How I turned my stock portfolio Green

How I Turned My Stock Portfolio Green

My mutual fund journey was working. My stock-market journey wasn’t. So I started looking for the mistake.

My mutual fund journey started about seven years ago, through SIPs.

I didn’t do anything extraordinary.

I simply kept investing and stayed patient.

Over time, my invested capital in mutual funds has grown to more than twice what I originally put in.

So, in mutual funds, I would say I have been reasonably successful.

But my stock-market journey was almost the exact opposite.

I failed repeatedly.

I followed reputed investors.

I took stock tips.

I tried building diversified portfolios.

I paid for financial magazine subscriptions.

I even tried following a trading system suggested by a colleague at work.

Almost everything failed.

Sometimes I made money for a while, only to give it back.

Sometimes I picked a fundamentally good company but bought it at the wrong price.

Sometimes I held a falling stock because I was convinced it would recover.

Sometimes I sold in panic—only to watch the stock recover immediately afterward.

After enough failures, I finally started asking myself a different question:

“What am I doing wrong?”

And then I looked at my mutual fund journey.

What had actually helped me there?

It wasn’t some secret formula.

It wasn’t perfect timing.

It wasn’t predicting the market.

It was something much simpler:

Time.

Patience.

And the willingness to stay invested through the noise.

The funny thing is—I had those qualities in both my mutual fund and stock investments.

So why was one working while the other wasn’t?

That question forced me to look much more deeply at my stock-picking process.

I started going through my mistakes.

I started thinking about the stocks I had bought, the stocks I had sold, the winners I had exited too early and the losers I had held too long.

Slowly, I began rebuilding my approach.

I stopped trying to copy other investors.

I stopped believing that more information automatically meant better decisions.

I started developing my own rules.

And gradually, something changed.

My stock portfolio started turning green.

Not because I suddenly became an expert.

But because I started understanding my own mistakes.

This is the story of how I did it.

1. I stopped looking for the perfect stock

When I started investing, I was fascinated by the idea of finding a 5X or 10X stock.

I wanted the next multibagger.

The next company nobody had discovered.

But eventually I realised that this mindset can become dangerous.

A stock doesn’t have to become a 10X for me to make a good investment.

What I want now is:

Strong fundamentals + structural sectoral tailwind + reasonable valuation + improving execution.

I don’t necessarily want the most popular stock in a sector.

I want a good business where I believe the market may still be underestimating the opportunity.

2. I started thinking in terms of allocation

Instead of asking only:

“Is this a good stock?”

I started asking:

“Is this good enough to deserve a place in my limited portfolio?”

I don’t want 30–40 stocks.

My preference is around 10–11 holdings.

That forces me to be selective.

I want my allocation to reflect conviction, while making sure that one mistake doesn’t destroy the entire portfolio.

For me, portfolio construction became as important as stock selection.

3. I learned to cut my mistakes

One of my hardest decisions was exiting Sharda Motor.

The position had moved substantially against me.

Eventually, the stock broke my technical risk-management framework, and I decided to accept the loss rather than keep hoping for a recovery.

It wasn’t pleasant.

But it taught me something important:

A small realised loss is often better than allowing a bad investment thesis to become a permanent problem.

I don’t need to be right every time.

I need to make sure that my mistakes don’t overpower my successful investments.

4. I created a simple sell rule—even though I don’t understand technical analysis

Here’s something unusual about my approach.

I don’t really understand technical analysis.

I’m not someone who can look at a chart and confidently identify every pattern or formation.

But I do follow one simple technical rule:

If my holding breaks below the 50 EMA, I seriously consider getting out.

That’s it.

For me, the 50 EMA isn’t a prediction tool.

It’s a discipline tool.

I’ve used this rule with stocks such as HDFC AMC and Kirloskar Pneumatic.

I exited when they broke down through the 50 EMA.

Looking back, those exits turned out to be correct.

That gave me confidence in something very simple:

You don’t need to understand every part of technical analysis to use one technical rule for risk management.

5. But I also learned not to panic sell

If HDFC AMC and Kirloskar Pneumatic taught me the value of my 50 EMA rule, Ingersoll Rand taught me the danger of emotional selling.

One day the stock was down nearly 10%.

I panicked.

I sold.

