IDFC First Bank Limited

Why is the market not properly valuing IDFCFB?Frankly speaking I’ve been asking myself the same question for the past few days. The valuations are becoming more and more attractive. The outlook for the bank is very positive but the following may be the reasons for correction.

1.) FII holding reduced by more than 250bps and DII holding reduced by more than 150 bps in the March 2022 quarter (comparison with Jun 2021). I can understand the FII selling but I feel most DIIs are sticking with the Big 4 pvt banks and SBI. Every analyst on the TV talks about these 5 banks. Institutional buying is required for share price appreciation and the FII selling and limited DII interest is playing spoil sport.

2.) There are banks with much better return ratios ex: Axis Bank with ROE close to 15% and ROA close to 1.5% and trading below 2 times book value. So IDFCFB which has just become profitable at 1.1 or 1.2 times book value vs Axis with good return ratios at 2 times book value. No surprise if conservative investors bet their money on Axis. Thus Relative valuation also is not helping.

3.) The Macro scenario is also not that great. Investors are afraid of a possible recession and slowdown in credit growth. I don’t think IDFCFB will be immune to these kind of situations.

4.) Focus on the method/process rather than the end result: V.Vaidyanathan is conservative and wants to improve the fundamentals of the bank. The management is not taking any short cuts for short term results. Although this is a positive, in the stock price point of view, you need to be patient and wait for that much long for the story to unfold. This is going to be a big test and those who are worried about the opportunity cost will not stay for sure. Why wait for 2-3 years for the stock to appreciate. Can we enter after the bank starts delivering the promised results at higher valuation?

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DII share in IDFC increased by almost 5% in the last quarter.

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I was referring to IDFCFB and not IDFC Ltd.

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Why the banks stock price isn’t increasing?

Look at it from a retail investor or Fund Managers perspective, who is agnostic about the internal dynamics of the bank.

I say agnostic, because he or they might not have an ounce of faith in VV or his capabilities, probably because they have been in the grind for so long, have witnessed narratives fail way too often, that they have decided to look upon the numbers first and the narrative later.

And I believe this is a large chunk of the investing community.

We, on the other hand, who have invested in this Bank at this stage are comparatively naive. Maybe we haven’t had truly bad experiences in the past.

Point being, within an year, when the numbers have lined-up and the narrative is intact, that is when the fund houses will make a beeline. Retail investors will come in throngs.

Kotak Mahindra has mostly traded around 35PE
Bajaj Finance near 55PE

This is where Idfcfirst bank belongs. It appears to be a matter of time.

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IDFCB is the story of one salaried person, who having learnt the banking business, wanted to create his own bank. And he has done it. He may own only a few percentage of shares but there is no doubt that for last three years IDFCB has been his story and would continue to be his story for foreseeable future. And VV is certainly not going to get diverted by shareholder expectations from his direction. If glitches like unexpected weak legacy assets or Covid induced headwinds came up, he engaged them with a long term view. There has been no difference between his spoken word and his actions. And his actions to turn around the bank are like a case study.

Therefore like Sahil pointed out, there is no point in looking at daily price unless one is looking to add. As long as the thesis is intact and nothing happens to disrupt it, the returns would happen. Big boys would start joining the bandwagon when the merger has taken place. In my limited experience, two companies shackled together, always mark time till the time they actually become one entity.

Bank performance would become more than crystal clear by Q4 FY23.

Share performance would also become crystal clear by Q4 FY 24 as merger should be over by then.

A chill pill for another three years is in order for obtaining best results out of this investment.

Invested.

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I very much agree with the comments of Sahil Jamit05 and rpm. The Bank has hit headwinds because of a number of legacy accounts and then with COVID. Yet on most parameters deposits, casa, operating profits, etc the bank has done great. Image of the bank is also great. When we speak to employees at the branches etc. they all have good things to say about business offtake, deposits, cross sell etc. so informal smell is good.

now it all comes down to one thing… can VV deliver on profits promised by him. To be fair other parameters are doing fine and as guided/ better than guided. Never changed one guidance or track. But he has said sharp increase in profits for FY 23. I am waiting with bated breath.

