Subash,
1). I think the range of PE needs to be much wider - actually there is not much difference in the stated range.
2). Not sure about the assumed growth rates for some of the stocks
3). Its also a good exercise to see whether the target price is coming from expected EPS growth or assumed P/E expansion from current levels.
Great work Subhashā¦A great thinking exercise for all of us and a nice input.
This is the reason why Valuepickr is so good. The diverse ideas, the logical thinking and the cross-questioning.
sold off whatever unichem i had recently bought below 160 just after the results were out at 176. i think the stock rightly didnāt participate in the pharma bull run as it still seems to be struggling with growth. bought more lupin with the proceeds.
Hemant need your help on TA for TCS,Lupin n Bajaj Corp.
Hi Hemant,
Could you pls give ur views on Wockhardt & Finolex Cablesā¦
Thatās awesome Sir. But How ??
Results came at 1:16 pm & the BSE chart shows it fell below 170 very soon & then recovered to 172-173 for a few minutes only to fell more.
When did u sell?? Wish I can also sell/ buy after seeing the results before any significant price movementā¦
176).
hi jatin,
i am a professional trader and have access to bloomberg screens which flashes the results directly received from bse. as soon as i saw the results, the stock was still hovering around 176 and i was waiting for the results so sold immediately when i saw disappointing results. i bought this a few weeks earlier near 156 which was a long term support.
Niceā¦ Good short term gains for you.
reduced some hawkins to make a small entry into yes bank and increased small allocation to granules.
Hemant,
What is your view on Ajanta since its valuations seems to be peaking? Should we look at the results on 29th July to take future call or you are still bullish on it for long term?
Regards,
Ankit
hi ankit,
please look at my recent post in the techical updates section.
Hemant,
Some assurance for me!
I had entered earlier at 422, but 380 is looking tempting to accumulateā¦
Are you trading for a potential bounce or initiating a long term position?
hi kuntal,
yes bank has become quite cheap now given almost 35-40 percent correction from the top. i agree that it would find the going tough in tight liquidity environment but i believe from a long term perspective price of 345-350 discounts all negatives. infact, i added to it around 346 today by selling more hawkins. this is a long term position for me.
reduced some hawkins to make a small entry into yes bank and increased small allocation to granules.
Hemant,
Which new private bank according to you is better blaced in valuation and fundamental terms currently (Yes bank vs ING vs Indusind [any other])? Heard about Yes Bank not taking Deccanās NPA on its booksā¦ Any concerns? If I add NBFC to the comparison (Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra Financeā¦), how would you rank them?
Regards,
Ankit
P.S.: Thanks a lot to you and other seniors for sharing your knowledge and insights
hi ankit,
i prefer both yes and indusind at the moment in that order for 2-3 years time. if you are looking short term then hdfc bk would outperform the others. in the nbfc space, i only like the housing finance companies gruh and repco for their long term potential.
Yes bank, Indus Ind Bank and Kotak Bank have the maximum exposure to wholesale funding with 26.6%, 65.8 and 94.1% respectively ( Taken from India Nivesh report). With the RBI tightening liquidity, these banks are exposed the most and it is no surprise that these banks have lost the most in the past week. The increased borrowing costs will directly impact their NIMs. In addition they will have to take MTM losses with rising yields. This ofcourse applies to all the banks.
I am not saying that this is going to happen, but this is what exactly brought Lehman brothers down. When the markets froze, it was very dependent on the wholesale funding and it went under.
One needs to be cautious with both Indus Ind and Yes bank. I think that there is more downsides still left in these stocks as this temporary measure is not as temporary and will last for a few months for the RBI to demonstrate that it means business in bolstering the rupee.
However, the rising rupee is good in the long term as it will convince the FIIās to stay in the market.
Hi Sharma,
a small questionā¦ According to the above, Kotak bank has more allocation for wholesale funding and so it should have been impacted more. But the market price correction had taken place in complete reverse order i.e Yes falling more than Indus and Kotakā¦
any explanation is much appreciatedā¦
sold off rest of hawkins and bought more of astral, ajanta, poly med, kaveri yes bk and indusind bk with the proceeds. hawkins has been a hope story for the last 4 years and remains so. i would rather prefer growing companies than unreasonably expensive ones. wouldnāt mind buying hawkins back 30 percent higher if growth looks more certain.
Hi Hemant,
Am surprised that you donāt own Canfin and have not added after the quarterly results butadded more to your existing scrips.
Would like to know your thoughts on that and Canfin.
Rgs
Juzer
hi juzer,
i am not too excited with canfinās growth yet. there are other housing fin companies like dhfl and indiabulls who have grown at a good pace but still donāt command premium valuations like gruh. market is either not convinced of its management execution capabilities for long term or their ability to grow without compromising on asset quality. also, in the tight liquidity conditions like these and rising rates, canfin may struggle. q1 results count for nothing. what remains to be seen is which fin companies manage the next two quarters well and come on top. i wouldnāt mind buying it higher once i see market is getting convinced of the story. i am currently buying hdfc bk, yes bk and indusind bk. all these have proven themselves through atleast one rising rates and falling rates cycles and hence i have more confidence in their management to navigate through the next few tough quarters.
