How much Bull Run left?

Q&A: Questions & Answers
1

Friends, I am seeing multiple opinions like:

  1. Bull Run continues for 2 more years
  2. Bull Run ends by next Deepavali

Any thoughts / updates?
Is it wise to continue investing more / 50-50 mix of stocks-fd?

2

Hey buddy,

I am a firm believer of Value investing and the best bargains are found in bearish phases. So I personally do not care about stock quotations as long as my companies continue to remain debt free and keep increasing their EPS YoY.

Peter Lynch said that if you spend 15 mins a year on broad economic picture and analysis…you have wasted 14 mins of your year.

Same thoughts have been echoed by Warren Buffett, R.K Damani & our guru Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.

Cheers
Neil Bahal

3 Likes
3

Thanks!

But, the above people are dealing with LARGE CAP stocks, so the loss will be less around 30-50%.

Since, I am dealing with smallcap & midcaps - the profit can be 500% and a drastic bear market can make it down to -80%. The risk is more here as these companies may not have the maturity to sail a recession period. So If I properly play here, I can exit at the top & enter the bottom (ensuring value parameters) giving another 25X returns! (means a 1 lakh zoomed to 5 Lakh can be sold at peak, reentered at bottom with another 5X returns in recovery making 25 Lakhs… where as the buy&sit guy will get only 5Lakhs returns)

I have noticed there were smart people who exited all holdings around Jan 2008, recently some Cera investors sold at 3000 level before the current-crash which made it to 2000 level. This theory of “timing” constitutes the modern-innovative strategy additional to value-investing.

Although, we don’t have the tools to time it - we can see 2000, 2008 had an 8 year gap of boom-recession-flat period. The time coincides here that 2016 is one peak time.

Let me know your constructive thoughts.

4

This is wishful thinking and will not always play out as you think, in fact you might loose your position on a good performing stock. I understand your urge to make 25x returns by timing the market, it is not easy to fully comprehend staying long and compounding money over many years until you actually do that a couple of times.

Speculative and doesn’t add much value to the question you are asking.

5

I believe, all of us have thought about timing the market as beginners. Most of us learn by experience that it is not always possible. You need insane luck to time trades perfectly.

My advise will be, get out whenever the valuations make you uncomfortable. Or else greed will eat into your funds.

Sitting on the sidelines does not cost money, playing the game more than necessary does.

2 Likes
6

Yeah! That makes sense.

For eg: I was holding Manappuram with 100% profit during 2007 period even at High Valuations. Later the QR turned disaster and still continue holding the stock. NIFTY PE was peak, and I discarded it too.

In few years I ended up with 90% loss on the stock. I sold it.

The summary is:

  • Try to see the bigger picture above the company, the economy, gold trend
  • If QR results are consistently bad, there are some serious issue with management, sector or economy
  • There are real smart players who exited at the peak. So don’t say “you cannot”, say you “do not know”
  • Not all stocks are good as Infosys to buy and hold for 20 years. Even smart Infosys pickers sold them on NIFTY peaks and reentered at bottom there by adding another 2-5X gains on total gain.

Thank You for your thoughts.