And then the painful part happened.

The stock moved up the very next day.

I never got another chance to enter at the price where I had sold.

That experience stayed with me.

Because I hadn’t sold because my predefined investment rule had been triggered.

I sold because I was afraid.

There’s a huge difference.

A disciplined exit says:

“My rule has been triggered. I will exit.”

A panic exit says:

“It’s falling badly. I need to get out before it gets worse.”

The first is a process.

The second is emotion.

Now, whenever a stock falls sharply, I try to ask myself:

“Am I selling because my thesis has broken—or because I’m scared?”

That question has become extremely important to me.

6. I learned to let my winners run

This was another major change.

Some of my holdings have generated very strong returns, with Macpower CNC becoming one of the biggest winners in my portfolio.

Earlier, I might have been tempted to book profit simply because a stock had risen substantially.

Now I follow a simple rule:

I will not sell a winner as long as it stays above the 50 EMA.

For me, the 50 EMA acts as a trailing exit rule.

I don’t need to predict the top.

I don’t need to decide whether the stock has gone “too high.”

If the thesis remains intact and the stock stays above my 50 EMA, I give the winner room to run.

This changed my thinking completely.

Instead of asking:

“How much profit should I book?”

I ask:

“Has my exit rule been triggered?”

That’s much more objective.

7. I stopped averaging blindly

A falling stock isn’t automatically cheap.

Sometimes the market is temporarily wrong.

Sometimes the business itself is getting worse.

Those are completely different situations.

Before adding to a falling position, I now ask:

“If I didn’t already own this stock, would I buy it today?”

If the answer is no, I shouldn’t average simply because my average price looks uncomfortable.

8. I started looking for sectoral tailwinds

My stock selection has increasingly moved toward businesses that can benefit from long-term structural changes.

Power equipment.

Grid modernisation.

Electrification.

Renewables.

Defence.

Industrial manufacturing.

Healthcare.

These themes don’t guarantee success.

But I like the idea of owning businesses that have a structural reason to grow, rather than depending entirely on market sentiment.

QPower is one example of this thinking.

The attraction wasn’t simply the chart.

It was the broader opportunity around power equipment, electrification and grid investment.

9. I became comfortable looking beyond popular stocks

I don’t particularly want to own whatever stock everyone is talking about.

I’m more interested in finding businesses where:

fundamentals are strong or improving,

the sector has a long runway,

valuation isn’t absurd,

execution is improving,

and the opportunity isn’t completely priced in.

I don’t expect all of them to work.

I only need a few exceptional investments.

10. I became comfortable holding cash

Earlier, I felt that cash sitting idle was a problem.

Now I see it differently.

Cash gives me optionality.

If the market corrects, I can buy.

If a stock on my watchlist reaches my preferred valuation, I can act.

If an existing holding becomes a much better opportunity, I can increase allocation.

I don’t need to be fully invested every day.

Sometimes patience means doing nothing.

11. My portfolio doesn’t need every stock to be green

This may be the most important lesson.

My portfolio currently has both winners and losers.

Some positions have delivered strong double-digit gains.

Some are still significantly below my purchase price.

But the overall portfolio has moved into healthy double-digit territory.

That is what matters.

I don’t need every stock to work.

I need my winners to be bigger than my mistakes.

12. Today’s DYCL fall reminded me of everything I’ve learned

Today, DYCL fell sharply after the market reacted to UltraTech’s entry into the wires-and-cables business.

It was painful to watch.

But this is exactly where my new process gets tested.

The emotional reaction is:

“It’s down 10%. Sell!”

The rational question is:

“Has my investment thesis fundamentally changed?”

Those aren’t the same question.

A new competitor is obviously something I need to analyse seriously.

But a one-day fall doesn’t automatically tell me whether the long-term business thesis is broken.

And this is exactly why I need rules rather than emotions.

What actually changed?

Looking back, I don’t think I suddenly became an expert stock picker.

I simply became better at managing my investments.

I learned to:

Cut weak positions.

Let winners run.

Avoid blind averaging.

Keep some cash.

Use the 50 EMA as my discipline tool.

Use fundamentals for conviction.

Look for structural sectoral tailwinds.

Avoid excessively expensive stocks.

Rotate capital when a better opportunity appears.

