What is your view on NSE unlisted share. Please share ur knowledge,it will be very helpful.thanks
Our markets have been digesting multiple walls of worries. This has been going on since past many months. There have been multiple negative newsflows, and still we are where we are.
If you look at broader markets, a lot of stocks have started hitting multi year and all time highs. We have had a correction in broader markets since September 2024, so enough time has been spent in corrective mode.
The next trigger of positive note could be some kind of US India trade deal. Its anybodyâs guess when that happens.
Personally I remain bullish on the overall markets.
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Thankyou sir for your excellent pick HBl engineering.From last two years it has gone up morethan 10 times.Sir what where your thoughts when you first bought HBl engineering.
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HBL first came to my notice when the thread on the company was started by @Anant some time in May 2022. (HBL Power: Signs of change). The thread was full of most of the relevant details about the company and the investment triggers associated with it. It was clear after reading the company thread that this was a company that was undergoing transformation, and a lot of positive triggers were lined up.
Next came the techno funda picture. Stock price had hit an all time high of 76.50 back in Jan 2018, and post that in the small and midcap carnage that lasted nearly 2 years till Covid, it hit a low of 9.30 in March 2020 during Covid market crash. It started rallying post that and broke out of previous all time highs of 76.50 in February 2022, in the process forming a nice multi month rounding structure. Stock price spent many months around this breakout levels before moving strongly in June 2023 and since then has been in a strong uptrend.
The main clincher for me was the detailed write up that helped me understand the business and its associated triggers, the annual report with all the relevant details, and the techno funda picture at that time.. Stock price coming out of a nice rounding structure and clearing all time highs, ( or sometimes in other cases multiyear or 52 weeks highs) along with clear triggers lined up was a perfect set up for anyone practicing techno funda approach to investing.
Besides above factors, some very important books I would recommend for anyone interested would be One up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch (to teach the basics and art of investment) , How to make money in stocks by William O Neil ( bhagwad gita for techno funda investing) , and The Next Apple by Ivayly Ivanov. (very similar to O Neil book but they have taken few important learnings from the book and emphasised the importance on focussing on stocks clearing all time high, multi year highs and 52 week highs. There will be lots of stocks hitting these highs if markets are coming out of bear markets and turning bullish. But the next apple gives important pointers on which among these stocks to focus on. )
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Thankyou Hitesh Ji, for this wonderful primer with a handful of gold nuggets. You will enjoy David Gardnerâs Rule Beaker Investing.
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Sir, This is really goldmine. Can you also share some other stocks in your list which I can study. Or, have similar set up like HBL or may become HBL in future 2-3 years.
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In the world of investing, the biggest problem is trying to find the next Eicher Motors,The Next HDFC Bank, The next BSE, ,The next HBL, The issue is we canât stay in a stock with borrowed conviction. It would be far more better if we try to work on the next couple of business instead of trying to find the next HBL Engineering Ltd. I am damn sure ,the conviction comes only when we do enough research ourselves and understand a company and the stick with it even during thin times.
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Hitesh Bhai. Grateful to you for bringing up âThe Next Appleâ again. Last I came across it here, I went looking for it. Added it to e-books cart, waiting for print edition to be available. This time I bought the e-book. Read. Was Hooked all through. A Very Absorbing and brilliant book. Entirely successful at what it sets out to teach, Immense learning for me. Great clarity, internally consistent and precise material. Thank you. I am curious where you learnt of it. It is not on the regular beat. You are the only person I heard of it from.
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Yes. Absolutely true. I also heard about it for the first time here.
My 2 cents about HBL story is even if one had identified it at double digit price - the main question is did this 10 bagger really change your life ? Only if you had given it adequate allocation. A 10 bagger stock means nothing if you did not put adequate amount of allocation so that your whole portfolio goes to a different level when it sucessdully plays out. I think the real skill HIteshbhai has taught us is to identify those opprtunities which deserves an assymetrical amount of allocation as and when the story unfolds . Skill of allocation is as important ( if not more important ) then skill of stock picking. This is something one has to learn with your own experience and gut feeling.
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The next apple book is basically a book that teaches you how to buy high and sell higher. Basic premise is that if a stock starts trading at 52 week highs, or multi year highs, or all time highs, then it usually does so for a reason. (unless it is bid higher solely based on narrative, or some kind of operator action. )
Amongst all the 52 week, or multi year or all time high breakouts, the most suitable for investment are those where fundamentals support the charts. Many a times when a stock clears all time highs, after many years, it only does so based on promises of a bright future. Current numbers may not be too exciting. Or there may be only a quarter or two of good earnings behind it and optically stock might look expensive. Those are the situations when we need to dig deeper and try to figure out the investment triggers lined up, by all available information sources.
We are coming out of a prolonged bear market for the overall broader market. This is the kind of situation where a lot of stocks will be making important breakouts, and provide future winners.
Idea here should be to start filtering out stocks and try to find winners. (rather than ask for spoon feeding with questions like âwhat do you think about so and so company, or which do you think is going to be the next big winner?â or something similar. We need to learn the method rather than ask for spoonfeeding.
And as mentioned so well about importance of proper allocation to your best ideas by @Birsha_Haldar , identifying a good company is only half the job done. Other and often more important aspect is to judge how much to allocate to that particular company. Conviction based on own research is very important here, because often stock prices correct 10-15-20% post your buying, and borrowed conviction does not help in these situations.
