hello hitesh bhai ,
What are your views on balkrishna industries ?
It has fallen very much after making ATH of 2800 …
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Hello Hitesh Bhai, could please suggest 2 wheeler EV stocks that you feel are worth looking out for?
Certainly not Hitesh Bhai,
Will add my views, Hero Motocorp seems to be near some earning trigger and decent valuations. You may dig into it ! Also its better that you pick Proxy Industries like Suspension which cater to the whole industry and not just a manufacturer ( Ex Shivalik Bimetals )
All the best !
Dear Hiteshbhai, Your guidance for the thought process of an equity investor in this forum is priceless and we are forever indebted for the same. Even I exited Swiss Glass at 450 Rs and watched in Regret. My buying decision was solely on the basis of “buying Rupee at 50 paise” and that has rewarded for sure but not as much as it should have. Post this experience i have started a new strategy of exiting where I take some sizeable profit and leave rest of the profit in the stock forever. Just to detach myself emotionally from the stock!
On similar buying strategy grounds, I have entered in"IVP ltd", again with the idea of “Rupee for 50 paise”! Interestingly company is turning around its bottomline by diversification too, an added advantage! May I request you to go through this opportunity and let us know if it is worthwhile!
Hello Sir,
Can you please share your views on growth & valuations aspects of mid and small IT companies like Mphasis , Coforge , Happiest Minds & LTTS.
Regards & Thanks !!
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I think if one is buying nifty etf, then its better to go in an SIP mode rather than time the market. Or else buy on a regular basis during a downswing over a peiod of time.
Anyone who provides you with exact levels at which to add stocks or nifty or any other traded instrument whose prices go up and down is more than likely to be bluffing. No one has exact idea about where the markets are headed.
At the most we use technical patterns to project pattern targets and hope we are right. (and for some enthusiastic folks to continue to brag about getting it right. 
)
According to my view as long was we are below the huge gap down of 16700-17k, we are in a downdraft. From where and when this downmove is going to resolve, is anybody’s guess.
In my view for retail investors who can educate themselves its a much better idea to invest in good companies as there are higher chances of making decent money as compared to plain vanilla index investing. It does take some effort and some luck, but if we continue to be persistent about it and know what we are doing, we have higher chances of success.
@xarthak Two wheeler EV plays consist of two subsets. Namely the vehicle manufacturers and the ancillary plays. I think most big names in 2 wheeler space are getting into EV space one way or the other. Among auto ancillaries, one will have to do deep down research to figure out where the odds of success lie. Personally I think there are much more sure shot winners out there in other sectors and segments where one can find good companies at decent valuations after the recent round of correction. I am usually not the kind of investor who is too keen or too successful in catching the next big theme.
@hitusohi1 I dont track balkrishna inds.
@vikrantmehta888 I dont track IVP.
Another request. Please do not send me personal messages seeking investment advice or any other issues on VP. We (myself and other regular VP guys who provide their views based on their interest and expertise) tend to address everything possible on this forum if the right questions are asked in the right thread.
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Hi Hitesh bhai, just tying to dig into and understand this aspect a little more.
Relaxo (going from an also ran to sector leader in terms of volumes)
Astral (the shift to/from PVC/CPVC)
Can Fin (change in management and a shift in customer mindset wrt home loans, led to high growth, I suppose?)
Wouldn’t you classify some of your past investments above, as catching some sort of a wave early and riding it as long as the theme lasted?
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@hitesh2710 Sir
I personally love your thread a lot and you are a very respected VP member who shares a lot of knowledge very frequently. Kindly request you to stop answering any queries which are asked, without being presented along with the deep dive they themselves might have done. The thread is getting huge and a lot is filled with such single line questions.
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Canfin was one of my most successful investments. I think I made nearly 12 times in 2-3 years. There the thought process initially was huge undervaluation. The book value was around 225, stock price was available at 150, and the company was showing very decent growth in the concerned period. Due to vagaries of the market at that time, (2013-2014) I was even able to buy it around 115 on declines. Net NPA was nil. So my initial logic was that it should atleast quote close to book value and I was looking around for a cool 50%.