And most importantly—don’t panic.

My biggest lesson

My mutual fund journey taught me the power of time and patience.

My stock-market failures taught me that time and patience alone aren’t enough if the process is wrong.

I needed both:

Patience + a process.

I don’t claim that I’ve figured out the stock market.

Far from it.

I’m still learning.

There will be more mistakes.

There will be more red days.

There will be stocks I sell too early.

There will be stocks I hold too long.

And there will be winners that surprise me.

But now I have something I didn’t have when I started:

My own investment framework.

And perhaps that’s the biggest reason my portfolio finally started turning green.

I didn’t turn my portfolio green by being right all the time.

I turned it green by making my winners bigger than my mistakes.

This is not a story about perfect stock picking.

It’s a story about failing, analysing those failures, building my own rules—and slowly becoming a better investor.

AM I IN RIGHT PATH?

36 Likes

Isn’t 50 EMA too short to sell on your long term investments, especially when the thesis stays intact?

2 Likes

I think it’s 50 weekly EMA. similar to 200 Daily EMA

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Thank you Vnk for comment. No, it’s not too short to exit. I believe if a stock breaks 50 Ema, downtrend starts and money may stuck there for long time. Rather I prefer to rotate capital in another momentum stock. I want not to wipe out my profits holding long. If thesis is intact, story is good, I may prefer 200 Ema for ultimate exit. In that case story and guidance should be encouraging. As a retail investor, we should not try to find mulibagger, we should try to make most of the portfolio stock green. As examples, 9 out of my 11 stock is in double digit return. Macpower give more than 100% return, still hold as it is above 50 Ema.

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No. It’s daily Ema. When you wait for 200 Ema for exit, your profit will decrease heavily. Atleast I think so.

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Do u re enter a stock after exit based on 50ema breach? If yes how n when you buy back?

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Yes, I do. I usually reenter a stock when it stabilises near 20 Ema. I sold macpower at 1000, my buy price was 700-800 rs. I reentered it again when it made based near 20 Ema. Around 837 -925 I brought it again. I also re entered in HDFC AMC in same strategy. Although I recently sold it again when it breaks 50 Ema. Now HDFC AMC is below all Ema. It’s trading in a tight range. When it moves above 20 Ema, opportunity will come. I also brought again METSL in same way.

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I also feel 50 EMA is more like trading than long term investing, Growth stocks revert to mean and also touch or break 50, routinely. News makes them do this all the time.

I think 200 is a better filter for long term. More importantly, 50 isn’t often enough to break conviction or a thesis.

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Yes Garuna, I agree with you. 200 Ema is good for long term. It should be. But I obey 50 Ema as my rule. And believe me, I trade very less. I trails 50 Ema. But not as hurd rules. I gives 2/3 rs buffer. If 50 Ema is 488, I consider it as 484/485. It works. I have stock with 32%, 55%, 100% return as of today. It’s not trading. Everyone should have his own rules as per risk appetite. Thank you for your valuable response.

2 Likes

Just enjoyed your elaborate explanation of your thesis – Simple is beautiful

If I were to summarise your thesis -

  • Find a stock with strong fundamentals in emerging or sectors with tailwinds - + Above 50EMA
  • Watch regular performance and check if Investment thesis remains intact
  • DONOT average losers
  • Average upwards if conviction
  • Exit at 50EMA - (simple and only rule)
  • Restrict holding to 10-15 stocks
  • Hold cash rather than compulsarily deploying

Can you share the results after the change in following parameters :

  • No of trades per year
  • Portfolio churn
  • Any observation performance about stocks that you exited.
1 Like

Thank you. I think these are exactly the right parameters to track. I have started tracking them, although it is still too early to draw any long-term conclusions.

A few observations so far:

• Number of trades: Since implementing this framework, I have had 8 realized trades this year — 7 profitable and 1 loss (Aequs). The older exits such as Sharda Motor was from my pre-thesis portfolio, so I don’t think they are a fair measure of the new process.

• Portfolio churn: It has reduced meaningfully. Earlier I was constantly buying, selling, averaging and replacing stocks. Now I am deliberately restricting the portfolio to around 10–15 stocks( as of today I have only 10 holding, 8 in core portfolio, 2 in secondary portfolio) and am comfortable sitting on cash when I don’t find a suitable opportunity.

