Thanks for your reply. Many things got cleared. Just one thing i would like to correct…AMCs are Trust entities. Meaning they are pass through entities. So when a fund manager sells shares whether short term or in long term, he dosenot have to pay any tax. So fund managers are lucky chaps…they can be in and out of shares without any tax implications. But this is not applicable to others. So if somebody has very high need for buying and sellling, instead of him doing it, he can do it thorugh a fund manager of mutual fund.
2 Likes
Portfolio Update - CY 2022
2022 was a year of consolidation for Indian markets digesting the large bull market gains over the past couple of years. However, 2022 should also be a great source of pride for Indians as Nifty was the best performing market amongst major global economies. Nifty’s return of 4.3% must be viewed in the context of massive macroeconomic headwinds (aggressive US Fed rate hike, unprecedented FII selling, highest US inflation in 40 years) and geopolitical turmoil (Russia Ukraine war) in Europe.
My portfolio performance was flat as a pancake, also digesting the unbelievable 50%+ gains of 2021. Few notable outperformers in the PF were Mirza, Macpower, MAS Financial, Electronics Mart (IPO) and huge underperformers were Valiant Organics, Vaibhav Global along with insurance sector laggards.
2022 has been a year of great learning for me especially from a technical analysis stand point (referring to Stan Weinstein’s Stage Analysis). This has really helped me become a lot more patient with my buy/sell process. Armed with the right technical understanding, a person no longer needs to chase stocks when buying but let it come to their defined buy zone or technical buy levels. Similarly, no matter how good the business fundamentals may be - following some simple rules can help protect large profits and exit without suffering too much pain. So learning the basics of “Stage analysis” was an absolute god-send!
Portfolio Update
I’m now starting to hold different baskets of stocks in my portfolio including techno-funda bets. As long as the combined portfolio delivers 15%+ CAGR and beats major indices, I’ll be satisfied and continue to run the PF myself. 10 years into the market, I still feel there is so much more to learn in terms of investing styles and I’m only still scratching the surface.
Exits
-
Macpower - My most profitable stock market investment till date with 7 digit profits, exited 75% position at 375 (3.7x) as markets started valuing this nanocap B2B capex dependent business at 30x earnings.
-
Inox Leisure - A business which I really like and still feel has great potential in a market like India. Cinema is one of the best mass entertainment options across all age categories. However, I feel the crazy narrative being spun on social media #BoycottBollywood has really dented the image of Bollywood and I was shocked to see Inox making a loss in Q2FY23 which was a completely normal quarter post Covid with many big releases including Brahmastra. This basically led me to the precipice for exiting with a 70% profit. However this provides us a great observation test in my view, whether politics wins or the human need for entertainment in Cinemas. I’m confident it will be the latter, but just don’t know when. And being too early or too late can often be the same as being wrong in the market.
-
Neuland Labs - Like it’s topsy turvy business performance, I’ve also had a roller-coaster ride in Neuland with initial buy at 600 odd in Jul’20 seeing it rise rapidly to 2800 and then watch it plummet all the way back to 1000. After the good results in the latest quarter, I’ve made a full exit with decent profit (40%) mainly because of the extremely unpredictable and lumpy business.
-
Muthoot Finance - Booked -15% loss, got the initial investment thesis wrong and the AUM/loan-book growth guidance was lower than I had initially imagined plus very high competitive intensity from banks led to marketing campaigns such as teaser loans at 7% ROI and very unattractive NIMs. Overall, I still rate is as a very good business but in a very competitive landscape where growth is becoming an issue.
-
Cera Sanitaryware - Exited with handsome gains (2.7x) due to valuation concerns and potential future returns after the stock hit 6000 recently as I don’t expect it to return more than 15% in the next few years based on the given growth guidance.
| Name | Current % |
|---|---|
| RPPL | 7.59% |
| ICICIGI | 7.57% |
| HDFC | 7.10% |
| ICICIPRULI | 5.88% |
| ISEC | 5.55% |
| BETA | 5.51% |
| HCLTECH | 5.13% |
| GLS | 4.18% |
| MASFIN | 4.08% |
| ICICIBANK | 3.63% |
| KOTAKBANK | 3.56% |
| MOMOMENTUM | 3.52% |
| POLYPLEX | 3.39% |
| REDINGTON | 3.16% |
| HDFCLIFE | 3.04% |
| GOLDIAM | 2.89% |
| MAFANG+ ETF | 2.72% |
| RADIOCITY | 2.68% |
| MACPOWER | 2.41% |
| POLYCAB | 1.96% |
| APOLLOPIPE | 1.94% |
| VAIBHAVGBL | 1.79% |
| DIAMONDYD | 1.76% |
| VALIANTORG | 1.55% |
| ELECTRONICS MART | 1.46% |
| VMART | 1.43% |
| KSOLVES | 1.09% |
| SWARAJENG | 1.02% |
| JASCH INDUSTRIES | 0.98% |
| ACRYSIL | 0.74% |
| SOLARA | 0.70% |
Note: Portfolio holdings are as of 7 Jan 2023 and charts below are as of 31 Dec 2022
Insurance companies which have been a big laggard in the past couple of years, have had a pretty good start to 2023. Very early but promising signs for insurance sector after a long sideways run.
25 Likes
Hi @gurjota, Can you clarify more on your learning on technical analysis. For example, (a) which technical indicators you use to identify if the stock is in a buy zone or sell zone of the stage analysis (b) which combination of technical indicators you found useful and tested in your approach.