Anyone tracking Positron Energy? Trading at a PE of just 6.6x and EVEBITDA at 2.4x; almost 50% market cap is just cash. What caught my eye was that they have long term contracts for procurement of Natural Gas equal to 22,000 mmbtu per day. Its not clear how much supply they are still getting but even if its 40-50% they can sell in the open market at 3x the cost price as they are a gas aggregator, see this article about gas prices- Adani Total Gas raises prices, citing Middle East conflict - The Economic Times
If they are sourcing natural gas from the US or other such locations then in that case they would still be getting 100% supply and they could sell the entire amount in the open market?
Gas prices are going to take a while to normalize so this situation could easily drag on a few months atleast so at current valuations downside seems very limited and upside could potentially be massive??
SME and illiquidity are the main reasons why its gotten so cheap IMO. Growth was above 100% in H1FY26 but margins disappointed a bit as it was a tough time for all gas supply companies; however the fall seems overdone especially as H2 is when they get the majority of their income.
Kindly go through their materials; 90%+ revenues are from gas aggregation and sales. Having said that its not a simple commodity company there is tremendous value addition as supply of natural gas in India is not a very straightforward process and requires lots of inputs and planning.
It will be very risky to act upon such ideas without ascertaining the facts. I am not aware of the details of procurement of natural gas of 22000 mmbtu per day. It appears to be improbable as it can not be daily. This is my thinking. If others have any concrete information then please give.
Conversion of Attached Contract Volumes to Average MMBTU per Day and Annual Revenue Projections
The two attached announcements detail separate long-term Re-gasified Liquefied Natural Gas (RLNG) purchase agreements executed by Positron Energy Limited. These volumes have been converted to average daily MMBTU using the precise contract periods (calculated inclusively via standard date arithmetic) and the stated total contracted quantities. All calculations assume uniform offtake over the respective tenures. Annual revenue projections are based on an assumed selling price of ₹1,000 per MMBTU and a 365-day year for annualisation.
Combined Position During Overlap Period (1 October 2025 to 31 March 2027)
The two contracts operate concurrently for approximately 18 months, yielding a cumulative average daily volume of 22,806 MMBTU/day (16,161 + 6,645). This closely aligns with the company’s stated ramp-up target of around 22,000 MMBTU/day by the beginning of the next financial year, as referenced in the 01/09/2025 announcement.
Using the company’s indicated cumulative volume of 22,000 MMBTU/day for reference:
These figures represent average daily offtake and corresponding revenue potential from the secured supplies in the attached documents alone. Actual revenue will depend on offtake scheduling, realised selling prices, and any additional sourcing arrangements. The long-term contract provides sustained supply beyond March 2027 at the 16,161 MMBTU/day average.