If he delviers and takes bank to 15plus exit ROE , then this will be a winner. Someone please try doing the maths of P to Book and see what the price should be.

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Idfc First Bank started charging yearly fees on debit card

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At lower end this adds 100cr to pbt. 200 rupees. 50 lakh accounts.

What will be interesting to see is how this impacts casa, casa ratio, growth of casa. Depending on quantum of casa growth in light of this move we can judge the stickiness of it

All major banks charge for account in one way or another (some minimum balance, some yearly charges).

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The only reason i have an account in idfc is because of 4 reasons :-
1)there excellent customer service.
2)3 in 1 account with zerodha ,leading to seamless and fast transfer between my bank and zerodha
3)Better interest rates then other banks.
4)Low or no charges like bank annual charges ,debit card fees , imps ,no cap on transaction limits etc .

I used there debit card to withdraw money in my recent foreign trip and was impressed as i was charged only 2.4% vs 7% for my friends hdfc card.

i also feel there are way more discreet and upfront about there charges and due to all these reasons ,it had became my go to bank for everything.

But slowly i am starting to see all the benefits that i derived when i opened the account a few years back going away from 6% interest rates to 4 to 4.5 % ,losing rewards on there credit cards, recent introduction of debit card charges 500 rs which is extremely high imho highest in all my banks i will be paying,introduction of there own demat service which sooner or later they might end there 3 in 1 tie-up with zerodha .

All these things combined i would feel much more comfortable parking my money in a safer bank like hdfc or axis where i might be rewarded with better credit cards ,safety of funds and lower charges for day to day transaction.

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Agree. Same kind of curiosity was there that if they will be able to maintain CASA when they reduced saving account interest rates. Now this will also be real test to maintain/increase saving accounts. As it is I am hearing whisper on twitter that this will be first bank to charge on debit cards for salaried accounts…

My entire family has IDFC FB account. We have savings accounts as well as current account. All in all, there are 6 debit cards. That means almost Rs3000 charge per year for my family. Have raised a request to surrender 4 of the cards. Will keep just 1 savings account and 1 current account debit card.

The more worrisome thing is I had to learn about these new charges on this forum. There was no official communication from the bank for the same.

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Does anyone have any info on the Bank’s advances’ split between fixed, EBLR and MCLR rates? This might be crucial for NIM with the rise in interest rates.

Disc - Invested.

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Banking industry performance is considered a proxy on the economic performance of the country. The FY 22 nominal GDP growth reported today is 19.5% and after inflation deflator at 8.7%. I suppose the banks and the borrowers would be governed by the nominal growth rather than the real growth. In that case the credit growth of banks going forward should be 1.5X ie around 29%.
Any comments from people having knowledge ?

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Before writing my opinion I want to share my credentials here, I’m a branch manager in a regional rural bank.
My bank is a very small regional rural bank confined to 4 districts. Our profits were about 40 crores in year 2017. This financial year our bank profit is 400 crores and net NPA is zero and gross NPA is 2.5% which is mostly crop loans of farmers. And our crar is 16% , before AQR of RBI the bank used to hide NPA but our books are the cleanest they have ever been.
This is the scenario of a govt owned rural based bank in India and now imagine the scenario of private bank which is small in size but big in ambitions with a leader like VV at the helm.
Here is what I feel about the banking industry and in particular of idfc first bank.
Few of the boarders might have seen my earlier critical posts on idfc first bank, but after all these demonetisation , gst , nbfc crisis, COVID lockdowns , Vodafone saga and many what can go wrong have gone wrong incidents and still idfc first bank is standing and is ready to punch way above it’s weight from this year. And it’s time for me to change my mind and buy the bank.
Idfc first bank couldn’t do well in the period of 2017 to 2022 where banks like SBI , ICICI banks have done extremely well because of the legacy issues of idfc bank. Now all the issues are sorted out ,the time is for the humongous growth ahead.
This is my opinion because the Indian banks balance sheets are strongest they have ever been in history , Many banks are having crar of 16 %. And the capex cycle of Indian economy is about to begin. There are and will be many credit worthy customers which these banks will compete to do business. There is a big pie and it’s getting bigger because of inflation.
Next few years will be a wonderful period for the banking industry. We are hopeful of more good business less NPAs and idfc first bank due to its small market capitalisation is presenting a no brainer buying opportunity here. I’m betting my house on it. Because I belive if i don’t take concentrated bets I will never become wealthy.
The bank is a good buy because the chances of growing profit at least 5 to 6 times are there. As a banker this is what I feel because my bank has done it, and I can see no reason for idfc first bank for not growing profits in current scenario. There is extremely likely scenario of story of ICICI bank is about to happen here and i don’t want to miss this chance.

