Budget After Effects – Is This a Market Pivot from Capex to Consumption?
The budget injects an additional ₹1 lakh crore into consumers’ hands. Could this be a pivotal moment for market participants to shift focus from capex-driven or low-value stocks to consumption-oriented or high-value stocks?
Growth as an investment style has traditionally been linked to the outperformance of Consumption and Quality stocks (including FMCG and Discretionary). In contrast, the Value style has been associated with the industrial cycle, covering Capital Goods, Infrastructure, PSUs, etc.
An Elara Capital report outlines its reasoning for why the market is shifting its focus from Value to Growth/Quality stocks. It makes for an interesting read.
Note: The confidentiality clause does not mention any copyright restrictions that would prevent sharing.
Markets Changing PIVOT.pdf (1.7 MB)
Aswath Damodaran’s Blog
Data Update 5 for 2025: It’s a small world, after all!
India Data Hub
This Week In Data Newsletter #107
(RBI Rates, Capex recovery, Slowing US Growth and more...)
Topics discussed:
- RBI cuts interest rates, are further rate cuts likely?
- Liquidity situation has improved significantly
- Automobile sales recovered in January
- Energy consumption in January was mixed
- Container throughput at the major ports is growing rapidly
- US labour market remains strong but growth is weaking
- Inflation is rising in the Euro area complicating ECB’s job
looks like sanjeev prasad had the last laugh this time around 
October 2021-march 2023 also the market struggled.
Citi Analysis - India-US Trade: Analysis of Reciprocal Tariff Risks
Sectors at Risk: Chemicals, metal products, and jewelry/diamonds are the sectors most at risk from reciprocal tariffs, followed by transport (ex-Air), pharma, and food.
Positive:
Textiles The US imposes higher tariffs on textiles than India, so this sector may benefit. Aircraft The US also imposes higher tariffs on aircraft than India.
Differential tariffs If India is less impacted on a relative scale after reciprocal tariffs on all countries are decided, this could potentially benefit India through trade and supply chain diversification.
Bilateral Trade Agreement Negotiations on a bilateral trade agreement have been promised, which could lead to India benefiting from relatively lower tariffs.
Macro impact: These reciprocal tariffs could also be generally deflationary for India through multiple indirect channels
Note: The exact timeline of reciprocal tariffs is unclear, suggesting potential for negotiations. India has reduced tariffs on some items of interest to US exporters, Higher oil/gas and defense imports could reduce the trade deficit faster than tariff adjustments. Negotiations on a bilateral trade agreement have also been promised.
20250217_Citi_India_Economics_Granular_Analysis_Of_Reciprocal_Tariffs.pdf (240.4 KB)
The Indus Valley Report 2025
For those intested in History, A series of superb podcasts
This one on the Vijaynagar Empire is particularly interesting
14. Vijayanagara - The Last Em - Fall of Civilizations Podcast - Apple Podcasts
At Par with
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter to Shareholders by Warren Buffett dated 22 Feb 2025: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf
