GNFC - The big becoming bigger!

I dont understand what you are implying…

What do u mean by higher short term borrowings??
As of h1, the current borrowings have been reduced drastically from 1073cr at march end to 401cr at sept end…
The working capital requirement has come down from 800cr plus in fy17 to 600cr in h1 to presently about 300cr as mentioned in the recent interview…
What else do u need from all the cash flow generation?
533cr of long term debt also wiped off…

U seem to be posting just for the sake of it, thats why a fellow boarder has asked you very politely to refer to earlier posts if that can help u with info…
We have already discussed all these basic issues number of times…

Regarding CSR, please post references which i asked of u to effect and link gnfc with suspicision, not gossip stories…specially when management is in denial…
If u have had read previous posts , we always back our speculation with references…

I dont understand what you tried to express there, but we are only saying neem revenues are yet to show up…and which is not a red flag as yet…
U mentioned nothing except a CSR gossip as a red flag…

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Thank you for the small amusement u gave us …

After all we came to know about cows…
We were researching too muh deep into annual reports, tdi global and indian markets n all, that we had forgot about cows…

Its feels good atleast some one is there to notify us , if gnfc starts purchasing cows instead of touluene…

Good luck to you too sir!
And oh btw, there is a thing called financial statements, it is released every three monthly , in that there are numbers, which are disclosed to SEBI… the numbers i mentioned had been taken from there only, not some news article…

To all fellow boarders, this is an issue, honestly :grin:… We need to start doing dcf analysis to find out the intrinsic value of cows, 10000cows is not a joke, it can put a dent on our expenses if purchased…
If anyone has any idea, on the valuation of cows plz help us with the expense number which this can generate, we need to price in this in our forward multiples…
Disclaimer… Invested

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This is Fake news.
GNFC has clarified via Twitter.

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TDI Prices increased by Rs. 10/kg. Current price @ 310/Kg. This is getting interesting now. Difficult to predict a trend.

Regards,
Suhag

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Here is some Chinese TDI news after a long long time…!!

http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=70490

surprisingly more than the supply the demand has weakened in PMDI which has triggered a massive decline in Polymeric MDI prices to 15month low…
http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=70694

Last week report on china tdi prices…
“prices remain in the range from stable to soft”
[no figures found]

I will request help to analyse the development in china and how will it be affecting the international prices, if, at all…

An old report for future references…

And a very nice report for our chemical industry as a whole…
http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=70868

Please help me analyse the effects of a withdrawal of antidumping duty in china both locally and globally?

GNFC partners with Sleepwell to develop PU mattresses for the rural masses. Its getting interesting now. Considering the TDI capacity they have this seems logical if implemented well.

Regards,
Suhag

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This looks more like part of their CSR initiative (like Neem products). “We are in the process of evolving methods for coating mattresses with neem oil, which is known for its insecticidal properties,” gushes the GNFC MD. With its name now synonymous with several neem oil byproducts including soaps, shampoos, face wash, hair oil and mosquito repellents, all of which are doing brisk business, its foray into mass consumption and neem-coated mattresses would only add to the fertiliser major’s already impressive list of best-sellers.

I don’t see this project going anywhere at least in next 3-5 years. They have been doing “neem this neem that” from quite some time. Where has it gone? FMCG play is a different ballgame altogether.

I hope they remain focused on what they are doing, improve fertilizer business efficiencies, and come up with a good expansion plan.

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Neem is certainly not a CSR if they can execute what they have been saying. 500Cr revenue in next 3 years can’t be a CSR activity. The only thing we need to track is if they walk the talk or not.

They had a target of 50Cr revenue from neem products for FY18 and going by recent interview of CMD they should be able to achieve it. Results and concall of Q4 should give a clear picture on that.

Regards,
Suhag

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Suhag - How i look at things. These guys have 5200 cr rev. If they achieve 500 cr in 3 years (which i highly doubt), it would still be less than 10% of the overall revenue. Neem is a theme which they started as CSR and want to take it to the next level, but it has been quite some time (they have been giving targets), but haven’t come up with a plan, margin profile and stuff. So, i do not want to pay heed to it even if it is a success in a few years. It will hardly contribute in next 5 years.

Need something substantial to add big to rev/pat in % terms.

One more thing - Mr. Gupta seems like a guy who likes to be a cynosure. So many interviews, so much media attention; tell me one other PSU which has been so much media savvy. This guy has been a success due to TDI up-cycle.

Don;t take this criticism personally. Just my two cents, mate.