Things really changed post election outcome of 2014 when BJP was elected. There was an absolute disarray in the general administration and financial situation in the time period before 2014. Once Modi came to power, things changed dramatically, mainly the mood of the markets. I think markets went up a lot in the run up to election outcome and during that time these kind of neglected stocks also went up. I remember pitching Canfin to an investor friend at that time and one of my mental models related to the company was “change in promoters”. Although the govt indirectly through canara bank held the company, the new govt under BJP would not have the taint and lethargy that was earlier attributed to the earlier govt and that was the logic of change in promoter mindset. The investment rationale in the company changed from undervaluation to change in promoters to growth and all the while market fancy kept going up for the company.
Astral story is two pronged. My initial logic was about balance sheet clean up. I think astral was affected on and off by forex losses ( or was it inventory losses? ) and management took a conscious call to address the issue and that was the first trigger to invest. Next came the CPVC thing and subsequently the shift from GI pipes to PVC and CPVC pipes.
Relaxo was something I missed, even though I tracked it.
Now that I look back, most of the big winners for me began as value buys that eventually turned out to be growth stocks. There were often other models too but the big majority of winners came from the former logic.
@vibhor_vaish Good suggestion. And worth considering. I usually answer in details only in companies I track/am invested in, but your observation is right. Those who ask questions should atleast try to do some digging on their own before asking questions about a company in a one or two liner.
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Hello Hitesh Bhai,
I Thank You for the Can-fin story in 2014. Based on your assessment, I bought it initially and made good money. Still hold some shares.
Just another query, is there a technical website where I can view the charts and key technical parameter of my watchlist/multiple stocks on daily basis without looking up those individually for each company.
Thanks
Nikhil
what are your views on orient cement now? How should one play it now considering the increase in crude prices will effect margins of all cement companies and there is a huge Fii shareholding ,which have been huge sellers.
How should one do in a situation like this I am long term investor had a target of 200 plus ,but the uncertainty and the previous low being broken ,i am having second thoughts.
Thanks
Hitesh bhai I have a question how many company concalls you might be listening to in a month / quarter on average.
How do you decide to dig deeper on particular companies as daily we come across many companies expected to do well
Help us with your process about the same
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Orient cement remains one of the more undervalued stocks in the cement pack. But in the near term it and most other cement companies are going to face strong input cost pressures and hence margins might be affected. Because of cheap valuations and since it becomes more cheaper on declines, the pure value guys would be interested at some point of time. On charts it had formed double top at 184-185 and breakdown was below 150-155 with targets of 120-125 which were duly achieved in recent carnage. I think there could be some consolidation to digest the possibility of margin compression and post that once things improve on raw material and power and fuel front, it could start looking up.
@nikhil090 I don’t use any website for checking charts of companies I track. So not much idea about where to look for them. I have heard friends praising tradingview. Even screener tends to give a very good quick view on most charts though not too many indicators. (I give a lot of importance to the visual structure of charts rather than indicators and hence find screener extremely useful in view of easy usability.
@abhijain I dont track any US stocks or the US markets in details. And even in our Indian market where I invest and track, I don’t look too closely at index etfs. The day I feel I have to resort to index investing in comparision to my own stock picking and allocation strategy, I would rather retire and do farming full time.
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I do not have any specific schedule for listening to X number of concalls per month or quarter. Most of the times I get more active during results season when I tend to listen to maybe one or two concalls per day. Once this phase gets over, this kind of work becomes more sporadic and I take things slowly. During the latter times, listening to concalls is based on some stock ideas I am working on.
Many a times I spot very good chart patterns in good companies, and in these cases I try to dig deeper and in doing so, end up listening to concalls, or reading up annual reports and presentations.
Finding companies to dig deeper is a function of the risk reward, pedigree of the business, and comfort about management. Plus any changes in business model, or changes in promoters or some other factor which can materially affect the company in question. Some parameters vary from company to company, but they should be glaringly important and hence catch our attention immediately.
