Long time lurker here, finally found the time to put my portfolio for suggestions by this awesome community.
Objective:
1. Gain further insight into my portfolio through comments by experienced members here e.g. better allocations, glaring errors etc.
2. Structure the portfolio to smaller number of companies >10 hopefully
Background: I started my stock investment journey in Jan 2020 and my first scrip to buy was PNB (Sold at a loss much later). Since then I have spend time reading forums, books with the aim to enhance my knowledge and learn from experience. I intend to hold most EV/Green energy stocks to next 2 decades (if it continue to keep to my original thesis)
Investment thinking: my Pre-2020 allocation was Real Estate <60% and Banks FDs <40%. Below represents approx 10-20% of my net worth. I am keenly aware that i got lucky given the timing of my entry hence i want to spend time learning while continue to invest into Index funds to minimize opportunity cost.
Current Portfolio (100% Equity Allocation)
India - 49% (Direct Equity), 6% (Mutual Fund) - 55% Total
Singapore - 32% (ETF, Direct Equity) - 32% Total
Unites States - 8% (Direct Equity), 11% ETF - 13% Total
Automobile industry is cyclical in nature. Timely exit will be required for good returns. Electric vehicle portfolio will cannibalize the petrol or diesel part of the automaker.
Oil again is cyclical. Green energy ultimately is a utility. I don’t think government would allow abnormal margins when it will become more common. It will be good when in expansion mode.
I see banks as a commodity business where the lowest cost provider (loan interest) will win. The speed of approval is an advantage for some of them but they will get competition form fintech in that area going forward.
Publication is a dying industry. If taken as turnaround bet, timely exit is needed.
Thanks for your comments. Given the capital heavy nature of automakers and green energy, I am expecting a runway for good 5-7 years before there is significant saturation in this space.
Agreed on the publishing business however there is digital business that I expect to pick up. Keeping an eye on the revenue uptick of digital business.
Your strategy to increase holding in IDFC to 5% may please be clarified. Process to sell their AUM business is already on. Next step may be merger with IDFCFIRST Bank as the matter is under consideration of respective Boards. So what could be the trigger to increase the allocation at a later stage. IMO IDFC share price coming down on the possible out comes of merger and sale of AUM and keeping in view the furure of IDFCFIRST Bank seems to be bleak.
There is still a significant runway for the merger process. Based on calculations the intrinsic value of IDFC should be around 90-100 (read the IDFC thread for details). Window of opportunity may come in when markets ready to Fed rates hike in march.
I will give my honest opinion, sorry if it contrast your way of thinking…
the idea of investing into the basket of EV theme stocks is good but the weigtage alllocation is definitely quite disappointing… and what if the development on ev get delayed for a while and as stocks are already rallyed you may end up in a consoldation phase. Ideally one should pick and bet on theme but should not give the heavy weight allocation to one particular theme across portfolio weigtage…
and most importantly you missed the asset light ERD segment in EV theme.the early push you could expect towards in this segment and the risk to reward ration is very minimal. Tata Elexi, KPIT, LTTS should do well with comparison to TATA MOTORS, auto industry is asset heavy model, the base is not move as we think. Stocks like IDFC, SBI CARDS, TATA MOTORS, ITC are diffcult to sustain fast pace growth, investor need lot of patience.
we have other mega trend opportunities in segments like QSR( Devyani, Sapphire, Jublian Foods), Music(Saregama, TIPS), Ethanol, Infra, IT, FINTECH(Chola,BAJAJFIN, IIFS FIN), Speciality Chemical, CRAMS/CDMO etc. Your portfolio should consists with diversified stock segment with proportional weigtage, please don’t give heavy weightage to one specfic theme and most importantly not specfic to one stock.
Understood Your points @BejgamNishanth
Both Tata Motor and Chemical have run up a lot recently however the cost % was >12%.
I am watching ERD segment but the valuation are quite high for my liking hence i will wait for an entry in that segment.
QSR and Music streaming is another trend i am researching; rest not so much. i am hoping to get diversification through Index and Mutual Funds (50% into SMallscap).
Pharma/CDMO/Chemicals/Ethanol i dont really understand the business hence i want to stay away until i educate myself on it.
did you go through the last quarter con call of sona blw ,they have order book of 11x of current sales and EV is in initial phase of evolution .do not you think market recognizes it .please provide your inputs
i understand your point (it is similar to Tata Elxsi where management guidance is solid) however i feel there is too much optimism priced in currently.
I am keeping an eye on it to hopefully either build a position slowly through SIP or pick it up cheaper when whole market corrects due to external forces.