Disclosure: invested significant portion of portfolio today.
I’m not a sebi registered investment advisor.

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I have a small question. To grow the loan book they need cash. their debt to equity ratio is already 7.5. In concall vv mentioned no equity dilution in fy23 and reverse merger with idfc will also take time because they don’t want to merge at this valuation. Then how they will get the money for loan book growth at 25%? In the concall @sahil_vi asked the same question but I could not understand the answer. Can anybody please explain it to me? I have absolutely no doubt that the bank’s earnings are about to explode and rerating will happen. I just don’t understand how they will get money without equity dilution. My knowledge is limited. please help :smiley:

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Here the issue might be that the price doesn’t follow our personal pov for many years. In fact, it might do the opposite. Price may correct to Rs 20, then what. Retail investors’ conviction will be tested.

One must ensure he has a strong mindset if the bet in concentrated.

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What was the question, and the answer. Could you pls type it out.

Here’s @sahil_vi 's conversation with VV in the last earnings call:

Sahil Sharma:
My first question is to understand our CASA strategy. If you look at our CASA book its growth
has been slightly lower than our loan book growth in Q4 and also FY22. The liability franchised
the backbone of any modern retail bank. So, what I am wondering is what is our strategy on the
CASA side and whether it is possible first to improve our CASA ratio even from here, beyond
50%. Related to that I think what you have mentioned is that current accounts are fiscal….?

V. Vaidyanathan:
Hold on, let’s take one question at a time, it will make our life easier. The CASA is easy one to
handle actually. See, last year we were running LCR of 150%. So, that’s a lot of money, excess
lying either with RBI or a repo or somewhere. So, our reverse repo also, we were not getting
enough returns. This year onwards, we want to pay the loan book, we will press the accelerator
on deposits, we will get it. We really don’t see any concerns. I mentioned in my opening remarks,
how we raised about 25,000 crores, even in a COVID year. I’m telling you maybe there are
concerns about our bank that you might have had about our profits and all, the past but I hope
you’ll agree with me that our bank really is a respected brand. We get deposits, huge deposits
from retail, not the bulk deposits kinds and when we just want to press the peddle on the
liabilities, it just comes pouring in.

Sahil Sharma:
Can we expect it to grow roughly at the rate of the loan book so that the CASA ratio is
maintained, roughly?

V. Vaidyanathan:
Yes, we will go a little bit fast. We think that 50 is no problem for us to maintain.

Sahil Sharma:
Related to that my question was, I think our current accounts are around 15% to 18% of CASA right now and I wanted to understand what kind of initiatives you have taken to grow your
current account book and whether there is an opportunity to cross sell our current accounts to
our MSME retail borrowers?

V. Vaidyanathan:
Great question. It’s a good observation also that our current account is as a proportion of CASA
so to say is not good enough and we need to improve on that. For us savings account pressing
the button on savings account is easy one, we just pressed it and we got it but we will start
working on current account a little more because that requires as you know, as we build this this
even in a previous organization, but it takes time to build it because you need to build good
technology, good ecosystems, capture that flow of money from end-to-end, from business-tobusiness, then didn’t give ads, multiple solutions to customers which are not just banking related.
It could be accounting solutions and HR solutions, legal solutions, we got to build all those
capabilities. We’re building this up right now and we are quite confident that we will make a
mark in that space also.

Sudhanshu Jain:
Just to add, the proportion of CA in the overall CASA has improved from 11% to 18% and our
endeavor would be to take it to 30% in due course, like other good banks.

Sahil Sharma:
We had launched an amazing credit card product and the rate of interest here is sort of dependent
on the customer credit profile. I think the idea here was that it might encourage some of our
customer base to revolve credit for one that are comfortable revolving credit. Have you seen that actually pick up and can you share any kind of data on what percentage of our credit card
customer be who are actually revolving their credit and how this compares to industry?

