look ok…was expecting lower provisions…
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Investor presentation has not been revealed yet. Some very interesting trends from the reported results:
- NII has grown 27% YoY and around 4-5% QoQ which is quite strong growth.
- GNPA has declined QoQ from 4.6% to 4.27%. I fully expect the toll road NPA (900cr) to optically remain on books for few more Quarters even though they have started paying their EMIs again.
- Employee expenses are up 15% QoQ. some serious hiring going on. We are yet to see operating leverage kick in. if and when it does, it’ll become very interesting for investors.
- Incremental provisions of around 475cr. this is around 0.4% of book.
- There does not seem to be any movement in the restructured book. Some banks had reported higher restructured book. Does not seem to be the case for IDFC first.
Disc: invested, biased.
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NII has really grown because interest expended has fallen but interest earned is growing only 4% on a YoY basis? This seems inconsistent with the double digit growth in advances on a YoY basis reported by IDFC FB. What am I missing?
the overall reduction in interest rates all over the world 
Gross yields cannot keep rising. Specially as the risk taken by bank reduces, prime home loan increases etc.
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Duh. Thanks Sahil. Almost forgot that. I guess investor presentation will help here. Badly missing the yield number 
Surprised by the strong growth in opex and employee benefit expenses. Look forward to the concall on what is the guidance here.
NII slightly up by 0.27% QoQ
AND Interest expense is down 4%
Looks like Nim will be up QoQ
Provisioning drastically down, 475 Vs 1872 Crores, just like VV had promised that the worst is behind us. This must be comforting for some of us who were worried about NPAs in Auto Lending in the South.
Opex is up… And up…
This is expected of a Management which is looking at a 20% cagr growth. I was a little woeful at first, but realised that due to this tendency to want to grow the stock will most likely be rated close to 60PE in the near future.
Awating investor presentation.
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Interest on Balances with RBI has grown 2x YoY and 4x QoQ, why is the bank parking huge sums with RBI? Does it mean they flushed with CASA and are playing it safe?
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Can I still participate or register for the earning call ? If yes can anyone share the link or dial in numbers please ?
Please read the thread. This specific point has been discussed at least 2-3 times. 
At least please filter to my posts. I have personally discussed this 2-3 times.
Tldr summary: all the opex counts in retail segment. Key thing to monitor is the trajectory of the losses. Incrementally the losses are getting narrower. I expect braake even point sometime in next 1 year and thereafter profits in year 2/3.
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Investor Presentation
Yes. They’ve mentioned this point in the investor presentation. 174% is the current LCR and they intend to reduce it gradually (dry powder for more advances in near term I guess?)
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Any updates on the reverse merger in the concall?
So our analysis above was correct, Rs 487cr of provisions for VI should be released in Q3/Q4 and provide an additional buffer if required. Assuming ofcourse VI pays but no reason to think otherwise now.
Other main takeaway for me is the CC guidance is maintained and this is without assuming any writeback from VI-
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In the concall one person asked this specific question, but VV does not want to reveal anything more that what’s known publicly.
Concall is going on and it’s really helpful.
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Yes. When asked how they plan to maintain the 25% Growth in Retail book, Sudanshu said they have plenty of LCR and if need be they will increase deposit rates.
Management seemed pretty confident about liquidity and future growth. Devanand particularly positive about wholesale or inforgrowth but yes they are zoned in for Retail loan book growth.
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From the concall one very important thing I learnt is that the cost to Income ratio is not going to start looking beautiful anytime soon just like we had been expecting on this thread, thanks to @Puch and @sahil_vi
But within a year or two, cost to income is likely to be around 50% as the loan book increases. This what was achieved in Capital First.
As cost to Income improves RoA and RoE will also improve. But, that is not going to happen anytime soon. Give it couple of years.
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Their credit card is silently increasing 50% QoQ!
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My takeaways from conference call.
- NIMS are at all time high of 5.7% and will stabilise at 6%.
- Have excess liquidity @ 172% as against requirements of 100% as per RBI. As a result bank will not grow their liability book for 1 or 2 more quarters to drain excess liquidity.
- Expect cost to income ratio at elevated levels for FY 22 and will see the operating leverage kicking in FY 23.
- Collection efficiency last quarter was at 1% lower than pre-covid levels and this quarter has surpassed even the pre-covid levels and past NPAs are paying back.
- GNPAs and NNPAs will stabilise to 2% and 1% sooner than expected.
- Will not systematically bring down corporate book but will bring down infrastructure book and grow Retail book by 25% easily.
- The guidance of 3000 crore provisioning remains unless third wave and Vodafone Idea plays out. Next year 2% guidance for NPA on track.
- Bank will earn 250 crores par quarter by reprising of legacy loans, 325 per quarter as our retail business matures and 75 crores per quarter once Credit Card business achieves breakeven in all additional 650 crores per quarter profits just by realigning business and achieving critical mass.
- The CEO said you have been with us 3 years patiently now see in next 3 years where we will be.
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See the filing done by Ujjivan yesterday regarding the swap ratio, discount is as good as negligible. If they had followed the method you suggested the discount would have been much higher.
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