Hi all,
I happened to find valuepickr a few months ago. I have been a silent reader for quite some time now. Found this a very high quality site. I would like to share my portfolio. (in % terms)
Page 26.95
Hawkins 26.11
Titan 18.63
HDFC Bank 7.76
Dabur 6.44
GSK Consumer 5.29
IndusInd Bank 5.22
Bajaj Finance 1.90
TBZ 1.70
Any feedback/suggestions from the senior members would be greatly appreciated.
Looks like a high quality concentrated portfolio which can deliver market beating returns.
Only problem I see is that a lot of TED guys might be holding similar portfolios and hence any signs of trouble in any of the top three stocks might cause a virtual stampede to get out.
titan after having done nothing for quite a while now seems to be breaking out.
Hawkins we know about its troubles and prospects.
Page is a consistent stock a la virat kohli.
Rest of stocks also are decent bets.
overall I think this is a portfolio which should deliver a cagr of 20-25% or so provided there are no hiccups in any of the top three stocks.
Hi Hitesh bhai,
I have bought Oct Call@280 for Titan expecting breakout above 265 … But now stock has reversed and look likes going back to 245-240 … I am stuck now … should Isquare offmy call position
samir,
Ideal thing after a breakout is to wait patiently for the stock to come back and test its previous resistance which now will act as support. Then buy a position.
Specifically regarding titan, I think 250-255 which was earlier a stiff resistance should provide some support.
Regarding call, I dont have any views as there are two negatives in doing options:
first is the premium which u pay which is often exorbitant and other is time decay. Options are best played in the last 1-2 weeks of a series so that nearer to expiry the premiums have come down.
Best thing is to avoid f&o altogether unless it is to hedge the portfolio.
Thanks a lot Hitesh for your inputs.
Added V-Guard,Kajaria,V-Guard and Unichem. Also increased most of the core holdings. Struggling with the overall portfolio allocation since my wife is strictlyagainstequity investment. Not been able to convince her. Currently its more or less the equal allocation. ie about 33% in equity, 33% in debt basedinvestments and33% in land (not the house living in. also its all inherited. idon’tlike real estate at all). current strategy is to put all my monthly salary into equity and all my wife’s salary into debt based instruments. mycurrent debt investment takes care of our living expenses. (more than that). i have 0 debt. but recently opened a LAS account forliquidity. however ihaven’tused it yet.
i would appreciate valuable comments/feedback from the seniors.
It seems the same story repeats all over India. Add me to the list of guys whose better half is strictly against equity investing 
Added V-Guard,Kajaria,V-Guard strictlyagainstequity basedinvestments and33% idon’tlike mycurrent forliquidity. however ihaven’tused
Indian wives will always want their hubbies bet on gold or real estate … in the hope that they will eventually get involved 
. You cannot even counter them since gold and real estate have hugely outperformed anyway
no woman wants to see her husband spending all his time on business channels, pink newspapers and research or annual reports and smiling or cursing at unknown people ;)… like a compulsive gambler … esp because it tends to be a daily never ending process …and they dont even get to see the fruits of labour…
I know the question is for Hitesh. Since I know a little bit about options, I thought I would respond to the query.
If you are bullish on the stock please use bull call spread - buy a lower strike call and sell a higher strike call which would reduceyour cost price. This will help in recovering part of the premium paid. I think option premium is high in Indian F & O market, so it is usually better to be on the sell side by selecting the right strike.
Isquare offmy call position
its troubles and prospects.
covered call writing (deep) will give some additional returns to liquid steady performers like titan, hdfc twins… provided you have them in the portfolio
Diversified or concentrated dilemma.
I was digging the market cap increase over the past 10 years for the well known companies in the sectors private banking, NBFC, FMCG, Pharma, Consumer (including the building construction material like asian,cera etc). To my surprise, 15 to 20 bagger looked a very a average return in that list considering most of them gave a lot more. We cant expect the same considering that market cap back then was very small . I will be more than happy with around 4 to 5 times in 10 years. I have added all the companies to my watch list and its nearly 50 companies (;- with most of them trading near the median P/E. This has really confused me. I never thought there would be so many options. I don’t know what buy. After the recent titan developments, I am considering a wide diversified portfolio. Does anybody have a diversified portfolio of around 20-25 companies?. Can you share the experience?.