V. Vaidyanathan:
By the way, there’s a lot of disturbance on your line. If you don’t mind keep it on mute mode,
it’ll help others. On the credit card front, typically in the business takes time to start getting about
a 50% of the loan, of the book to start having interest income. Typically, you can think of it like
about 25% of the book could be revolver, about 25% of the outstandings could be installment
based where the customer is not revolving but customer is choosing to convert the transaction to
an installment and balance 50% of straight forward transactors they just pay up on time. We
would say, we are a little behind the industry at this point of time because we are still a newer
player, we are just 1 year into the business. But as this plays out for the next 1 or 2 years, we
will definitely get better. But good thing about our bank is that our customer complaints are
really very low. By the way, we are a new bank. It’s not that people knew our credit cards
compared to other banks who have 15-20 million cards each, maybe 15 million and we just have
maybe 6,00,000-7,00,000 today. So, despite being a new player the spends on our cards is really
good and delinquency is very low on this business for us. All this is coming because right in the
beginning when we launched the card, we didn’t try to gain the customer, figuring out if we price
it like this, I’ll make more money, less money. We straight forward made really good product
for the customer. We didn’t say that if you spend so much, I will waive your fees. If you do that,
we straight away set it free for life or no annual fee. We straight away paid good reward points,
we straight away said that reward point can be redeemed for the next purchase; something that
really nobody does in our knowledge. Everybody wants to give some catalog against it. Though
we are planning to introduce a fee structure for redemption of the reward point but I guess it’ll
be nominal. Customers will have already been notified. Basically, we have put a really simple
product and a really customer friendly product. I think it will pay back in due course, maybe a
little slow but we’ll pay back very well and pay back in a sustainable manner to us.

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@Ayshi could not find the talk around sourcing equity. Am really looking forward to knowing management’s stance around it.

Okay so let me just compile instances I can think of where he has spoken about their plans/ability to raise money directly or indirectly. You can take the call as to what to make of them.


Q4FY22 Earnings Call:
Ishan Agarwal: Do we have any capital raise plans for FY23? Given we already are envisaging a 20%-25% loan growth, Tier I capital I’m talking about?

V. Vaidyanathan: No.


Q4FY22 Earnings Call
Extract from VV’s Response to Kunal Shah:

Now the next point to address after addressing deposits, after posting growth, addressing growth,
after talking about asset quality is our confidence on the capital front. Because after all if we
want to grow the book at 20%, we need to have capital by our side. On this front our bank is
strongly capitalized. We’ve got 16.7% is the capital. We also have significant headroom for Tier
2 because we haven’t raised rates much of that. We can always raise some Tier 2 and we have
sufficient headroom to grow


In An Interview with ET Now:
Question: When it comes to CASA, your savings account rate is extremely fluid. Where do you see these rates and are you looking to stabilise your CASA? Where would you see that as a percentage of your total deposits?

V. Vaidyanathan: On the savings account interest rate, last year we were just so liquid and there was excess liquidity and it is a big drag on the bank’s profitability. So we had to slow down. We brought down interest rates on savings accounts and credit growth of only around 10-12% was expected. This year we are expecting credit growth – retail, wholesale all put together – to maybe 20-22%. Corresponding to that, we will need liabilities. Basically, it was very need driven and we have shown earlier that we are able to raise substantial sums of money on retail liabilities because of our brand and product and so on. On the CASA front, we feel that we will sustain 50% going forward and we do not see any problem or risk to that.


In an Interview with Financial Express:
Question: How will you generate the deposits required for this growth?

V. Vaidyanathan: Last year, despite dropping savings interest rates, our average daily CASA (current accounts savings accounts) grew from 41.5% in FY21 to 49.5% in FY22. I hope you’ll agree that that’s really something. So raising deposits is not an issue for us, we have proven it. People trust our brand. We have to raise more current accounts. We will focus on it this year. We need to make our branches manage complete customer relationships across assets and liabilities.


Disclaimer: My understanding of the relevance of these instances may be flawed.

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