added more of ajanta and pi industries to the smallcap portfolio and page to the largecap portfolio on friday
hemant,
any specific stock pattern based on charts on PI Inds? any targets in view?
hi hitesh,
technically counting the waves, pi ind completed primary 1 in oct-11 and completed an a-b-c flat correction in mar-12 which was primary 2 and is currently in the initial stages of primary 3. this suggests that good times are ahead for the company. its difficult to set targets for 3rd waves and i would take it one wave at a time. initial target should be 1000+ which should be achieved in the next 12-15 months.
fundamentals excite me in pi inds at the moment as csm segment is firing on all cylinders. csm segment grew 100% in this quarter even without the jambusar facility contributing to it. i also see a lot of operating leverage coming into play once growth accelerates. in the current environment it is difficult to find companies who have the visibility to grow at 25-30% for the next few years and market would pay a good premium for such companies so i see a case for pe expansion as well. i have taken an initial position in the stock and slowly adding to it.
current mid/small cap carnage has given some wonderful oppurtunities to accumulate my favourite stocks on a discount sale. bought ajanta at 565, amara raja at 253, hdfc bank at 620 and titan at 251 over the last few weeks. would continue to look out for more oppurtunities.
Dear Hemantbhai., Titan has fallen 21 % from topā¦do u think now right price to add OR feel it can still go lower
Hi kishore,
It sure looks like an investment worthy candidate at the moment. I have been personally been accumulating it close to 250 levels. I think it should form a tradable bottom in the next week or so. The next uptrend would tell us if the correction is over or there is more pain to go.
It has been a while since I posted my portfolio updates. The ongoing small and madcap carnage has given some excellent opportunities to buy some stocks at attractive prices which I couldnāt get into earlier. Like atul auto at 145, Wimplast at 275, hsil at 91, la opala at 265, titan at 230, page at 3200. I reduced weightages to some old stocks to raise cash for these new buys. Here is how it looks now:
Mayur 6%
Astral 7%
Amara raja 6%
Atul auto 5%
Hawkins 6%
Page 7%
Cera 7%
Ajanta 10%
Gruh 7%
Hdfc bank 7%
Pi ind 6%
Poly med 6%
Unichem 6%
Titan 6%
Wimplast, la opala, hsil, granules, arshiya - 8%( still accumulating)
Hi Hemant,
Your call on Ajanta, though it has already run up, how much you see it can go up from here technically in the near term.
And on Wimplast what do you think it can go down further to which levelsā¦
thanks as always
hi dinesh,
as i had mentioned in my technical section, that ajanta is in major 3 of primary 3 now and hence can keep surprising on the upside. one thing we need to understand is that when stocks are in such strong uptrends, valuations donāt matter. it had touched 800 already and could continue higher. its a buy on dips for me and not a sell.
wimplast has corrected nicely and i would like to see it forming a base around these levels. if market conditions are bad, it can touch the recent panic low of around 250. i plan to accumulate it in the region of 250-300.
hi hemant
any thoughts on granules, it has corrected a lot. Do you thin this sub 100 CMP is a good point to start accumulating ?
Hi sunny,
Story with granules is about the huge expansion coming into play from the next quarter as mgmt has mentioned in the last quarter. If the expansion does happen as mgmt has been projecting then this coul easily be a multibagger. This quarterās results would be bad as expected as the new capacity is yet to contribute meaningfully to revenues while the running costs are still being expensed. Mgmt commentary about the new capacity would be crucial to re-rating. Downside in any case seems limited to 80-90. I have been accumulating this slowly and would add more on any sharp dips.
added some ajanta on the results day after the stock unexpectedly sold off to below 750. added granules around 100-105 and wasluckily rewarded with some quick gains. feels like the bad times may be over here. have been accumulating lupin and wimplast over the last many weeks.
the market is rewarding growth stories and brutally punishing the stocks which donāt deliver growth. smallcaps seem to have finished their correction in the short term and should see a good rally over the next 2-3 months.
quite a few changes recently. i made calls on ajanta and astral for a good run and was lucky to add to their allocations by reducing unichem and it has worked out beautifully. added to kaveri(after looking at inventory numbers)and to wockhardt today(in the morning around 1030). also have added a few steady large cap compounders to the portfolio over the last 6 months to provide steadiness given the size of my portfolio was getting quite big. current portfolio:
ajanta 13%
astral 13%
cera10%
page10%
kaveri9%
hawkins6%
hdfc bk6%
indusind 6%
atul auto5%
mayur5%
PI inds 5%
poly med 5%
unichem/wimplast/wockhardt/granules/la opala7%
portfolio has now generated 105% returnsince dec-11 when i started investing but this is unlikely to be repeated. expect to generate 30-35% per annum from here.
Impressed with your return figure Hemant bhai. I too started investing from nov-11, and could reach 60% return till now.
returnsince
@ Subash- How do you calculate your return when you keep adding money to stocks every month?
Hemant, I guess you would be doing the sameā¦ So same question may apply to you also.
Impressed with your return figure Hemant bhai. I too started investing from nov-11, and could reach 60% return till now.
returnsince
hi jatin,
i do not use the SIP strategy that subash has been using. 90% of my investment corpus has been the same since and i have added only the rest 10% since then. my returns are calculated on the stocks since inception on inception-to-date basis. so returns on them would be uderstated on an annualized basis but given that i have only added 10% cash in the meanwhile, this difference would be pretty much noise on the overall portfolio level.
Hi Jatin,
I am a pure SIP guy, and my portfolio size has seen a roller coaster ride. So calculating return via XIRR is just painful. I use something like MF NAV for calculating total return.
The approach is simple. You need to track your current portfolio value (CPV) and total gain (realised and unrealised) (TG) on daily basis. So your gain (G) on any day will be
G-today = (TG-today - TG-yesterday)/CPV-today
So your total gain will be multiplication of all (1+G) for each and every day.
Attaching a sample spreadsheet for use by all. Use the spreadsheet at your own risk.
Regards,
-Subash
portfolio has now generated 105% returnsince dec-11 when i started investing but this is unlikely to be repeated. expect to generate 30-35% per annum from here.
Portfolio-tracker.xlsx (25.9 KB)
Good one Subash but noting down CPV & TG daily is painfulā¦
I will stick with myold & simple XIRR 
Hemant,
Pretty impressive performance. The way you combine fundamental and technical analysis is commendable.
Regards,
Ankit
Hi Jatin,
I follow this approach, you might just well give this a try
myold 