ValuePickr Forum

Hiren ved presentation - vp chintan baithak 2019

Please find attached the presentation of Hiren Ved when he talked at VP Chintan Baithak 2019. We have received his go ahead and hence sharing it for the benefit of the forum.

For me the most powerful takeaway message from his talk is to be observant in the markets. One needs to look beyond stock picking and have an idea about macros and broader markets to mature to the next level of investing.

The other aspect of his talk is his generosity in sharing knowledge. He answered all the questions asked of him without any dodging. We were expecting two sessions from him, each of around 2 hours consisting of his talk on his presentation and q&a based second session. But as time flew by, we ended up having two marathon sessions where he shone through like an illuminating star.

His whole talk was laced with a lot of humour and wit and that kept the atmosphere alive. We have always been lucky to have brilliant guests including Prof Bakshi, Sumeet Nagar, Kenneth Andrade and Vinay Parikh. Hiren is a brilliant guy who manages to simplify things and makes them easy to understand without too much theorizing.

The presentation in conjunction with the notes put up by harshit and dhiraj and others should provide readers a fair idea about his though processes, background and investing style.Hiren - Presentation - ValuePickr Forum - 20 June 2019 - Final.pdf (619.2 KB)

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We had tried to record some sessions a couple of meets ago. Recording videos entails two kinds of problems.

First is the sheer effort of recording as recording so many sessions takes up a lot of space and we need to have devices that have a lot of digital space. And the next is loading up big files on VP which again is a problem.

Next problem is of getting permissions from guests/participants to post their videos. Many people are not too comfortable talking when video recording is on. The flow of articulation tends to get affected.

So its not worth the effort to proceed on this path. Besides people should get motivated to be a part of VP Goa meet to be able to a part of this group and experience presentations and talks first hand. Some priviliges should be earned. :grinning:

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I think it could be non intrusive, record only audio instead of video and audio and could be hosted on YouTube. Many companies host training manuals on YouTube

The PowerPoint presentation is great however in my experience two people watching and listening to the same thing interpret it differently. Sometimes you yourself tend to interpret the second viewing differently. Many people go back to reading classics and find new gems

From the PowerPoint, I think Hiren was very candid and has gone through a journey most would eventually go through and probably arrive at the same place as him. It would make it easier if it is indeed one of the purposes of this forum.

Its not possible to go back in time but I think going forward if its done, it will immensely benefit people in their own journesy.

I agree that some people might not be willing to travel long distances if they can get the same benefit by listening to the audio, and in a way it would be like cutting your own foot with an axe but I think guys that have presented and are active here should not be recorded as they can be reached if required and it gives something to aim for, for people that want that and are active.

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When Hiren says that he watches Indian and world macros, what statistics is he looking at?

Does he have a group of statistics. Things that’s are ongoing development by nature like China/USA trade war, you cannot predict which way it will go. But if unemployment in economy is low you can reasonably predict government might spend more money in the economy and if inflation is high they might take corrective actions

Usually governments have a pattern so they like to wait for an observation and a confirmation before they take any action

Did he say what macros are usually watched by him or his team ?

@edwardlobo

Hiren referred to macro not in terms of statistical numbers. He advised to look at what is happening around us, and try to take cue from the same. Idea was to sensitise guys who are limited to only looking at their companies to look at broader picture and have a broader vision of things. This is usually a sign of investor maturing to a stage 2 or version 2.

I have seen this happen with a lot of investors who begin their investing career after reading a few or even a lot of books especially those focussed on stock picking methods. Sometimes no matter how good the company is, if the market is weak and in a downswing its better to keep the company in watchlist and be greedy about getting it cheaper. Or sometimes if the bigger picture in the market changes and the company can get affected by exernal factors one has to look out for the same.

Idea about the macros can be had by reading newspapers, sectoral reports, interest rates, commodity rates etc. This should not be a thing which should be stuck on while buying good companies but if something comes out from observing these macro factors it has also got to be considered. It appears something against what Peter Lynch mentions in his book One Up on wall street regarding macros. For a small investor it may be okay to ignore macros but for someone like hiren who manages big sized funds it could assume a lot of importance.

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Please do not dilute the importance of this thread by asking for video/audio recordings which is not possible due to many reasons. Better ask questions regarding Hiren’s presentation & get better insights of his immense investing wisdom.

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Is there any formula for Risk/Reward ratio which we can use?