CanFin Homes was languishing below 100 when I read an Ad in newspaper saying canfin is planning to open more branches and looking out for probationary officers. One of my relatives who attended the interview but she was rejected. The reason cited was they were looking for male candidates who was very comfortable with local regional language and will to go that extra miles to reach set targets. Also they were very active in appointing DSAs who will bring in more sales. LICHFL’s service is very bad but it is thriving only because of its DSA’s.So market has not considered all these developments and was giving the same price to the stock when it had operations only in Bangalore. When I could make this out, I grabbed that opporunity. It is a LICHFL in the making. I heard from one of their branch persons that Edelweiss was eyeing for some stake though I am not sure of that development. All in all, a decent stable performer with consistent dividends (hope with growth prospects, dividends will also grow).
Pharma is outside my circle of competence but FDC finds a place in my portfolio. It has a great brand ‘Electral’ in ORS segment. I had interacted with a couple of chemists, they said that in ORS segment, Electral is mostly prescribed. So it has FMCG nature of business. in Pharma space. It has also good array of products in other therapeutic areas.bIt fits into my bill as it is a stable boring stock with a clean balance sheet available at attractive valuations (even now).One concern is management is not very aggresive enough and not sure what they are planning to do with excess cash apart from buybacks. Recent news about sell out was also denied by the management. I want the company to be retained by same management for their ethical practices and conservative operations. After all, folks love FDC not for its growth but for its stability and clean balance sheet. Overall a predictable stock in an unpredictable sector (atleast for persons like me ). If there is any change in management, I would sell my FDC stocks with heavy heart. Hope that won’t happen as I will have to find another FDC. Only Wyeth comes close to it. Watching closely JB Chemicals on its recent development. Sorry for typo…submitting comments using my phone.
NHPC fits perfectly to Buffet’s metaphor of a toll bridge.I feelit has the following characteristics to think that it could be similar to operations of a toll bridge company
1). Initial capital expenditure for putting infrastructure in place
2). Then onwards revenuewillbe generated without anyraw material cost and negligible operational cost
3). Only depreciation and low level of maintenance cost will be incurred
NHPC will be a decent company to hold for long term as it would exist in business for years. Hydel power projects can be even operational beyond 100 years. Good dividend yield will ensure that investors are happy holding it for long.
Allocation is dependent on opporunities thrown by market except for ITC (which is a captain in my portfolio)
Today I tried evaluating my performance against benchmarks. This is how I fared.
Returns Year To Date
Top Fund (G)
I have under performed Tri-Nifty but outperformed funds (which I track). Year to date is a very short period to see if one is performing decently.
The idea of checking this is to see if at all my effort is translating into an alpha or still under performing indices or funds. If I under perform funds and indices then it is better to invest in them and relax else I will happy to make increased contribution to my portfolio from my investments marked for investing in Funds.
One thing which I can take consolation is, I have some contra bets and value stocks which cannot be compared with index constituents in shorter term. Same as the case with Fund Managers also who have their own picks which might give results in longer run :).
I have set my mind to be focused in my investing process irrespective of the market situation and as long as I am convinced about my picks, I hope it would give a fruitful result .
I am letting market decide my portfolio weightage and currently remain full invested.
It is almost 10 months since I started off with my portfolio version 2.0. PF is doing better than MF but not Tri-Nifty as rally which we see now is only on a few selected stocks as most of the stocks are still around 52 week lows.
Can Fin Homes
Initiated small positions in ITH, Ador, Pidilite and SJVN.
Except for Pidilite rest of those stocks appear attractive from valuation point of view with good dividend yield.
Colgate, Page and Torrent are in my radar but valuations are on the higher side. Waiting for suitable entry points.
Stovec Industries and Benares Hotels seem to be nice picks but need to study them a lot before making a confident entry into them.
Thanks Strong Brick for your suggestion. NHPC and BHEL are contra picks and are there for dividend yield qualities. The stocks you mentioned are good but only problem is I am SIP guy so these stocks moves a lot and I am not able to add them comfortably. So stocks like VST Tillers, Can Fin Homes are giving me opporunities every month to add them to my portfolio.
Another point is, to have real benefits from these stocks, I need to have a concentrated portfolio. Since I have diversified portfolio, growth in these stocks will not have much impact on my overall portfolio.
It is now one year after I have started off with NAV based tracking of my portfolio's performance.
One Year Performance
Can Fin Homes
Waiting for opportunities and time (stocks have to be attractive every month ) to increase allocation to the stocks in lower half of my portfolio.
