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Hitesh portfolio

Whats your view on recent results of Bharat Rasayan ? More importantly how is it placed technically ? A chart enclosed for your ready reference. Cup & Handle formation is there, What cud be the target?

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@pankajdewan, @alexander
I have added another point on above discussion in topic POA - karvy fiasco. Please read their and request to reply their only. Nothing personal but please we should let this forum for hiteshbhai and his views on shares and sector. It helps in continuity of discussion and reading. Anything about share market and it’s operation their are many who can answer . So We better not disturbed him.

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@hitesh2710 Are you the same hitesh patel who is starting the advisory with Abhishek? I saw it in his blog. Please clarify.

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@Vivek_6954

Bharat rasayan has come out with steady numbers for q4 fy 20 with good improvement in cash flows. Need to see how this trend continues. Charts wise, it broke out from a cup and handle pattern on daily charts at 6900-7000 with targets in vicinity of 9000. Above 8000-8100 it crosses its all time highs and would be in strong uprend.

@vrs The numbers reported by blue dart since past many quarters have been disappointing and hence the stock price too is in a downtrend. Its better to wait for trend to change or company to start delivering in terms of numbers before considering investment. It does have a moat in terms of being a market leader but if the moat cannot be turned into profitable growth then it remains only a paper moat.

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@arpans

I am the same hitesh patel :grinning: partnering with abhishek in his new venture. Interactions on this thread and forum shall continue unless there are any conflicts of interest.

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Hi Hitesh bhai,
What’s your views on agriculture sector due to the back to back good monsoon and breakthrough reforms announced by govt ?
Is it good to play this theme through direct agrichem , tractors or through 2 wheelers?
Which good companies you feel can have high growth from this and whether this will have pharma like trajectory? Many thanks

No conflict of interest unless you post contradictory views on different platform…and valuepickr diaspora has no doubt about your integrity…request to continue your selfless service here…

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Hello @hitesh2710 ji, I have heard Warren Buffett say that he could achieve (and had achieved) a much greater return if he had less money. He has also mentioned that the way he would go about it would be by going over thousands of pages of information about various companies (he did this with the Moody’s annual compilation where he found information on thousands of companies). Is there an equivalent to that resource in India. I have seen that Dalal street magazine has a databank but that does not provide enough information. Have you ever encountered a better option? Thank you!

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@A_shah

The agri theme stocks are picking up steam gradually and one can have a look at agrochem, (some of them have already run up), tractors, tillers, fertiliser companies etc Care should be taken to select good companies from within these spaces.

@Pavandeep_Singh We cannot all be in the same class as WB. But for someone with a smaller capital, good small caps could offer a fertile hunting ground. screener.in is a good resource where one can create customised screen to find out good companies.

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@hitesh2710 ji,

What is your opinion about parking idle cash in ITC, given its high dividend yield?

Hi @hitesh2710 Sir, what are your views on the holding off the expansion plans by Transpek. Are they seeing any issues with their largest client or is it just that the client is not seeing much growth in the end products and hence, has kept the orders stagnant?

Your insights would be helpful.

Regards
Krishna

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Hi Hitesh bhai,
Is this applicable to spec chemicals business also as they too are b2b ?

How does Ajanta compare to Alembic in the current scenario of exports ? Ajanta has been a consistent outperformed till date
Thanks

ITC as a parking space seems a good option . But it has undergone a sharp run up from 150 to 200 levels within last 3-4 months so one needs to accumulate it gradually.

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@inteliinv

I don’t have the exact idea about the reason for holding off of capex, but must be partially due to the conservative nature of the promoters. They might have considered the uncertainties related to the current environment while deciding on the capex.

If they answer questions in AGM, it will provide better answers. Maybe a few of us should drop a mail query to the CS.

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@A_shah

Comparison between processor companies and speciality chem cos is not an apple to apple comparison because the latter will have a wider addressable market and higher no of customers as compared to the former.

About comparison between ajanta and alembic, one needs to compare exports to regulated markets to get a true picture. You can put in the relevant numbers for both companies and you will get a definite answer. Ajanta today is where alembic was a few years ago.

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If i am not wrong, most of the Pharma business runs on prescription. With the epidemic not ebbing away and hitting highs on a daily basis and with reduced footfalls of the patient, hows it going on?

How to assess the Pharma companies(particularly the moat) as most of them hanker to be the first to launch to get 6 months exclusive period post the approval. Being a layman how can we track this and the market which these products going to offer. With this exclusivity and cooling off later on unless it comes with another blockbuster, can we infer its sort of cyclical sector only?

Thanks in advance.

