Please do add sources like link to videos or articles when posting some thing like this, this builds credibility and allows us to check the point of view of management
They shared this in Bharat Connect conference, hosted by arihant capital . The recording is not shared to public yet, they may do so next month in their youtube channel.
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Q4 FY24 results
Rev up 18%, EBIDTA up 21% YoY
EPS at 11.3 vs 10.3 YoY
Value added products sale volumes increased
by 39% in FY24+Strong demand for critical steel bridge
+VE commentary for Defense+Aerospace arm (New facility progress under schedule)
CFO - (46 Cr) vs 65 Cr
Receivables saw a sharp hike, need to be tracked
FY24 EPS - 46.41 vs 33.31
Saw large volumes today in last 30 minutes. valuations doesn’t look stretched and with demand in future, I feel management is walking the talk.
whats everyone’s opinion on this?
Discloser : having tracking position, not any investment advice.
9 Likes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT6GbVMwA1Q nice interview
optionalities of hydrogen also being discussed
Disclaimer
- We are not sebi regd
- Educational post only, not an investment advice
- Plz consult your financial advisor before making any investments
8 Likes
- Q1 FY25 dispatches crossed 1 lakh ton for the first time
- Year-on-year growth of 17% in volume and 27% in profit
- Total operating income (standalone) of 904 crores in Q1 FY25 vs 846 crores in Q1 FY24
- EBITDA of 79.65 crores in Q1 FY25 vs 70.87 crores in Q1 FY24
- 17% year-on-year revenue growth
- EBITDA margin of 8.8% in Q1 FY25
- EBITDA per ton of Rs 8,350 in Q1 FY25 vs Rs 7,800 in Q1 FY24
- Value-added products contribute 57-58% of revenue
- Capacity utilization: Infrastructure 70-80%, Automobile tubes 80-85%, Solar 50-55%
- Expanding into defense sector with 155 mm gun shell production
- Commissioning new auto tube plant
- Focus on value-added products and sustainability
- Strong domestic demand in India
- Government focus on infrastructure spending
- Increasing demand in defense sector
- Logistics challenges in exports
- Price pressures
- New auto tube plant with 50,000 ton capacity commissioned
- Defense plant for 155 mm gun shells (1.5 lakh shells per annum) to be commissioned by March 2025
- Logistics challenges, container shortage
- Expected revenue of 4100 crores in FY25 and 4800 crores in FY26
- Auto tube plant expected to contribute 250 crores in FY25 and 500 crores in FY26
- Healthy order book reported
- Aiming for 15-20% growth
- 200 crore investment in auto tube plant
- 200 crore investment in defense plant
- Defense sector growth
- Infrastructure development
- China Plus One strategy benefiting Indian manufacturing
- Q: Impact of elections on business? A: There were some disruptions, but overall demand remained strong. Logistics issues affected exports.
- Q: Current total borrowing and future debt expectations? A: Total borrowing is 608 crores. May need more funds as production increases, but will try to manage within available means.
- Q: Value-added product contribution? A: 57-58% of revenue, with 17% year-over-year growth.
- Q: Auto tube plant details? A: Commissioning by September 1st. Expected revenue of 250 crores in FY25 and 500 crores in FY26.
- Q: Defense business details? A: Initially focusing on 155 mm shells. Capacity of 1.5 lakh shells per annum. Expected revenue of up to 300 crores.
- Q: EBITDA per ton? A: Around Rs. 8,350 per ton in Q1 FY25.
- Q: Timeline for becoming a billion-dollar revenue company? A: Target may be achieved by FY28 instead of FY27.
- Q: Capacity of new auto tube plant? A: 50,000 tons, increasing total capacity to around 4,50,000 tons.
- Q: Traction in solar fixtures and tubes? A: Good growth reported, but specific numbers not provided.
- Q: China Plus One impact? A: Positive impact on Indian manufacturing and infrastructure development.
- Q: Defense product range and competition? A: Initially focusing on shells. Competitors include government facilities and Baba Kalyani group.
- Q: Qualification requirements for defense production? A: Arms Act License required, application in process.
- Q: Export potential for defense products? A: Will supply to authorized exporters who will handle overseas sales as per government policy.
10 Likes
Management Guidance
GoodLuck India
-
15-20 % REV Growth
-
Margin Expansion by increase in VAP
-
Defence next big opportunity
2 Likes
One small doubt on ebitda per ton
Last Quarter management commented that the ebitda per ton is 8350 up from 7800. Kind of 500 per ton increase
When the same was asked in this quarter they are saying current quarter has 8100 per ton and his flat from previous quarter which is 8000 per ton
Any issue with this? As the both statements contradict each other
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Look like Ram is not sure of numbers.