Hi Gautham,
I have a small investing experience of 19 odd month. In this time I have tried both concentrated (8-10 stocks) and diversified investment strategy (15-20 stocks). In any strategy you will have higher allocation to high conviction stock and lower allocation to low conviction stock.
What happens with me that whenever a high conviction stocks undergoes correction in time-wise (like Astral), or price wise (like Ajanta did when it dived to 800 odd level), I end up selling my low conviction stocks to load up big time in high conviction stock, and after sometime they goes up :). So I end up having a top-heavy portfolio with top 3-4 stock taking 50% odd of my portfolio.
On return wise, I see no reason why there should be difference between concentrated diversified strategy stock return. The stock return should be entirely depend upon how well you can choose stocks, and how well you can time buying/selling decisions.
As far as Titan is concerned, the issue is with the commodity called GOLD, and the its pervasive use as global financial instrument, which makes its price tied to 100s of variables. If you can correctly guess when will china start selling its gold reserve, or how fed’s QE will effect GOLD price, or say hows its price will get effected by next big global crises/boom, than investing in gold, or gold related companies makes sense. Well, some of my friend doesn’t agree that Titan/Jewelery stocks have very less to do with gold price fluctuation, but frankly I don’t know whether there is correlation or not, and hence a strict avoid for me.
Regards,
-Subash
Hi Subash
Thanks a lot for sharing that. Enjoyed reading that. In fact I have had a similar issue. ( But my selling was not influenced by price not moving. But my conviction level changed after buying ). In the past I sold Ajanta, Astral, Godrej Consumer, Kajaria, Lupin, TTK, Marico, Pidilite, Mayur, Page with small profit or just after crossing buying price). Since then, some of them have gone up multiple times and the rest have given very high returns). The only thing that worked was getting out of Manapuram finance around 70.
I agree with you that it all depends on the stock selection and buy/sell at the right time and off curse the allocation. But I was just thinking of a slightly different approach. I plan to play it in my new demat account. Lets see how it goes.
1). It would be a buy and hold kind of a portfolio.
2). around 25 stocks or may be less. (fmcg, consumption, pharma, private banking, nbfc)
3). Allocation will be more or less the same.
4). TTM P/E in the historical P/E band range
5). Consistent sales, eps growth in the past. zero or low debt, good return ratios, no equity dilution (except financial). has a strong moat.
6). decent earning visibility for a few years.
7). no corporate governance related issues in the past
Hi Gautham,
If you invest in high quality lesser known midcap like Astral/Ajanta, #4 doesn’t hold good for long. Because of consistent growth and increasing market cap, big guys enter the script and a pe re-rating happens. So TTM PE breaches historical mark to achieve new levels. You should be well aware of the above fact before making investing decision.
Regarding #3, there is a valuepickr thread on portfolio allocation. For me %age allocation is directly proportional to
in the stock.
Regards,
-Subash
Hi Subash
1).
2).
3).
4).
5).
6).
Yes Subash. It doesn’t hold for such stories. The assumption is that P/E re rating has already happened since most of them are generally discovered…
I have moved to a diversified portfolio. My plan is to hold < 30 no of stocks at any point in time. Although it has worked really well, I must admit I got lucky. Because most of the stocks have become market favorites and valuation is stretched. Here is the latest portfolio in the order of allocation. (I couldn’t get the % allocation. Will post later)
1). Page
2). Hawkins
3). Gruh
4). HDFC Bank
5). Dabur
6). Indusind
7). Lupin
8). Kajaria
9). GSK Consumer
10). Astral
11). Bajaj Finance
12). Cera
13). Unichem Labs
14). Titan
15). Symphony
16). Sun Pharma
17). Repco
18). Kaveri Seed
19). Ajanta Pharma
20). ITC
21). Bluedart
22). Colgate
23). Supreme Industries
24). Amararaja
25). Atul Auto
Closely watching and not bought yet. 1. Eicher Motors. 2. Avanti Feeds. 3. Westlife Development (Mcdonald’s franchise in south and east india)
Re posting with allocation and returns
| Scrip | Allocation | Returns | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Page | 29 | 96 |
| 2 | Hawkins | 15 | 1 |
| 3 | Gruh | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | HDFC Bank |
5 | 29 |
| 5 | Dabur | 5 | 38 |
| 6 | Indusind | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Lupin | 4 | 5 |
| 8 | Kajaria | 4 | 42 |
| 9 | GSK Consumer |
4 | 54 |
| 10 | Astral |
2.5 | 41 |
| 11 | Bajaj Finance |
2.5 | 21 |
| 12 | Cera | 2 | 46 |
| 13 | Unichem Labs | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Titan | 2 | -6 (Have booked 27% profits) |
| 15 | Symphony | 2 | 46 |
| 16 | Sun Pharma |
2 | 8 |
| 17 | Repco | 2 | -2 |
| 18 | Kaveri Seed |
1.5 | 49 |
| 19 | Aajanta Pharma |
1.5 | 1 |
| 20 | ITC | 1 | 2 |
| 21 | Bluedart | 1 | 34 |
| 22 | PI Industries |
0.6 | -1 |
| 23 | Colgate |
0.6 | 9 |
| 24 | Supreme Industries | 0.5 | 2 |
| 25 | Amararaja | 0.4 | 12 |
| 26 | Atul Auto |
-5 |
Wow. I never saw a portfolio with 26 stocks with all names worth investing. It took me 15-20 mins to calculate net returns. I got confused. And then i decided to drop the idea of calculating net returns.
