ValuePickr Forum

Hitesh portfolio

@pankajpant

I think expecting the management to jack up the shareholding when they knew stock price was going to go up it stretching things a bit. There are some managements who might also be interested in focussing on business rather than these stock market related gimmicks. I fail to understand why after all the information is out why we don’t focus on the business of the company rather than get distracted into unnecessary stuff.

@HIMSHAH Kopran charts are strong… I dont follow the company fundamentally so no idea about its prospects.

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isn’t it too much?

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@ranjan_r

I too was surprised at the apppearance of dr chhava on tv today. Looks like a bit too much exposure in too short a time. I think we need to keep a watch for more such antics from the management.

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Hi hitesh sir,

Thank you so much for your honest guidance. It is extremely useful for novices like me. I think I understand technicals even poorer than fundamentals. Wanted to get your thoughts on something I observed in the laurus labs order book today:


What we can see, is 9 lakh stock units waiting to be sold, while only 70,000 units waiting to be bought. To my untrained mind, this could be a premonition of an impending fall since a lot more people are willing to sell near the higher prices. Is this the right way to think or is there a flaw in this thinking? Would also suggest/request others to add their comments if they have any.

Disc: I am not invested in laurus, and do not intend to right now. But hear about it a lot in the news these days and hence wanted to check it out, technically.

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@sahil_vi

If you want to look at Laurus as an investment candidate, look at the work put up by Donald on laurus thread rather than focus on these intra day buy and sell data and the faulty inferences based on that data. What you have put up can change in a matter of minutes. How much weightage should such things be given?

@Ajjugattu, Please avoid these one liners which add no value to the discussion. If you have to put up anything meaningful even on pledge, put it up on the company thread with relevant data and source of data. Even on gmm thread I saw a lot of garbage being piled up. These kind of posts disturb the smooth flow of reading useful stuff as these one and two liners tend to clutter the threads. On the subject of pledge, i have made myself clear about my views.

If you are interested in a company for purpose of investment, read the thread fully before posting any comments. Most of the times, the concern and query is already addressed earlier. If not, and if you feel your post adds value to the thread, then only add the post.

At valuepickr, we encourage democratic participation from all forum members, new and old. But whatever we put up, whether its a piece of information news or a query, it should be value accretive to you and others. Otherwise it holds no meaning.

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Thanks, hitesh sir. I am reading Donald sir’s collaborators corner Laurus post : Laurus Labs: A much bigger journey ahead? It is extremelty informative. It is just a bit scary to buy a stock which has run up 3x in 4-5 months. Definitely need to dig deeper to build stronger conviction.

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Sahil, I may be talking from the experience of an untrained eye.
Ever since I came across VP, I have been reading a lot (VP threads, ARs, ConCalls, investor presentations). Out of 15+ ConCalls (across sectors) I read (I prefer reading over listening), the bullish tone (of Dr Chava) I found in Laurus Labs is worthy of one’s time to dig further. Laurus Labs seems to be on the strong growth path. Past numbers can be a new base, and they aren’t one off thing.
Senior VP members (especially Hitesh Sir) can correct my views.
Whether management walks the talk or not, only time will tell.

I remember a quote from Lynch, where he mentions that it’s okay to catch a stock even if it has run up. If it has long runway of growth, one can still catch several baggers.

@hitesh2710,
Sir I wanted to extend Sahil’s question and needed your thoughts on that. If one gets enough conviction to invest in a Co, should one depend on technicals to guide way on time to entry? Sahil has pointed to an instance where sells overweigh buys. Should one wait for some signal/chart through technicals which indicate consolidation in CMP before making an entry?
[Thanks to Sahil for bringing this up]

Disc: I have invested 8% of my PF in Laurus Labs in the past 3 weeks. Had to build a lot of conviction because it has already shot up.

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Hi Hitesh bhai,
I too felt similar and remembered your earlier post on mgmt appearing in media . What, according to you should be the trigger to sell?
Many thanks
Disc - Invested

@A_shah

The decision to buy or sell is a multi factorial decision. One cannot rely on a single factor. We have to consider all aspects and put things in perspective and then take a call. Hence the idea should be to look at the complete picture.

The main consideration is deterioration in the growth story. (if in the first place the company has been bought as a growth story. )

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Hi Mr. Hitesh,
What is your opinion on Jagran Prakashan ? The management seems to be very fair to minority investors and is one of the better run traditional newsprint business. A market cap of 1100 crores i believe is very low even if it takes a couple of years to get back to its previous years revenues. Looks like a very solid contra and a dividend yield bet. The management raising 100 crores at around 8.35-8.45 also looks the management is pro-activate in mitigating through this tough times. Surely traditional newsprint business will recover financially more quickly than other businesses such as Airlines and Hotels. Are you tracking the stock at the moment and how do you see this playing it out in 3-4 years time?

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Hi Hitesh bhai,
Thanks for your insightful reply as always .
When the prime reason for which one has invested is growth , one must exit if growth has come down

In the current scenario , many companies in chemical and pharma sector are reporting great earnings due to the ongoing tailwind . However due to lockdown a few chemical companies earnings are affected eg Deepak nitrite, Bharat rasayan
In some cases market gives a long rope considering long term growth potential and stock still moves up while in some other cases stock goes down or moves sideways . Considering that market knows more than us generally (though not always) This is confusing as to how can one make out whether to give the stock a long rope or exit in case factors are temporary but one isnt certain whether Mr market will give it a long rope or not .
Many times it has happened that when one exits , stock rises despite temporary lack of growth and at other times , one is left holding in hope and market derates it or theres a sideways movement . and this happens though growth is temporarily halted
Hitesh bhai, Request your view on clearing this confusion . Many thanks