• Exits: The biggest change has been my exit discipline. I don’t try to predict the exact top anymore. If the 50 EMA breaks, I exit, irrespective of my purchase price or my attachment to the stock. DYCL and Aequs are good examples of this approach. DYCL is still fundamentally strong, is above 50 Ema, but after Ultratech entry in this sector it will lost pricing power, I think so. I sold it in good profit. It’s still below my sell price. Aequs has strong story which attracts me. I brought it above 20, 50 Ema, but it lost momentum. So, I sold it with loss. My exit rules help me a lot. Let’s see what happens in Aequs. Previously I sold Kirloskar pneumatic at around 1800 when it breaks down 50 Ema, now it’s trading at 719. HDFC AMC is also trading far below my exit price. Recently sold ICICI Bank when it breaks 50 Ema.

• Winners: I am also trying to let winners run instead of booking small profits. Macpower, Rishabh, Ajanta Pharma and Shilpa are good examples where staying with the position worked in my favour. Currently winner are greater than looser in my portfolio (8 winner, 2 looser).

• Exited stocks: One thing I have noticed is that after exiting, I don’t feel the same pressure to re-enter immediately. Earlier, I would often sell and then regret it when the stock bounced. Now the thesis + 50 EMA gives me a predefined framework for deciding whether a stock deserves another entry.

It is still a very small sample size, so I don’t want to claim that the strategy has been proven. I would rather track these parameters for another few years and then compare trade frequency, portfolio churn, win rate, average winner vs average loser, and performance of exited stocks.

The biggest improvement so far is probably not the returns — it is that I finally have a repeatable process instead of making every decision independently.

6 Likes

Just to add the point that the current price of ~719 is after stock split last month.

2 Likes

Thank you for correct me. I have not noticed it when I reply. Actually it was out of my radar after my selling. I should not ignore the event. Extremely sorry for that. But before split it was far below my selling price. Anyhow, thank you again.

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Going through your thread, it tells me your approach resonates a lot with mine, though I pay more attention to technicals these days.

Few of my questions are

  1. You said you exit a position if it falls below 50 DMA; then I assume you will be buying above 50 DMA only (maybe 20-30%). Let’s say the trade goes against you; when do you exit? Any stop-loss rule here, or do you wait for the price to fall to 50 DMA? basically I want to know your entry rule. (I usually buy when 10 and 20 are entangled and are near 50DMA so that 50DMA acts as a stop loss for me and I enter when either 10 crosses 20 or 50 with a good candle and heavy volume).
  2. If after entering the price doesn’t go up nor does it fall, then how long do you hold it before exiting to rotate capital in another stock with better momentum?

Thank you

1 Like

​Hi @mzambare, thanks for your kind words and thoughtful questions. Our approaches definitely share a similar wavelength!

​To answer your questions based on how I manage my portfolio:

  • ​1. Entry Rules & Managing Trades That Go Against Me:

    • ​I don’t use a rigid percentage-based stop loss. Instead, my final exit rule is strictly when a stock falls below the 50 EMA (or DMA).

    • ​My entry sweet spot is usually adding near the 20 EMA, and sometimes near the 9 EMA or 50 EMA. For extended stocks, I generally look for a pullback of roughly 15% to 20% below their 52-week high, believing quality businesses rarely correct much deeper than that without structural issues.

    • ​If I buy near the 50 EMA, the risk is minimal. If I buy closer to the highs or near the 9 EMA, the 20 EMA acts as my first line of defense or concern. If a trade goes against me immediately or fundamentals deteriorate (like my recent exit in DYCL when pricing power shifted), I exit without wait for the 50 EMA . Regarding pullback entry, 50 Ema exit line comes fast if trade goes against me. If I bought near the top, I trust that quality compounders will eventually make new highs, but I won’t hesitate to exit if the trend breaks down completely.

    • One observation, my 9/20/near high entry performed better than 50 Ema entry.

    • ​2. Holding Period for Stagnant Stocks & Capital Rotation:

      • ​I prefer simplicity and patience over constant tweaking. If a stock neither rallies nor drops below the 50 EMA for a long time, I simply hold it until a better opportunity comes along or the trend breaks.