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Hi Hitesh bhai,
Just wondering if you still track Usha Martin, as the stock has crossed its 52 week high after a long consolidation, technically according to you what should be the new price targets.
Fundamentally the metal sector has tailwinds plus Usha Martin being a metal processor and exporter they also operate in Europe as well.
Thanks and regards,
Vishal
Usha Martin was undergoing tight consolidation between 80-102 since past many weeks. Today it gave a decisive breakout above 102 with big volumes and stock price closed at 107. Above 106.9 it has given a crucial 14 year high breakout. Next major port of call on upside is 154 which is its all time high. We need to see if and when it is achieved.
I have put up a weekly chart of Usha martin with the various levels I mentioned above marked. Also marked is a flag like (more like pennant, but for all practical purpose, one can use the term interchangeably) tight consolidation between 80-102 for nearly 5 months. This tight consolidation and subsequent breakout is significant because during these five months we saw both frothy euphoria and deep despair and still stock price remained within that range, only to breakout today. The flag extends from 50 to 100 (figures rounded off for ease of calculations) and breakout provides target of 150 which again is close to all time highs.
These kind of tight consolidations in good techno funda set ups are the ones I love and usually end up betting hard on. The most imporant signal of strength for me came in last few weeks when stock prices refused to breach previous lows of 80 and rebounded. It did not go much beyond 20% of its previous swing high. (This is a rough cut working level I have put in my mind to assess the strength or resilience of stocks during sharp market corrections. Stocks correcting less than 20% from swing highs often take less time to regain the peaks as compared to those that have corrected more than 30 or 50% from peaks. There will be exceptions to this but we need to have atleast some working hypothesis to filter strong stocks and the latter is one of them for me. )
disc: I remain invested in the company barring few trading transactions.
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Hitesh Bhai
How do you see QSR companies. Jubilant food is on a continues down trend and has fallen by more than 12% today. How do you see this on technofunda
hi hitesh bhai, can you please throw some light on prospects of schaeffler india ?? the auto sales are drastically affected due to shortage of semi conductors, how can shaeffler can make money if there are less sales. i dont get the concept behind the strength the stock is showing currently. almost at all time high.
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Jubilant foodworks went below its sacrosanct 200 dema on 25 Jan 2022 and since then has not managed to go above it. That does indicate significant weakness.
Even before that if you see the move of the stock price from 3000 levels in July 2021 to 4500 in Oct 2021, it went up 50% within only 3 months. For a company of its size, a large cap, its a significant move and smacks of froth. The fall from 4500 to 3000 has been equally sharp, looking like a mountain summit. When stocks do these kinds of moves within a short period of time, most often it does indicate froth and an impending top. Similar thing happened in a lot of high quality stocks.
Another aspect to look at is the continuous FII selling since past many months in the general markets overall. And FIIs hold 39% (as per screener) in Jubilant foodworks. Valuations too at nearly 90-100 PE seem expensive even after the fall.
The SIP kind of guys who keep buying dips on each fall will keep buying till their coffers get empty, but beyond that I see buying would emerge only once it becomes very attractive on valuations basis.
Personally I would tend to avoid buying till I see the fall being arrested and some kind of stability emerging in the stock price.
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@hitesh2710 - hello hitesh sir. First of all i need to thank you for openly sharing your views to this big community and helping them take rational decision. I have been silent reader so far and has been amazed by the depth of knowledge you have.
Sometime back i had shared my opinion on hdfc group and why i fell that group has become a big fat elephant and why will it take time to be more agile.
My thought process is to accumlate the stocks of selected few like infy, tcs, tata motors, asian paints and not to diversify too much but on other hands there are tons of other good companies which can further give you handsome returns like Astral, gland pharma, divis lab, deepak nitrite, olectra greentech, pidilite and so on…
Sir, do you have any thoughts on the strategy mentioned along with the list of stocks mentioned