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Hitesh sir,

In the last one week we have seen companies like Mayur and lupin post bad results and tank , only to subsequently recover the next few days itself…and there have been companies posting good results with good things going for them, who have continued to fall…The book that you recommended Minnervini clearly highlights that results can’t be looked at in isolation and earnings visibility needs to be present

Could you shed some light on How one should one isolate operator play in these kind of situations, especially with packaging films like Poly and cosmo expected to post good results for some time

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Hi Hitesh bhai
1 Kilpest India is into agrochemicals and pesticides. Profit has shown good growth with 5 year CAGR being approx 70 percent and quarterly profit jump by 84 percent. It’s a small microcap and price too has increased considerably following the earnings . Can it be considered at a high price as whether theres still steam left as I have seen a lot of times that small caps seem costlier but theres high possibility of growth due to low size but also get worried after looking post 2017 period where lot of good quality small caps were only doing sideways movement despite good result
2 should one keep switching between large and small caps depending on momentum in favour and investor preference ? As I observed in my very short investment tenure that in 2019 many were bullish on page, titan including me and had written off small caps and now its vice versa with renewed focus on small caps
Request your suggestions and guidance Hitesh bhai and thank you so much for handholding amateur investors as you have always done :pray:

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Hitesh will certainly answer this… I am putting my views about such scripts

Let us list down growth drivers other than Covid for this company. If we can see something which gives a visibility of atleast 3-4 quarters… certainly it qualifies for long term investment.

Contrary to above, if it has only covid as the growth driver, it has uncertainty as everyone is waiting for vaccine & few nations have claimed to be different stages of trial… as soon as we get a successful vaccine , revenue growth for such companies may disappear. If one wants to exercise their luck & have entered at lower levels … they may enjoy the momentum but fresh entry at current levels has huge risk associated. The scrips trading in back to back circuits have additional risk attached to them.

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Can anyone throw light on Nava Bharat Ventures.
In their consolidated cash flow statement there is an allowance of credit loss of Rs156 cr compared to 27 cr last year. Also unrealized foreign exchange loss of Rs43 cr.
Whereas in their notes, figure is 189 cr loss due to adjustments on account of foreign currency fluctuations.
Is 189 crs a total of 156+43 which is 199 crs, a 10 cr deviation.
What am i missing here ?

@A_shah

Specifically in the case of Deepak Nitrite, the q1 fy 21 results have been below par because of closure of facilities for around a month and drop in prices of Dasda which was the main growth driver for super profits in previous few quarters.

The phenol spreads which had remained subdued during previous few quarters have picked up somehwat but by and large they remain fluctuating.

Deepak has a steady basic chemicals division which is a steady business. But the main growth driver going ahead will be the fine and speciality chemicals division where there is predictable growth with higher margins. You can listen to concall to get a better idea about it.

Stock price action wise, previous all time high of 567 was crossed and stock hit a fresh all time high of 670 plus before correcting due to lacklustre q1 fy 21 results. But once a significant top is crossed, it tends to become a good support zone to watch out for on subsequent declines. As of now that region seems to be holding. We need to see how it holds.

Fundamentally we need to see how the fine and specility chem segmeng plays out besides any improvement in phenol spreads as well as uptick in dasda prices.

I dont track kilpest.

@Mukundks I havent tracked the triggers in lupin too closely but Mayur seems well placed to ride any possible rebound on the auto sector. One can listen to the candid talk of Mr Poddar on concalls. One has to consider the levels to where stocks like mayur have corrected during the previous correction. Post significant falls, any positive news for beaten down stocks is often cheered very well by markets.

Regarding responses to results it often takes a few days for the market to react properly to results. So one has to be patient to see how the market reaction plays out.

@Aluwalia Defence stocks have as you said shown a lot of momentum post govt policy annoucements. But I am not too big a fan of playing themes based on govt announcements. I would prefer to wait for actual results to materialise and only then take a call. Chart pattern wise these stocks have done very well but I prefer to look elsewhere.

@vivekinfinite, Not tracking nb ventures.

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The main interest in Kilpest as well as the recent profit jump comes from its unlisted subsidiary 3B Blackbio Biotech, which is into diagnostic business. There is a separate thread on Kilpest worth checking out.

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We work with data mostly published by various listed companies showcasing their financial performance, management interviews etc but I observe an interesting fact on individual thread for respective scrip also contributes in identifying the fancy stock of market.

Following data is related to Kilpest thread on our lovely forum

The thread started almost 10 years back. It had 64 posts till covid hit India started first lockdown, the thread got 113 posts in next 4 months & further 54 posts in last 30 days

To put it in simpler words

64 posts in 9+ years
113 posts in 4 months
54 posts in 30 days

We have seen activity reducing as soon as the stock looses its charm among investors.

Kilpest or activity on any other thread has helped me in tracking market fancy stocks & most of them turn out to be good for retailers, who don’t have access to information related to company. It helps us other way as well… decreasing no of posts give a hint of mood of retailers… e.g. Laopala used to see regular activity but has lost it way on the thread and market prices also.

@hitesh2710 : I thought of sharing relation between investor psychology and valuepickr thread of respective company through this post. Feel free to remove if it doesn’t add value.

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Hi @mrai74 could you also please share the methodology for the counting? Was it an automated script, or a manual counting that you did? If the former, would it be possible to share it so that rest of us could also make use of it.

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Hi @hitesh2710 sir. Sometime back you had mentioned that you are invested in Polyplex and Cosmo Films as a technical bet based on industry tailwinds. Polyplex has come up with good results but the price hasn’t moved at all today.

Wanted to know your views on the industry. Is this high growth sustainable in the coming quarters or it was one-off and things will normalize going forward?