      • ​While I know many mentors advocate rotating capital if a stock goes sideways for a few months to avoid opportunity cost, I tend to stick strictly to my simple 50 EMA rule rather than forcing short-term time limits. For example, I held ICICI Bank and Chola as stable compounders for a long time, eventually exiting with modest gains only when they finally broke their 50 EMA support.

      .​Keeping things simple helps me avoid emotional decision-making. Hope this helps!

2 Likes

Thanks for info.. I have a question and I need your inputs

Category 50EMA 20EMA 10 EMA
A 25% 10% 5%
B 10% 5% 2%
C 5% 3% 5%
D 10% -5% -3%
E -5% -3% -3%

What will be the strategy in all cases above …

I feel that if a stock is purchased just around 50EMA, then stop loss chances are very high - and If they are very much away - chances of loss are higher.. So my dilema is how to balance both..

1 Like

Went through your journey and have a basic question

How are you doing on realized profits/losses for stocks.

My learning says MF are better in long run and am shifting my portfolio mostly to MFs and intend to limit direct stocks to less than 10 percent of portfolio

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Hi @girishsanghavi, good question.

Buying near the 50 EMA means a small loss but more whipsaws. Buying far above means fewer stops but a bigger loss. I don’t try to solve this with the entry price. I solve it with position size.

Position size = amount I’m willing to lose ÷ distance to the 50 EMA.

Example: say my portfolio is ₹1,00,000 and I risk 1% (₹1,000) per trade.

If the stock is 10% above its 50 EMA, I buy about ₹10,000. If the 50 EMA breaks, I lose about ₹1,000.

If the stock is 25% above its 50 EMA, I buy only about ₹4,000. If the 50 EMA breaks, I still lose about ₹1,000.

If the stock is 5% above its 50 EMA, the formula gives ₹20,000, but I cap it at ₹15,000.

So a stock far above the 50 EMA gets a small position and one close to it gets a bigger one, but a stop-out costs about the same either way.

Entry zones:

5-10% above the 50 EMA, near the 9/20 EMA: my sweet spot, normal size.

20-25% or more above: I wait for a pullback, or take a ⅓ starter.

Above the 50 EMA but below the 20 and 10 EMA: half-size starter, only if the thesis is intact.

Below the 50 EMA: no entry.

Conviction: when my conviction in the thesis and my risk tolerance are both high, I allow a higher weight. I still cap any single stock so one wrong call can’t hurt the whole portfolio.

Exit rules (two recent refinements, still early and a small sample):

A close below the 50 EMA is my exit signal. I now wait one more day for a reclaim, and if it hasn’t reclaimed by the second close, I exit. Shilpa, QPower and Macpower reclaimed recently, but the real test will be the stocks that don’t.

If the broader market is sharply down (for me, Nifty down about 2% or more), I don’t sell on that day’s break and I re-check after it stabilises. I learnt this from my DP Abhushan exit.

If a stock is still below the 50 EMA after the grace period, or is down more than my set limit from entry, I exit regardless of the market.

I’ll track how these rules perform over time. My 9/20/near-high entries have done better than 50 EMA entries so far, but it’s too early to call it proven.

Hi @amitvohra, here are my stock results under my current framework. They cover about six months (April to October) and aren’t annualized.

Win rate: 11 of 13 exits were profitable, about 85%

Best exit: Macpower, about +56%. After re-entry I still hold it with profit above 100%. Worst exit: Aequs, about -13%. Another is 3.5%.

My realized profits and losses come from my exit rules (50 EMA), which I force myself to follow. My unrealized profits are much larger than my realized ones, because I let winners run instead of booking small gains. My open positions are up with decent %. Still no of winners are greater than no of losers.

I’m not claiming it’s proven. The period is short, the sample is small, and a few big winners drive much of the result, so I don’t expect every pick to behave like that. For me the real gain is a repeatable process: cut losses at the 50 EMA and let winners run. I’ll track win rate, average winner vs average loser, and exited-stock performance for a few years.

On MFs, I agree they’re the better core. I’m treating direct stocks as a separate experiment and will compare them against my MF returns over time. If stocks don’t beat them after costs, taxes and effort, I’ll shift more to MFs, as you’re doing.