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Hi Hitesh bhai,
Not sure if you follow any of the following stocks: Neuland labs, sequent scientific, or Hikal
But if you do, would like to know your views on these stocks from a 3-5 year perspective at CMP, especially after a healthy correction in the past few months in each of these
Hello Hitesh Sir,
How should one think about selling huge winners in their portfolio. I am talking of stocks which are insanely expensive now and at prices that the investor would not want to average up.
Case in point- Dmart was my biggest position since sometime- now it’s trading at valuations that I am not able to justify holding onto. Pls guide from your experience.
Thanks.
Well in my opinion if i have less conviction on any stock, i would take out my investment and leave the remaining as free float after a rally
But as per Elliott wave and time analysis Tata Motors stock is destined to touch 660-680. Lets wait and watch.
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Conventional wisdom tells us not to sell our winners. So there might be a case for holding on to winners irrespective of valuations.
But if the most bullish projections from our side does not show too much upside in stock price, say for next 2-3 years, then it makes sense to atleast trim if not sell the position altogether.
The other aspect is if there is another better idea that ticks a lot of boxes in terms of investment merits, then it makes sense to switch or make a partial exit and switch.
But putting theory into practice is a difficult thing. Things are not black and white most of the times. So some amount of introspection and innovation is often needed while handling a portfolio.
In case of dmart, the longevity of the business looks like a given, but one factor to look out for is how competitors are faring. Plus it seems a cornered stock with most of the shares held by promoters and very strong hands.
@Ansh_Gupta I don’t track any of the stocks you mentioned.
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Hi Hitesh Ji …
Just wanted to know if u r holding Lux Industries and if yes … Whats ur current views on the same ???
Actually, I wanted to build a small position in the same. Thought it would be great to know ur views on Lux Industries.
Thanks
Ranvir Dehal
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Hello Hitesh sir,
Recently I read an article on steel mint that China is cutting down Farrow silicon Production due to their Environmental policy. And supply from Bhutan is also inconsistent.
How do you see this for Maithanalloy.
Maithan alloys is in a sweet spot due to the run up in its product prices. Only thing to figure out is the state of its raw materials. Personally I think Maithan alloys stock should do well. I dont own it currently, having held it in the past.
@ranvir I do not track Lux inds too closely. @zygo23554 could be the right person to ask about it.
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hello hitesh sir , hope you doing well, are you still tracking thangamayil jewellary, seems interesting , locdown open, majority vaccinted, lots of marriages coming thanks in advance .
Hello Hitesh sir, what was your trigger point to exit the Laurus? Since you already existed few weeks back, I may be wrong but bearish head and shoulders may not be the reason.
Anything specific technical pattern you observed or there was a better opportunity. Looking forward for your kind response.
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In case of Laurus, June qtr results were a bit of a disappointment for me. One can argue that the shipping imbroglio resulted in sales being affected and so on … But in most concalls of export focussed companies, managements had no clue when this shipping issue was going to get resolved. Plus the raw material prices of KSMs were going up. So some negatives were appearing on the horizon.
And to top it, the market mood in the counter was quite frothy with stock price showing crazy volumes and moves. Usually when we see parabolic kind of moves where stock prices rise in a disproportionate way to fundamentals, it signifies that a top may be near. I sold out near 640 kind of levels after which I think it went up to touch 700 briefly and even after that there were quite a few to and fro moves.
And once a sector in fancy loses its shine, its often punished way beyond what fundamentals warrant.
This usually happens because during the first wave of fall like we have, there are a lot of guys who think they know a lot about the company who keep holding or even buying more. Once a quarter or two of de growth happens, these guys will join the bandwagon in blaming the management or environment or govt or whoever is in any way responsible for slide in company’s fundamentals. And then they too will come in and throw in the towel. Once these last bulls standing throw in the towel usually stock price goes close to a bottom, but there too it tends to consolidate for a long time before making any sort of comeback.
And all this while, another sector or sectors has attained the most favoured sector status and the crowd is running after that sector. So there is no one to buy the fallen angel even though valuations appear cheap. PE derating is a very painful process for long term shareholders. This is a phenomenon often recognised in hindsight.