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Mridul - There is nothing personal. Don’t worry about that. Criticism always helps if its constructive. I can’t analyze a company the way you guys do on this forum. I am still learning and all these different view points help to shape up my knowledge.

You are spot on when you say they are becoming media savvy. In fact that was the first thing which came to my mind when i saw the mattress article. Recently CNBC TV18 also traveled there to do interview of CMD and these things have gone up in recent past. Good thing is they are still delivering on their core business (considering chemical as core along with fertilizer).

Eagerly waiting for their expansion plans now as they are debt free.

Regards,
Suhag

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On personal care products development I have some update from vendors involved in supplying raw material/helping in development/some scuttlebutt.
Total 10 products in this cat
Shampoo, soap and hand wash already in the market. Body lotion, body cream, body scrub, hand sanitizer, baby oil, shaving cream and there is one more that has slipped out of my mind.
Getting good feedback on the R&D team quality and their energy.
On distribution front hearing that they want to tie up with Amul and make GNFC products available at all Amul outlets. This can be a big plus.

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This is good development if happens…

Thanks @typebharat for sharing the feedback. Would it be possible for you to talk to your contacts to find out the kind of margins GNFC has in this segment. As per them they have opened more than 20K+ stores/parlous for Neem product. Its a sizable number so if we can get some idea on margins then it will be easy to do some analysis there.

There are many Neem stores/parlors in Ahmedabad. Any views on how the model works, margins etc from VP members in Ahmedabad is highly appreciated.

Regards,
Suhag

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What is the expectation in Q4 results (in terms of revenue & net profit)?

Some more info on the Neem products distribution network.

Blockquote

One of our strategic plans in the Neem Project has been the forward and backward integration of the business and therefore we have spread our wings far and wide to states like Maharashtra, MP, UP, Rajasthan etc. We have been able to make landmark progress in seed collection and product marketing in these states. With the KVIC unit, we intend to cover more than 7000 khadi outlets across India. GNFC has also opened first of its kind Neem Stores and Neem Parlours in various cities of Gujarat. We also supply Neem Products to more than 1500 outlets of Central Police Canteens across India and will soon also be supplying to more than 3000 defence canteens of the Canteen Stores Department (CSD). We also supply to around 100 Kendriya Bhandars in Delhi,” said Gupta.

He further added, “We are also shortly entering into agreement with the Department Of Posts for sale of the Neem Products from the Post office counters across Gujarat. Based on the initial response, the Post office model will be replicated in other states. We are also in an advanced stage for exporting the products to the US and Gulf countries.”

Neem parlour is another innovative and out of the box idea from GNFC. It has opened 17 company-owned outlets and 24 garden parlours in Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot. The company has lined up plans to increase its footprint to nearly 40 stores and 40 parlours. It is also exploring options to introduce the franchisee model and would have a uniform design in line with our own Neem Stores and Neem Parlours, Gupta pointed out.

Blockquote

http://www.mydigitalfc.com/fc-supplements/roar/repositioning-brand-value

Regards,
Suhag

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I just had a glance at the results. GNFC has closed FY18 on a high, with a consolidated EPS of 51.15. The balance looks stronger than ever, with repayment of debt and no material increase in receivables and inventory.
Disc: Invested

Regards
SJ

Excellent results
https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=c05e5f2f-0ecb-4144-8be3-5282b0c838dd
Debt free nearly 1400 cr operating profit 800 cr net profit with no contribution from fertiliser segment even considering the cyclical nature of TDI price in the coming qtr this company should command a decent market cap of above 9000 to 10000 cr which will be still working to 7 to 7.5 EVE BIT and at present ROE stands nearly at 20% and at the present CMP the PE is less than 8.5 so even at a normal 15 PE the price should be above 750 and will be 2.5 times book value of 285 hope for some re rating
Disl invested

Overall great set of numbers. Last year they had exceptional item of Rs. 292 crores. This quarters the numbers are without any exceptional item. EPS of Rs. 51 for the entire year is above all estimates. Fertilizer segment posting loss is a negative. Should check how recently launched DBT will help fertilizer sector. Other income (IT and others) also halved which is not good.

Now company needs to come out clearly with capex and future expansion plan.

Dividend of Rs. 7.5 is 50% higher than last year.

Can someone help me to understand what is Sr. No 10 “Other Comprehensive income”?

Regards,
Suhag

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Re-rating should happen in this counter.
But going fwd what are mgt plans in order to maintain pace of growth?
Can anyone throw light on their fertilizer business , why they are into losses n whether it is possible to turn it into a profitable business?