what do you make of the latest results by Hikal ? they have commented on the FX and exceptional payment item for past imports custom duty and interest on the same.
topline too has shrunk QoQ and YoY for the corresponding quarter.
Technically 110-115 range would have provided a good support but the way stock has reacted it could go another 10-15% lower easily.
Would you recommend adding to the existing position or wait for things to get better as valuation wise it isnt too expensive but business prospects and regular FX/financing reconciliation seem to be ailing this.
whats your view and if you would rather use any bounce back to exit for the time being?
since i believe, silver has been almost completing a 6 year old accumulation, i wanted to invest in silver etfs in coming couple of yearsā¦
could you suggest some etfs which could be looked at, i couldnt find any,
would National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL) e-silver might be a way?
and any general advice/ suggestion regarding investing in silver?
besides tepid numbers (especially corp-protecion), exceptional expenses (past customs duties + related interest) took the air out of already low PBT (15.4 cr. out of 25.09 cr.) this besides 92 lac forex related losses (again)! additional one-time customs and forex charges continues to haunt Hikal!! will be interesting to hear why management did not disclose fooding related issues at Mahad and NGT tribunal related water supply issue at Taloja.
waiting to hear from Hitesh Bhai, thanks very much in advance!
Hikal numbers are poor and there is no getting around it. And the stock has been punished in line with the numbers. With these kind of numbers the investors faith tends to get shaken. I expect not much upside from the stock till next quarter numbers or if anticipation is of good numbers then there can be an anticipatory rally.
There can be a bounce once the initial kneejerk selling subsides and one needs to see the contour of the bounce to make a call. The promise of blockbuster FY 22 will of course get some investors with a long term horizon interested. But those with a view on opportunity cost will find it advisable to sell.
This quarter has been a bunch of bad news with the exceptional item coming as a surprise along with the other causes of lower revenues and profits.
I think overall the faith restored since past 4-6 quarters with decent numbers gets shaken with this kind of a quarter. I have read the notes put up on the hikal thread by guys who attended the concall and would like to first listen to the concall myself before taking a call.
Among auto ancillaries I had been watching the price movement of minda inds and was surprised at the resilience it has shown during the auto downturn. As of now the sector has not shown any positive numbers so it remains to be seen when the turnaround happens.
But as usually happens, the stock prices tend to move first and numbers follow later. So I think it might make sense to atleast make a watchlist and keep observing developments in terms of numbers and other data points to take a call on when to get on board. Since past few weeks some frontline stocks like ashok leyland, bajaj auto, maruti etc besides companies like minda inds have shown good upmoves and make for an interesting watchlist. As of now I am on watch only mode.
This is so insightful . Didnt know that stock prices move first and numbers follow later, thought it was the other way round. Thanks so much Hiteshbhai
Do you track future consumer ltd?
Though they have way to ambitious dreams of revenue of 20k cr but still have some decent brands in making and good partnership as well ( for eg. fonterra for dairy products ). Easyday as a brand store is getting popular.
After a huge correction from levels of 70 it has come down to mid 20ās and seems attractive.
Though Iām not very good at financials but they have a huge debt of close to 6kcr.
Hiteshbhai , sorry replying on your behalf,
Their are no silver etf or e silver or silver bonds like gold bonds. I also wonder why no one is looking that avenue including RBI. Till that we are stuck only with physical silver only.
E silver .? Either we buy physical silver or we buy in forward market. See if you buy in physical market u have tp pay making charges (On silver bar of 999)which is around 10% of market price so till 10 % increase and again loss when you sell we donāt get returns. In future market you can Buy and keep position if u are Interested.
One can hold lots like units like etf, in demat modeā¦
Each lot has 100units equivalent to 100gmā¦
But I am yet to know more about this route of investingā¦
Unlike physical buying, there is no 10percent making and transaction charges, while holding via demat route
The space of insurance both life and general look really interesting. While there is lot of information regarding hdfc life, icic pru and icic Lombard, there very little info regarding Cholamandalam Financial holdings which has 40% of ownership nbfc of cholamandalam business and 60% ownership in the general insurance business of Chola.