Balmer Lawrie, BHEL and NHPC dragged the performance but I keep them for their dividend yields. BHEL is a pure contra play.
Colgate is at 52 week low. I am not able to buy KMCH, ITH and Ador Fontech easily as they are in PCAS. Suprajit is on steroids and not able to add to my initial position.
There is also one thread in Valuepickr which talks about betting on PSUs if BJP comes to power. My portfolio has lots of PSUs. Let me see if I am lucky or not, though I bought them only based on their valuations.
i see ITC & NHPC under performing markets in next couple of years. would strongly recommend private sector bank (HDFC , AXIS or yes) . b’cos they are thecompoundernone of two (ITC or NHPC) cancompoundfor next 5 years at their rate .
I agree. The below is the rationale behind my investment in ITC and NHPC.
Professionally managed FMCG company with zero promoter holding
Cigarette business is a cash-cow which would feed ITC’s aspiration in its other FMCG ventures
Distribution network is its moat and they are planning to use their network to push their sales
I don’t think even current markcap is a hindrance to its growth and dominance. There are tons of products which are yet to be branded in India. FMCG companies always innovate and find ways to come with something new. Classmate notebooks and school items are in reat demand. I personally spoke with several shopkeepers in KA and TN and they agreed that of late people started demanding branded notebook particularly Classmate.
Growing dividends every year is icing on the cake.
With all these positives, I can surely say this is the cheapest FMCG stock available in the market. If it is stagnant, I would be happy to add every month in SIP at almost constant rate.
It is a retirement stock and can emerge as one of the biggest FMCG company in the world.
This is a beaten down stock in a sector which is also beaten down.
You can relate this stock to a toll bridge (metaphor). There will be a huge initial cost incurred upfront to put the structure in place and once that is done, you will keep gettingcash flowsfrom it forever.
NHPC sets up hydel power plants which is a capital intensive with long gestation periods. Once a plant becomes operational, it will keep generating lots of cash flows forever. There would be no raw material cost and NHPC has to take care of only normal wear and tear.
Here I am getting NHPC at a price less than book value and markets have not factored in the translation of CWIP to meaningful revenue in future. All the negatives that one can point to, are already factored into the price.
It is like buying a real estate which would appreciate and also yield regular cash flow in the form of rent (dividend).
NHPC is also a kind of stock which you would know when to sell in case if it moves ahead of its fundamentals. I mean profit booking is easy in such stocks where as growth stocks you can’t be sure of when to exit.
Won’t you feel ING Vysya Bank,CUB won’t also be good picks like HDFC,AXIS and YES. Why I am saying this is, these banks focus on MSME segment while HDFC,AXIS and YES bank focus more on retail market. With slowing of new employmentopportunities, won’t these banks be affected? Also I see HDFC Bank has becomeaggressivethese days to push their credit cards and personal loans.
ITC’s earnings have grown by 18.5% in the last 9-10 years and price CAGR has been around 25%. In the best years of GDP growth, if the earnings growth has not touched 20%, it is fair to assume that it will be around 18% or lower in the next 5-10 years ( considering the size).So price CAGR should be close to 18% or lower. It is a good 17-18% CAGR bet but I doubt it can be 25% + bet that we generally aim to achieve.
Yes Sunil. Exactly that is my view. Please note here I am not expecting 25% CAGR at all. This is evident if you see my list of stocks. If ITC’s earnings growth is say 18% and 2% dividend yield will add to overall CAGR and it would be 20% CAGR which is very good as you can have good sleep and there will be lesser effort from our side.
What I mean to say here is if you are planning to invest small sums every month for your goals like retirement etc, then stocks like ITC are good. On the other hand, if you have sufficient sum for investment at go or a very small portfolio and look for an aggressive growth, then you can go for 25% growers with 2 to 3 years visibility.
Please remember steady compounders make sense only in a concentrated portfolio. If you plan for a concentrated portfolio, you have to be a very active investor and keep churning based on attractiveness and opportunities available.
Even Sensex had HDFC Bank, ITC etc but see what happened to the overall returns because of diversification. Since I am a diversified guy, I will be happy to grab 20% growing blue chips where there will be stability in growth.
Also a stock which doubles in 5 years time frame is a 20% compounder and should we need to worry whether it is because of fundamentals (growth in earnings like Page) or re-rating (beaten down and then recovery like SRF)
P.S: Since you are concerned about 25% you can think a stock doubling in 4 years.