@VIMAL_AGRAWAL I do not track thangamayil now.
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Thanks hitesh sir for the explanation on laurus labs, I want to know in which scenario the beaten down stocks will start moving to new highs? The management sounds bullish on every other concall but how can we identify where and when should we enter a counter like laurus labs.
Thanks in advance
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Hello hitesh sir ,
What is your view on Relaxo footwear for long term ? If you tracking relaxo then please give your view
thanks
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Any thoughts on Mangalam Organics?
Hello Hitesh Sir
How do you see good quality IPOs eg policybazaar , nykaa , tatwa chintan , clean science etc ( or say profit making business IPOs as well) , do you invest or completely ignore( due to extreme high valuations) or play techno funda bets ? Are their any parameters for certain IPOs do play out good in long run and any suggestion how small retail investors like us should play it out or simply ignore as valuations is the biggest concern here.
( Just to mention im referring to investing after the listing )
Thank you Hitesh sir for sharing your view. I think we new investors need to learn on building conviction and stick to it and not to get too carried away with emotions. Also see how we can connect the dots.
It is amazing how you respond to each and every query. Thank you sir.
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Hi Hitesh bhai,
I have been reading your posts and they have helped me understand a lot about 52 week highs and all time highs. Businesses which are doing something new or changing the way they do business take them to new highs.
As I am trying to understand chart patterns I had a technical query on Chambal fertilisers, the stock hit an all time high of 451 on Oct 08, and then came down to sharply 315 levels due to recent correction. Again the stock seems to have resumed its upward journey. I have entered recently at 330 levels. According to you what would be the levels to watch out for and technically and can it go to all time highs again according to the charts.
Fundamentally the sector has tail winds, as DBT has been introduced and backlog of pending subsidy is being cleared gradually. Plus Chambal Fert has cleared a lot of debt and new plant is running well and is generating revenue and profits.
Regards,
Vishal.
These days most IPOs that come into the market are more than priced to perfection. But the market in its exuberance tends to take the prices to even higher levels. But over the medium to long term once a few quarters of results are out, the men are seperated from the boys. Usually the conventional wisdom is to look or invest into IPO that come during bear markets. Most of the bull market IPOs are fully or overpriced.
Fundamentally its often difficult to take a call on companies with short history. And in some cases the numbers are often dressed up for the IPO to sail through with flying colors.
The one thing I found very interesting in playing IPO after listing is to look at the charts for a few days/weeks and watch out for some basing pattern. Usually immediately post IPO there is a lot of froth and stock prices are taken to unsustainable levels. And then inevitably they end up correcting to various degrees. Once these stocks correct or consolidate and then cross their post IPO highs, its time to look at them. I have seen a lot of such patterns play out in the recent past. This usually happens because once the post IPO froth is out of the way, the company has to have something really good going for it, or atleast the perception in markets has to be good, and only then will the stock price will cross its post listing highs.
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I think one thing regarding the 52 week/all time high theory needs to be spelled out clearly. The high that we are talking about being taken out has to be a major top. Say a 52 week high or 2-3-4 year highs crossed for the first time. This should not be confused with a swing top created after the stock price has run up after clearing its 52 week or multi year high.
Just to give you a relevant example, in case of Chambal, the major top we should consider is the April 2018 high of 209. This was first crossed in Dec 2020. The stock price went up to 267, came down again to retest the 209 region and consolidated for a few weeks in the process. After that the stock price went on a strong rally and posted two major swing tops at 349 in August 2021 and 451 in Oct 2021. The kind of run up seen prior to the 451 top was a frothy run up. These kind of ralies usually are difficult to sustain and over time stock prices tend to correct sharply, form a base again and then only they can give strong rally to take out the top of the frothy rally. But this is not the kind of rally we want to play for. Mainly because its hard to come by because a lot of froth needs to be cleared from stock price and hence usually a long consolidation will be needed.
Against that if you want to look at a prime candidate for playing the yearly or multi year high then consider the example of Union bank and other PSU banks like PNB etc which cleared their yearly highs
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