1 Like
Value and good bet.
They can do PAT numbers of 180Cr and a PE of 18x i guess.
Looking forward a good and lucky H2. In Goodluck’s defense, its aggressive bet on defense subsidiary is anticipated to do good. After luck favors the good and the brave
2 Likes
GoodLuck India -
H1 FY 25 highlights -
Key Business segments -
Engineering structures and precision fabrications ( capacity @ 85k MTPA )
Forging products ( capacity @ 30k MTPA )
Precision Pipes ( capacity @ 120k MTPA )
CR Coils, Pipes and Tubes ( capacity @ 215k MTPA )
Manufacturing plants -
05 plants near Delhi
01 plant in Kutchh ( Gujarat )
05 major warehouses located @ Faridabad, Rudrapur, Ludhiana, Nahsik and Aurangabad
Domestic : Export break up of sales @ 74 : 26 ( vs 70 : 30 in PY )
Company’s key clients -
Auto tubes - BMW, VW, Skoda, Audi, Mercedes, GM, Renault, Toyota, Mahindra Electric, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, TVS, Ashok Leyland, Talbros, Gabriel, Suzuki
Forgings - L&T, RIL, IOL, Toshiba, Mitsubishi, BHEL, GE, Allied Group, Saint Gobain, Bharat Petroleum
Engineering Structures - GMR, ABB, L&T, RIL, Toshiba, TRF ( Tata group ), Power Grid
CR Coils and Tubes - various Public and private sector EPC players involved in infra build up in the country, state Govts, NHAI, Railways
Segment wise revenues -
CR sheets and pipes - 40 pc
Precision Pipes and Tubes - 24 pc
Forgings - 15 pc
Engineering structure - 21 pc
Future growth areas -
Defence and Aerospace - company has inaugurated a new Hydraulic tubes manufacturing Unit with an installed capacity of 50k MT @ Sikandrabad. These are highly specialised import substitution products for the defence ( aerospace ) industry
Q2 financial highlights -
Revenues - 976 vs 885 cr
EBITDA - 87 vs 73 cr ( margins @ 8.96 vs 8.32 pc )
PAT - 45 vs 34 cr
H1 financial highlights -
Revenues - 1889 vs 1470 cr
EBITDA - 165 vs 113 cr ( margins @ 8.74 vs 7.73 pc )
PAT - 79 vs 46 cr
Company did perform very well in Q2 despite sharp volatility in Steel prices in Q2 + sharply reduced Govt spending + Geo Political tensions causing reduced demand in the global markets
The new Hydraulic Tubes plant costed the company @ 200 cr. It has a capacity of 50k MTs. The plant is expected to commence commercial production in Q1 FY 26. This is a dedicated facility for the defence and aerospace Industry
Sales volume in H1 FY 24 stood @ 200k MT vs 183k MT in H1 FY 23
EBITDA / MT in Q2 stood @ Rs 8100. Company believes - if the volatility in Steel prices subsides, EBITDA / Ton should improve by 10 pc
Company business of manufacturing and supplying solar panel structures to various power/ infra / OEM players is witnessing robust demand trends. Same are likely to continue going fwd as well
Company had earlier guided for 20 pc topline growth for FY 25. Despite the headwinds in H1, they still maintain that they should be able to achieve a 15 pc topline growth for full FY 25. That simply means that H2 should be strong
Now that monsoons are over, Indian + US elections are behind - Expect far better H2. As such, H2 is always better for the company vs H1
Company expects to achieve optimum capacity utilisation of their Hydraulics manufacturing plant inside 2 yrs. Then they plan to double this capacity. This particular line of products have huge tailwinds. These hydraulic products also find applications in the construction Industry
Comapny has got orders for supply of materials worth 22k MT for the Bullet Trains project. Company has completed production of aprox 65 pc of the material which should now get supplied to L&T over next 8-9 months
The CR coils and sheets business is a steady volume ( no growth ), low margins business for the company. They have committed clients for their products. They have been doing this for 25 yrs. Aim to continue to do the same. But this is not a growth area
Company is slated to supply 155mm Arty Gun shells to IA. They were earlier imported. Company intends to supply 1.5 lakh shells - to begin with. That should have a revenue potential of aprox 300-350 cr
Company expects their defence business to generate 20 pc kind of EBITDA margins. Currently, it contributes to only 2 pc of their topline. This is expected to start to ramp up wef next FY
Disc: hold a small tracking position, will ramp up position size / dump the stock depending on their H2 performance, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes
11 Likes
Goodluck India -
Q3 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 942 vs 878 cr, up 7 pc
