Going Full time into Investing

Investment Learning
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AJAXENGG Q4/FY26 Review

The Good: Ajax proved the business model is very resilient. Q4 revenue was flat YoY at ~₹758 Cr, EBITDA rose 4% and PAT rose 4.4%, despite a 7% drop in SLCM volumes. Market share recovered to 73.5%, and cash generation is exceptional with FY26 OCF/EBITDA at 141.9% and cash balance at ₹1,121 Cr.

The Bad: FY26 was still a soft year overall. Revenue was only +1.4% YoY, EBITDA fell 16% and PAT fell 13% because of CEV-V cost inflation and weaker execution in a capex-slow year. This is a Govt infra capex linked cyclical business, not a smooth compounder.

Valuation: At roughly 30x P/E, Ajax is not cheap. You’re paying up for ROCE, cash flow and market leadership, so upside depends on a real volume upcycle.

Holding and will add on dips if its get a derating closer to low 20s P/E, or there is clear evidence of double digit volume growth returning with margins holding ~13–15%. It’s a great niche infra leader with elite cash flow and ROCE

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CLEAN Q4/FY26 Review

The Good: Operational resilience is clearly visible. Q4 EBITDA margins bounced back strongly to ~33% consolidated (46% standalone). The new HALS segment hit record volumes, and backward integration into HQ/Catechol is paying off with the Fino-Chem subsidiary finally turning EBITDA positive.

The Bad: Top-line growth remains incredibly sluggish. 5-year sales CAGR is <10%, and Q4 revenue is still down ~5% YoY. Worse, working capital days have ballooned from 144 to 242, and sustained promoter selling (stake down ~27% over 3 years) remains a glaring overhang.

Valuation: At a P/E of ~34x and mid-teens ROE, the stock is pricing in a growth re-acceleration that hasn’t materialized yet. You are paying a premium multiple for a mid-single-digit grower.

Holding and not adding for now, remains a niche business with great margins, Lets see if promoters can deliver on growth and their interests are aligned.

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SAREGAMA Q4/FY26 Review

The Good: The core music IP engine is compounding beautifully! Q4 adj. EBITDA hit a record ₹133 Cr (+31% YoY). FY26 Music EBITDA grew 22%. Huge points for capital discipline: management killed low ROE in-house films, locked in a smart Bhansali partnership, and walked away from overpriced music rights.

The Bad: Headline FY26 consolidated revenue fell 16% YoY. While this is a deliberate portfolio cleanup (exiting video, high FY25 base from a one-off Diljit tour), the optical drop is sharp. Also, the new Live Events IP (UN40) will drag until its expected breakeven in FY28.

Valuation: De-rated from its historical High P/E, but at ~36x P/E for a 13% ROE business, it’s still priced for perfection. You are paying a premium for India’s 20-year streaming runway.

Will Add only on serious dips, remains a high-quality, long-term IP compounder with improving ROCE.

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INDOTECH Q4/FY26 Review

The Good: Stupendous FY26! Revenue +30% YoY, PAT +45% YoY (₹93 Cr). Elite capital efficiency with ~38% ROCE and an almost debt-free balance sheet. SSEL parent synergies are driving real margin expansion.

The Bad: The biggest red flag, there is still ~77% promoter pledging, which introduces tail risk and caps the multiple.

Valuation: It already more than doubled from our buying level, now richly priced now at ~29x P/E and ~7x P/B after a massive multi-year run.

Holding and will wait to add more if needed. It is a fantastic compounder so far for the T&D/renewables boom, Currently maxed out, but a massive internal capex plan will double capacity from 9,500 MVA to 20,000 MVA by FY28. They are moving up the value chain into Large Power Transformers (165 MVA) & renewable skid-mounted substations.

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The US-Iran war is still in limbo. Every day, we hear of a potential ceasefire, and then a Drone goes and blasts something to shatter that hope soon enough. Markets have recovered from the start of the financial year when I launched my portfolio. Mid and smallcaps have been outperforming since. As a result, the portfolio is doing well given the uncertain circumstances we are in. Q426 Results are encouraging. Crude is down quite a bit, and Rs is finding some support. US markets are at an all time high, so maybe we are finally going to get some good news soon, fingers crossed.

Portfolio update:

Equity is up 31% since launch (31st March 2026), thanks to the outperformance of smallcaps, which makes my portfolio primarily.

We have another Multibagger after IndoTech doubled last month, it’s UFBL (Barbeque Nation), which is up 150% since.

So now we have:

Top 3 Performers: UFBL (150%), Indotech (125%), Rategain (69%)

Low performer: None of the stocks gave a negative return since launch. However, Indiamart is the lowest performer, which has been flat since.

Debt is up marginally, as the 10-year G-sec yield is still flirting with 7%.

Churn: None, haven’t added anything as well.

Trade: The IT trade, as shared, is turning out okay for now, up 5% since. Time will tell if it’s a value trap or a real value.

Personally, it’s been a good ride since, lots of reading and consuming content, not just about finance or investments, but on History/Psychology/Geopolitics, etc.

I am reading this book, Thinking in Bets, by Annie Duke, and I would recommend it as a must read for everyone. It’s about how to navigate life and make smarter decisions when you don’t Have All the Facts.

Let’s see what next Month will bring when we end our first quarter. Will the war finally end, or will it keep on lingering? Hope better sense prevails, and we have good times ahead.

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Here is the relevent thread for full time investing:

@Capt_Cool please, May be u add Portillo name also to this thread

I will delete this post later as it adds no value here