GMM Pfaudler: A safe way to play the Pharma/Chemical cycle

The performance of the company’s stock price is very weird, it has not really moved since the covid crash, but whereas the NP CAGR and Sales CAGR have outperformed the stock price, anyone wonder why?

Probably it ran more than it should in everything bubble and now in time correction. One can always observe most of the chemical stocks were in multi year consolidation phase prior to 2020 esp. COVID era darlings. We never know when they will break out again. Especially now that Chinese factories are back online they are exporting their deflation mainly in all commodities. This is hurting our companies as well.

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the stock was very overvalued back in 2021 or so when it peaked. A capital good can not command 50-60 PE multiple. It’s just that the earnings are finally catching up to the stock performance. Its fairly valued now I think

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Earnings have been in negative growth from last few quarters. Order backlog is falling from almost an year. New order intake is lower than the revenue, for the last quarter order intake is around 750 crore while revenue is 850 crore. Unless the order intake shows growth there is no way stock price can move up.

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