EBITDA - 82 vs 75 cr ( margins @ 8.76 vs 8.62 pc )
PAT - 41 vs 32 cr, up 26 pc ( PAT margins @ 4.24 vs 3.61 pc )
Key Business segments -
Engineering structures and precision fabrications ( capacity @ 85k MTPA )
Forging products ( capacity @ 30k MTPA )
Precision Pipes ( capacity @ 120k MTPA )
CR Coils, Pipes and Tubes ( capacity @ 215k MTPA )
Manufacturing plants -
05 plants near Delhi
01 plant in Kutchh ( Gujarat )
05 major warehouses located @ Faridabad, Rudrapur, Ludhiana, Nahsik and Aurangabad
Domestic : Export break up of sales @ 74 : 26 ( vs 70 : 30 in PY )
Company’s key clients -
Auto tubes - BMW, VW, Skoda, Audi, Mercedes, GM, Renault, Toyota, Mahindra Electric, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, TVS, Ashok Leyland, Talbros, Gabriel, Suzuki
Forgings - L&T, RIL, IOL, Toshiba, Mitsubishi, BHEL, GE, Allied Group, Saint Gobain, Bharat Petroleum
Engineering Structures - GMR, ABB, L&T, RIL, Toshiba, TRF ( Tata group ), Power Grid
CR Coils and ERW Tubes - various Public and private sector EPC players involved in infra build up in the country, state Govts, NHAI, Railways
Segment wise revenues for 9M FY 25 -
CR sheets and pipes - 36 pc
Precision Pipes and Tubes - 26 pc
Forgings - 15 pc
Engineering structure - 26 pc
Future growth areas - Defence and Aerospace - company has inaugurated a new Hydraulic tubes manufacturing Unit with an installed capacity of 50k MT. These are highly specialised import substitution products for the defence ( aerospace ) industry. This plant has completed trial runs and has commenced production wef Jan. This plant has the capacity to generate revenues of upto 300 cr / yr by FY 27
Company’s business mainly caters to sectors like - Automobiles, Construction, Railway bridges, oil and gas, Solar and other renewable energy forms with Defence as the latest addition
Total capacity stands @ 4.5 lakh MT, slated to go upto 5 lakh MT in Q4
In the Auto sector, company mainly caters to Car body tubes, 2W and PV - shocker tubes ( Tesla is also a customer )
Aim to do yearly revenues of 4500 cr by FY 26
Company is slated to supply 155mm Arty Gun shells to IA. They were earlier imported. Company intends to supply 1.5 lakh shells - to begin with. That should have a revenue potential of aprox 300-350 cr. The supplies are expected to begin wef Q2 FY 26
Company expects a major ramp up of their LDP ( large diameter plant for Auto Tubes ) wef Q1 next FY - this plant also have a revenue potential of aprox 500 cr per year ( can be achieved wef FY 27 ). This plant was commissioned in Jan and has added 50k MT to company’s total capacity ( taking it upto 5 lakh MT )
In the 9M FY 25, company has achieved a volume growth of 13 pc. Topline growth is lower because of fall in steel prices
Most of the growth that company is seeing and hopes for in the future is coming from / or is going to come from Infra, Auto, Defence, Oil & Gas sectors. Not expecting any substantial growth from ERW tubes / CR coils
The CR coils and sheets business is a steady volume ( no growth ), low margins business for the company. They have committed clients for their products. They have been doing this for 25 yrs. Aim to continue to do the same. But this is not a growth area
Disc: holding, biased, added recently, not SEBI registered, not a buy / sell recommendation
12 Likes
Q3 FY25 Concall short notes:
- Rev: 7.25%, PAT: 26%, EPS: 4.1% (YoY).
- FY26: 4500cr rev + defense rev (~150cr).
- Mgmt sticks to 15-20% vol guidance for FY25. (Rev% may be lower due to lesser steel prices)
- Defense unit starts production in Q2’26. (150cr in FY26, 250-300cr rev in FY27 at 25% EBIDTA)
- Hydraulic tube plant started (500cr rev in '26).
3 Likes
A clarificaiton please - Is the hydraulic tube plant expcted to acieve optimal utilisation in FY27 (as highlighted by previous participants’ notes) or FY26?
Thanks
. The sales are 2.5X from Mar-20 to Mar-24 (1600 cr to 3525 cr), profits are also 2.5X as the company has constant OPM of 8% (128 cr to 282 cr) but the stock price/market cap is up from 150 crore to 2250 crore which is almost 15 times - driven by the P/E expansion from 5 to 15 which is 3X
Looking at common size analysis looks like further growth in sales due to increased capex and fall in raw material prices could be key to future prices. There has been huge capex of 195 crore in Mar 24 and this indicates future sales growth could drive more upside to stock if they can hold margins
2 Likes