I like your allocation to Page. Keep it up. I think Page will add the highest amount of money to your portfolio with that allocation.
Personally I prefer to hold 5-6 or a maximum of 7 stocks in the portfolio. But the list you have is good list. May be you can track it but don't need to invest in all.
| Scrip | Allocation | Returns | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Page | 29 | 96 |
| 2 | Hawkins | 15 | 1 |
| 3 | Gruh | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | HDFC Bank | 5 | 29 |
| 5 | Dabur | 5 | 38 |
| 6 | Indusind | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Lupin | 4 | 5 |
| 8 | Kajaria | 4 | 42 |
| 9 | GSK Consumer | 4 | 54 |
| 10 | Astral | 2.5 | 41 |
| 11 | Bajaj Finance | 2.5 | 21 |
| 12 | Cera | 2 | 46 |
| 13 | Unichem Labs | 2 | 11 | 14 | Titan | 2 | Symphony | 2 | 46 |
| 16 | Sun Pharma | 2 | 8 |
| 17 | Repco | 2 | -2 |
| 18 | Kaveri Seed | 1.5 | 49 |
| 19 | Aajanta Pharma | 1.5 | 1 |
| 20 | ITC | 1 | 2 |
| 21 | Bluedart | 1 | 34 |
| 22 | PI Industries | 0.6 | -1 |
| 23 | Colgate | 0.6 | 9 |
| 24 | Supreme Industries | 0.5 | 2 |
| 25 | Amararaja | 0.4 | 12 |
| 26 | Atul Auto | -5 |
Thanks a lot surya. I forgot to mention valuepickr and the old TED. The sheer quality of posts is unmatched.
You are right that there are way to many stocks. But its by design. 2.5 years ago, I converted my portfolio to a concentrated portfolio. During this time, I sold out a lot of stocks early. Hence I missed multibaggers in Astral,Ajanta,Kajaria,Mayur and 2 baggers (more or less) in Relaxo,VST Tillers,Pidilite, Lupin, JB chemical, Piramal. ( I reentered most of them recently). Also, saw some of the stocks in watch list (kaveri, atul, repco, amaraja, cera etc do very well in the same period). At the same time, my portfolio was dragged by the unperformance of hawkins and volatilty of financials. Thats why I decided to reenter most of the stocks. Then I was influenced by Peter Lynch’s classification of stocks. For me slow growers, cyclicals, turnarounds, asset plays are a no. I wanted to focus on only stalwarts and fast growers.
1). Stalwarts: Dabur,GSK Consumer, ITC,Colgate, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank etc.
I decided to break fast growers into two
2.a: Fast growers with high conviction: Page, Gruh, Lupin etc
2.b: Fast growers with low to medium conviction: The rest. Since the conviction is not high, there are way too many here. Even if something goes wrong, the damage will be minimal. Also, over a period of time, some stocks in this category will be promoted to 2.a.
I would love to hear your opinion/feedback.
Please read my posts in this thread:
http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/portfolio-q-a/203932770
Ask as many questions you can. We will take it from there.
