Q4 call based Future outlook Upside triggers for mgmt guidelines of FY24 2800 Cr revenue and 16% EBDITA -
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GMM standalone performance to continue at similar rates of last few years i.e. Revenue 25-30% CAGR - i.e. FY 21 Revenue of 650 Cr to 1300-1500 Cr + 300-400 Cr of topline from recent acquisition in Vatva (mgmt agreed in concall that guidance will be revised to include this acquisition as it was post initial guidance) - for FY 24 we are looking at 1600 to 1900Cr number from standalone business from India + Mavag.
at current margin profile(EBDITA of 25%) this would translate into 240 to 280 Cr PAT in FY 24 -
International Biz - there were lot of Questions on future margin profile of acquired biz - two months of pflauder is run rate in this year (Feb & march) is Approx 120 Cr/mo revenue run rate - with a very low margin profile of single digit. If we go by Mavag acquisition history - the EBDITA margin profile currently stands at 15-16% - mgmt call out to participants of same tells that they would be looking at similar trajectory of margin improvement in coming years for acquired biz , and a modest revenue growth rate (they did 8% this year) of 10-12% range i.e. 1400 cr FY 21 revenue at 8-9% EBDITA - moving to FY24 at 1800 Cr at 14 -15% EBDITA - i.e. 150 to 200Cr PAT
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FY 24 View summary - strictly back of envelope calculations
India + Mavag +Vatva - Revenue of 1600 to 1900 Cr , Ebdita 25%, PAT 240 to 280Cr
Pflauder/Int biz - Revenue of 1800-1900 Cr at , 14 -15% EBDITA - i.e. 150 to 200Cr PAT
Consol Potential is - Total 3400 Cr to 3800 Cr revenue, 18% EBDITA and 390 Cr to 480Cr PAT
Management Guidance as of now is 2800 Cr Revenue at 16% EBDITA ( vatva to be added)
Current market cap is 7000 cr, Business has technology Moat and thus entry barriers, has tailwinds of sector (Pharma/chem/Heavy engg…), very long growth runway with quality management …
One of participant asked question about next quarter guidance - for which Tarak gave a long answer - IMO this tells a lot about management thinking, vision and aspirations
Invested