Hi Rudresh
Will try to give my 2 cents on pharma ( out of my limited experience and insights from Hitesh bhai ) though it will not have the terrific insights and depths which Hitesh bhai revert has .
Pharma has many sub segments like formulations branded, api , cdmo , generic etc
1 First signs are if you read concall of pharma companies they have started sounding bullish
On the opportunities . Do read concall transcripts to get conviction
2 it’s a personal view and I may be wrong but the earlier mistakes that were committed and usfda issues happened, a lot of good companies might have rectified that and would have preventive mechanisms in place .
3 you are right that domestic companies may do less well . As Hitesh bhai pointed out , in current scenario export companies seem the flavour with countries wanting to reduce dependence on China . API manufacturers considering their expertise and China factor seem to have nice prospects . Cdmo / crams is another area .
4 when you arent sure which one will fly, it’s better to hold them as a basket where management is great and theres a consistent performance record . Companies I like ( purely for discussion purpose and not a recommendation pls do your due diligence or consult a advisor) are dr reddy , Cipla, divis , abbott , laurus , neyland, biocon , syngene etc

5 Also remember that most of fact is discounted by market and by the time story is out most of the run up would have happened. Hence it always makes sense to read concalls and have a look at companies posting new highs and then follow it up with fundamental analysis

Disc - invested in some pharma companies mentioned above . Am not a sebi registered analyst or advisor . This is not a recommendation and there are high chances of me being wrong as am an amateur . It’s just for discussion purpose

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Dear Hitesh ji,

Thank you so much for your patience and generosity in sharing your knowledge. Really appreciate your clarity of thought and willingness to help the investor community.

My question is not specific stock related, but your outlook how long term investors should tread in today’s uncertain time (specifically as we stand in beginning July 2020) and further to your response to @gautham1 . Today, the world is completely affected by the pandemic. However some pockets of the world / economy are gradually opening up in a cautious manner. In the absence of any definative medical breakthrough, there is a lot of uncertainty in the near term. A shutdown again is not beyond the realm of possibility once travel restrictions are opened up. Markets obviously are doing their own thing of inching up every day after the sharp fall in March. People sitting in the sidelines are feeling left out of the rally. While the fear of economic crisis in case the pandemic is not controlled is a real fear, the liquidity being pumped in globally will ensure that there is adequate support if the markets falls. In short no one has any clue as to what the future will hold.

So the limited question is what % of equity portfolio in your mind is that we should keep for any dips (dry powder). As you have previously advised I have used the rally to get off from weaker stocks that were accumulated over time. Say 80% invested and 20% in cash after booking losses in low conviction stocks and mistakes. Do you think we should deploy now or wait for any further correction - or any strategy how to deploy funds. I completely understand that the level of markets may not correspond to the stock level and good stocks can be purchased if there is valuation comfort especially for long term investment. However wanted to hear your thoughts in a more general sense about cash component and strategy to start deploying esp after this brisk run up.

Thanks!

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Hitesh bhai,

Can you please give your views on RVNL from a long term perspective with the recent push for privatisation in railways announced by the govt

@amitbansal01

One thing I have realised over the past few months is that its difficult and futile to try and predict the market direction especially in the short to medium term timeframes. If someone were to say in March during the bloodbath that markets would be above 10500 by july, there would be very few takers for that sort of logic. So in effect no one had any clue about where markets are headed now that we can see in the rear view mirror limited to few weeks back. I myself tried to use elliot wave pattern to figure out where markets are headed and the markets had a different direction to what I expected.

But after a point, I figured out that if you can’t beat them join them. :grinning: But since I was scared to invest in a lot of sectors fearing poor growth for next few months and uknown impacts of corona virus, I zeroed down on few companies where I felt that even if Corona virus pandemic were to continue, these companies will not be impacted too negatively. So once I was confident about these companies (pharma, chemicals etc ) I had the confidence to gradually build positioins in some select companies from the sector.

What I cannot come to terms with is the kind of run up I have seen in a lot of small and midcaps where I cannot see too much clarity on earnings visibility in the backdrop of the pandemic. The kind of run up I have seen in these names has caught me by surprise. But even with good chart patterns in these names, I cannot bring myself to bet big on these kind of names. So for me the focus area was always companies where I could bet sufficiently without getting too worried about market direction.

About liquidity, its anybody’s guess how long and how much liquidity will continue in the markets. But if anyone is not too confident about the markets it makes sense to stay in cash to the levels where they have a comfortable sleep. That level will be different for different people and one can take an individual call on that.

@Mukundks I dont track rvnl anymore.

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