With the conf call, we have some clarity on few first level things like - related party transactions, capex plan and capacity utilization. The next step in analysis now it to look at fluoropolymers and understand more about them - applications/customers/competition/technology etc.
First thing to ask management is split of revenues/capacities and capex between various new FPs - PVDF, PFA, FKM etc. In this context, the next big FP seems to be PVDF and it probably will become as big or even bigger than PTFE.
Two major upcoming applications of PVDF are - a) backsheets for Solar films b) binder for electrode and coating for separator.
Let me talk about solar application in this post.
Thanks @Worldlywiseinvestors for bringing the capex plan for PVDF films and confirmation that products will be for both domestic and international markets. Also they will be doing backward integration with VDC for PVDF.
Arkema looks like a big player in PVDF films for Solar.
Arkema PVDF Film Webpage - https://www.extremematerials-arkema.com/en/markets-and-applications/renewable-energy/photovoltaic/
Arkema PPT on PVDF Films - https://www.extremematerials-arkema.com/files/live/sites/arkema_extremematerials/files/downloads/market-presentations/arkema-mp-photovoltaic-backsheet-market-presentation.pdf
Few things to note from above -
- PVDF is needed in solar cell backsheet
- It is needed for UV protection, extreme weathers and paint retention etc.
- More the Fluorine content in PVDF, better are the results. Arkema claims 59% F content in their PVDF and hence superiority. We need to ask this question to management.
- Better the backsheet, lower the maintenance and higher the RoI. So as solar industry matures in India and worldwide, PVDF film will continue to remain a critical component.
Another player which has presence in PVDF films is Dupont. Its brand name is Tedlar.
Tedlar webpage - When Proven Performance Matters | Tedlar® PVF film-based backsheets | DuPont
Dupont Reliability Study PDF - https://www.dupont.com/content/dam/dupont/amer/us/en/photovoltaic/public/documents/Global-Field-Reliability-Report-2020.pdf
Results of Defect Study done by DuPont →
Few things to note -
- Tedlar product is not PVDF, but it is PVF
- From the reliability study, Dupont claims that PVDF backsheets start cracking around year 10. Some US installations in needed PVDF films replacement after 8 years.
- Tadlar (PVF product) had very low defect for 35 years.
There are a few things we need to establish from PVDF POV and GFL POV -
- How big a threat is PVF realistically to PVDF solar films? My understanding is that Dupont Tedlar is quite expensive product compared to PVDF.
- Where does GFL PVDF solar films stand from product quality point of view vs say Arkema or other players etc? How important really F content in final film is? What other properties differentiate one PVDF film from another?
- Does GFL plan to get into PVF films? Is there any R&D spend on it? Or is PVF a really niche and degrowing market?
Solvay Solar PV cell webpage -
https://www.solvay.com/en/chemical-categories/specialty-polymers/batteries/photovoltaic-cell
Solvay used something called as ECTFE and not PVDF for the solar films.
Finally, thanks @spatel bhai to bring RenewSys to our attention. RenewSys is one of the solar film manufacturer.
Backsheet selection webpage - https://www.renewsysworld.com/post/choice-of-materials-in-backsheet
Datsheets for various RenewSys products - https://www.renewsysworld.com/backsheet-downloads-preserv
PRESERV 1 - WV datasheet - https://9021fdc6-0afa-473e-b60c-1dbccce51d7c.filesusr.com/ugd/84a06c_bb3be40c4d474438b96411d682942bdd.pdf
Few things to note -
- RenewSys has both the products - PVDF films as well as PVF films.
- While PVF range comprises the PRESERV 225 WV, 300 WV are available, the PVDF-based laminates are available both for 1000 VDC as well as 1500 VDC as in PRESERV 190 WD, 300 WD, 300 TF.
- Preserv 1 - WV - datasheet clearly mentions Dupont Tedlar
Few things to establish -
- Talk to solar film manufacturer and pick their brains on what they think are important things in PVDF films. How do they see upcoming GFL product in terms of quality and cost.
- Who are existing suppliers for Solar films to RenewSys type of players - my speculation would be Chinese players. If my speculation is true, then we also need to understand GFL’s competitiveness vs Chinese players and entire duty landscape.
- RenewSys currently has capacity of 3GW and they are expanding to 4 GW. What kind of PVDF is needed per GW of solar capacity is another thing we need to establish.
- Another thing to establish is how much solar capacity is coming in India in FY22, FY23, FY24 and FY25 in granular manner and any regulatory changes that can disrupt solar installation pace in India (ala wind energy disruption due to moving to tender based mechanism).
Above article talks about few capacity plans -
- Tata Power - 4GW plant capex
- Vikram Solar - 1.2 GW - inaugurated in July
- First Solar - broke ground - 3.3 GW - commercialization by second half of 2023
- Adani - plan to setup 3.3 GW
- Reliance plan to setup 100 GW
Disc - same as before