where ideas were challenged, counter-challenged, people’s short-comings were ignored, everyone put there best foot forward, and we collaboratively find new ideas; peoples were genuinely interested in new ideas, and minting money out of it.
These days people here seems to be more interested in following rules and guidelines, finding shortcomings (rather than filling shortcomings), telling how bad someone’s behavior/post is. Sadly, I don’t feel at home here anymore !!!
Maybe I could have resisted from writing this as may not make any difference, but still maybe a last attempt to put across the POV.
True, but please imagine if all members start thinking like this then what would this lead to.
Please think if everybody starts thinking like this then how much more difficult would admin’s job become. It is like littering in a public park and if somebody objects, then asking that person to do it himself. Imagine yourself as a supervisor, would you always like to spend your time correcting other’s mistakes or would you like to guide them, so that they don’t do that mistake again. Also if its easy for admin then its easy for us too. It is just about starting the thread in relevant section.
Let us evaluate or judge the efforts on the basis of how many naive investors are educated and saved rather than how many weren’t. Even if it is 5 or 10 out of 11000, then still it is worth it. Trust me on this, as I have seen people losing thier shirts with responsibility of 2 daugthers to wed or educate. If just by writing 10 additional lines and few additional key strokes on our laptop, from the comfort of our homes, we can contribute towards this cause, then why not.
Times change. Valuepickr has evolved from those times because of positive contribution from people like you ( I personally also like many of your previous posts). Repuation and credibility has been earned by valupickr, it has got more and more visibility. With all this and in markets like this comes additional responsibility which needs to be shouldered by everybody.
Maybe the admin could have used a bit softer words to convey the message as everybody are adults over here and I know people can feel offended in a public forum. But the message was not wrong, it wouldn’t have taken much time to just start a thread in the relevant section and add few additional lines.
I personally have a lot to learn from people like you and really do think that some of your posts that I had gone through were really good and value add. Sincere request to put this behind and continue to contribute positively like you have in the past.
I think it is very important to recognize here that both the initiator of an post/stock story and the moderator/admin have good intentions as the primary driver of their posts/actions.
The initiator wants to share his/her views on a new idea which he/she feels has potential to create value for investors and hence wants to share the same with the tribesmen. On the other hand, the moderator has a job to ensure that given the wide spectrum of members on this forum, no unintended damage is done to the investors who are learning the ropes or are entering the market for the first time So, if we work with that basic premise, the context is set right for the discussion.
Then the real focus should be to ensure that the rules/guidelines are so designed to maintain the fine balance between the twin objective of both the stakeholders (Member & Admin). Instead of getting into debate around once specific instance (which of course has triggered this discussion), I feel we should delve upon
What are the key governing principles around which the guidelines
should revolve/is revolving ?
As we all understand, as any organization/forum evolves so does it’s needs. Hence, in the context of VP which is much larger today than few years ago and involves wider spectrum of investors, are current guidelines adequate to serve the need of the forum or do we need to tweak it to ensure that it meets with the needs of larger community without undermining the fundamental principles on which VP is founded?
What is SOP (standard operating procedure) for handling the deviation from guidelines in terms of communication? How do we ensure that the exception to guidelines are handled in manner that is not harsh to the member?
Having said that, I feel it is very important to have a guideline/rule based forum or else with 11,000 members participating in free flowing discussions,we risk the forum becoming another moneycontrol message board/TED. We must ensure, that VP remains a forum that is regarded for it’s structured and balanced discussions and collaborative effort. Thus, having right guidelines and enforcing them dispassionately is critical for the success of VP.
@subashnayak_19_, I am sure many on this forum will recognize your excellent contribution to this forum as I am surely one of them. VP, from it’s early years have benefited from time to time from your posts/inputs. I personally feel that it is perfectly fine to have diametrically opposite view point and yet collaboratively prosper together on forum like VP.
I am sure all of us including admin and moderator will agree that VP is because of it’s tribe and not otherwise. Based on my limited experience, I feel VP is a unique platform that is created by all of us and belongs to all of us. The sense of belonging that I see in many VP folks is exemplary. We must ensure that this unique experiment in collaborative research grows multifold and benefits the larger investor community in the long run.