To give an example of HBL it hit levels of 700 plus in August 2024, then went down to 515 in Oct and Nov 2024, and then again hit 700 plus in Dec 2024 , and again declined to levels of 405 in March 2025. Digesting these kind of moves with allocations exceeding 20-25% of portfolio is a tough ask, and needs a huge amount of conviction and temperament. Its often a learning experience riding these roller coaster moves, and comes with experience, observation and time in the market. Once you have ridden a big winner with huge allocation, that experience helps in future in similar situations.
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Please do not post soft copies of any books on this thread, or on Valuepickr as we do not want copyrights issues plaguing us.
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Your allocation on HBL will probably be more than 35%, would like to know your strategy on re-allocation. Would you reduce your stake in HBL and move to other players?
Question is to understand your mindset on capital allocation.
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When you get it right in one of your highest allocated stocks, the idea has to be to try to ride the uptrend as much as possible. In the kind of markets we have been, its not too easy to spot stocks that turn out to be big winners. So if you get it right it makes sense to ride it.
Fundamentally a lot of work has been done on HBL VP thread including projections etc. Technically stock appears strong.
At some point of time, some kind of decision related to trimming/exiting the position will have to be taken. I would like to base that on some kind of technical topping formation, so I still remain in the hold mode. Plus you would want to be on the lookout for another stock or a group of stocks to buy to replace the stake you have sold. That again is an exercise in itself.
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Hiteshji, I think this is the toughest of all exercise to find a replacement for one of the highest initial allocations bet which worked really well for you. It would require immense character, skills, experience & maturity to get a replacement every few years which does not result in capital erosion of what was already achieved.
Do you usually divide the proceeds once sold into few concentrated bets for better risk management (although as much as we know you if you find the right company, right valuation, right technicals you would go all out in a single one). Also, do you top up your debt part (or maybe even real estate contribution) as a percentage of this proceed (I mean any other asset class to diversify & preserve)?
Wanted to understand how you preserve what you already made and while rotating ensure selling and buying next decisions do not cause either bigger stagnation or worse capital loss⌠Thanks!
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Once you exit a big winner with very high allocation, the next step is slightly arduous. Finding the next winner is sometimes possible, if you are lucky, but otherwise its a process which takes time and efforts.
If I donât find something that deserves high allocations at the beginning, what I have found useful is to have a few stocks (max 5 stocks) starting position and take things from there. The best hunting grounds for these kind of stocks list is to have a look at the sectors that are showing strength. Currently I find sectors like Financials, PSUs, PSU banks, Auto, Defense etc interesting hunting grounds.
Once I have my list and starter positions, I then monitor how the fundamental and technical momentum starts developing in these. If the list is made with due care, atleast a couple of these stocks will announce themselves with the requisite characteristics, and then it becomes easy to scale up positions.
Getting stocks worthy of high allocations right from the beginning does not happen too regularly for me. I have known folks get it right quite regularly, so its possible (and now thatâ's become the aspirational target) . Maybe once every year or two these kind of situations develop and then it involves a lot of digging, before taking the big leap.
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hi hiteshbhai,
please share view technical & fundamental on latent view analytics ltd,sales & profit are growing gradually,one can buy at current level ?
SEBI guidelines restrict answers to company specific views on charts.. Fundamentally I dont follow the company.
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@Hiteshji ⌠In which situations would you consider exiting or trimming ? In case of HBL, the management threw a cold bucket of water over any sort of hype .In any case market is bearish on stocks with government as client ( E.g . pump stocks,smart meter stocks,JJM related stocks) . Now since the management has pointed to the result as exception and has not raised the guidance (budget as per their terminology)for the year ,markets seem to be ignoring the result and next 2 years prospects and already seem to be looking post 27 as if there would be no Kavach anymore .So how would you handle this if the bearishness continues ? How to get the conviction that the stock price will rise again ?
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My view ,When the management called the recent quarter âexceptional,â they didnât mean that growth tapers off after 2027âthey only meant that one quarterâs execution cannot be treated as the new normal.
The actual Indian Railways mandate is~36,000 km of Kavach deployment by 2028. From multiple replies given in parliament the railway ministry told that only less than 3000 km are installed
Beyond that, upgrades, high-density corridors, and retrofits continue well into the 2030s.
HBLâs earnings story does not depend solely on Kavach. The company is undergoing a structural shift toward multiple high-margin, multi-year businesses:
Electronic fuses (40â45% EBITDA margin) scaling from FY27
Submarine + torpedo + missile batteries with long defence cycles
Marine systems and export defence orders
Pure-lead telecom/data-centre batteries
Li-ion packs and EV drive-train electronics
Railway electronics beyond Kavach (IPS, TMS, data loggers)
Independent research estimates (Trinetra Asset Managers) project PAT of âš624 Cr (FY26), âš832 Cr (FY27), and âš1,006 Cr (FY28)âand these numbers are not dependent on Kavach alone. In fact, margins improve as the defence-electronics mix rises.(This report was released before the q2 results )
So even if Kavach becomes lumpy or moderates, HBL has built multiple profit engines capable of delivering âš800â1,000 Cr annual PAT comfortably. This gives visibility well beyond 2027, supported by long-cycle defence programs, export orders, and grid/telecom backup markets.
In short, the market may be reacting to near-term management caution, but the long-term story hasnât changed:
Visibility does not end in FY27
Kavach is only one part of the thesis
Defence + marine + electronics can sustain or even enhance profitability
FY26âFY30 earnings runway remains strong and multi-dimensional
Investor conviction should come from the diversified high-margin portfoli.
Just my views.Wating for Hitetesh bhaiâs wisdom
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