It has seen a correction for a while really interested but have little info about the company.
They have jv with sumimoto insurance company.
Looks interesting as according to my time here cholamandalam promoters seem that they can be trusted. Only mention I got was from a recent portfolio of fellow member @bimalb Sir.
Also wanted your views on amc business. In the latest interview of saurab Mukherjee, he mentioned regarding amc business unless companies are able to built a moat around the business, the sector may grow but players may not be able to reap the profits. Any view on the above from respect of two listed players hdfc AMC and nippon amc
@hitesh2710,
Are you tracking Neogen Chemicals, company recently IPOd, and stock price is shooting up. I went through their Q1-FY20 CC transcript, latest AR and old numbers and it looks good.
Company is also doubling capacity to be done gradually in Q3/Q4 FY20 and Q3/Q4 FY21, and cautiously guiding for 65% revenue growth, translating to ~25% EPS CAGR from FY19-FY22. Stock is trading at 40 P/E now.
Their tenor and estimation of their addressable market are very optimistic (to the level of claiming they might use even the new capacity at 100% right away), but I do worry about their 1.7 Net Debt/Equity (from latest AR).
Couple of questions, I would love to hear your thought process.
Are you tracking CRAMs & APIs? This story seems to be evolving well as earnings are reflecting in the Quarterly results of Laurus, Granules, syngene, and solara. (Hikal is an exception) Need to watch the upcoming results of other companies. Whatās your view on these?
Whats you view on the recent corporate governance issue in Hikal plant closure disclosure? I feel it is a genuine/unintentional miss and management wouldnāt repeat it in future. Iām invested in Hikal, my average buy price Rs 140, havenāt exit / average out my buy price during this down fall. Confused a bit whether to wait and watch or book loss.
i was wondering why such a big amount of goodwill in the balance sheetā¦!
of the recent purchase they acquired JC Biotech for 500million Rs.
Evoxx Technologies GmbH for 600mn.
but the goodwill amounts stands over 2700mn.
and recently ORBIMED ASIA III MAURITIUS acquired stake from the promoters.
these are biopharma investors, their only investment in india is in this companyā¦
why didnt they buy from the market? what impression does this carry to u?
a similar activity of promoter selling to hdfc amc was seen earlier in 2018
its very strange the promoters sell to institutions, at higher prices then themselves rebuy at lower prices form the market, meanwhile release pledged shares, then agian raise debt at promoter level which dosent come in the bc , the subsidiaries are not audited by their chief auditors, and an intricate network of subsidiariesā¦
from the jb chemical thread i gather you are invested in the scripā¦
although to me, the structure that was forming since 2 plus years, still remains intact, but the 20 weekly moving average has started turning down so late in the trading rangeā¦
this might take time to get resolved technically to be back on track with the trend
the 52 weekly ema and sma both acting as supports as of now
how do u suggest to approach such a scrip while taking positionsā¦??
I tend to stay away from people who chase mindless growth without any eye on profitability. Pantaloon was a case in point and Biyani was the guy involved.
Post selling out of Pantaloon (of course at distress valuations) Kishor Biyani started the Future group and it seems to me to be history repeating itself. I dont track the group too closely but looking at the number of listed entities under the group and the kind of tie ups and what not the group is up to, I tend to get scared by these kind of companies.
For brief durations when markets are buoyant especially for small and midcaps these tend to run hard but usually give up all their gains and more when they start correcting. So if you are invested here, the trick is to get out in time before all hell breaks loose.
In the current market, the insurance sector seems to be the in favour sector. Most of the stocks of the sector are outperforming the indices.
I havent looked at Chola Financial holdings, but once these are perceived to be holding companies, markets tend to attach a huge holding company discount to these names. The NBFC Chola is a good company to be kept in the watchlist.
Advanced enzymes seems to be a case where a lot was promised and little delivered (in response to expectations). And the stock price has reacted accordingly correcting from highs of 475 to the 150s. There are the ocassional bounces but unless the expected numbers start materialising, I dont see too much chances of wealth creation. I dont track it too closely fundamentally so not much idea about its balance sheet issues.
