I dont have too much idea about Marg or its business structure.
It seems to be a reverse multibagger over two years. stock price in sep 2010 was around 240 and currently it is around 52 so something seems to be drastically wrong over there.
how would you grade Granules Vs FDC in terms of business prospects? Reason for asking is that coz Granules is at 100 DMA and I’m thinking of switching my FDC holding (marginal gains) to Granules. Reading both the threads, it does look to me that Granules has more things going for it but it would be nice to know your assessment.
I would always prefer FDC because of its clean balance sheet and presence in the prescription market. cmp seems to be pricing in a no growth scenario and any signs of positive growth could give sharp upmove.
Granules is on a strong growth trajectory but it entails all risks of a company in expansion phase.
Not too sure which would outperform going forward though.
Could you please let me know a company can have anegative book value? How would reserves and surplus turn negative. (I am not from accoutning bkgrnd and hence might be asking a silly question)
Indianivesh guys who cover Shasun pharma have come out with an update and lower target on shasun TP 181. reason being that the API they supply to Vertex of US – for their drug incivek used in heaptitis C – usfda has advised the vertex company to issue black box warning on incivek – which should affect sales of the drug and hence API supplies for incivek from shasun.
Stock already down to around 140-142 levels due to the above effect.
difficult to make a call at cmp. technically the stock has broken out of a very narrow range it was in since past many months that is between 80-96 with huge vols. So I think stock should give good upside.
fundamentally also if the PE deal takes place there could be huge upsides.
so for momentum trading one can go for fdc at cmp of around 97-98 but keep a strong stop loss of 90 odd levels bcos if deal does not work out a lot of fizz will be out.
Max downside seems to be around 10-12% from current levels if deal does not go through.
Now if deal does go through, (no smoke without fire theory) and even if there are 20% chances of that hapenning, then upside could be as high as 50%-100% from current levels.
So if one considers this as a bet, then odds are good.
i agree with your thoughts…downside is limited …good fundamental company has high chances of being taken over at significant premium …and even if the deal does not go through …high chances of market now catching the fancy which attracted the PE firm interested in takeover …
also the saying goes (buy the rumour …sell the news …eg ranbaxy )