FINANCIALISATION: TSUNAMI expected in AMC & Insurance?

@zygo23554
nothing specific from me in this regard. i’ve done some basic checks speaking with people using it and to me the narrative fits. anyways, if i have any further questions which i cant verify - i will reach out to you. and thank-you for the kind offer.

but, just to make sure you look at bse before anything else on your list. :slight_smile: i would like to highlight

  1. (in crs) 3k mcap. 2.3/4k cash on book. off which 1.6/7k unencumbered. off which about 0.4k being returned to shareholders as a buyback (rs 680). 29th july is the record date. this is in addition to the 5% div yield.
  2. owns 24% of cdsl + bse building.
  3. has about 2k companies only listed on bse(as opposed to co-listed in nse). small/micro cap names. this constitutes the major part of eq tx rev. charges 10 bps on notional vale on such names. this is cyclical. and currently nearer the lows as opposed to the highs. one way to see this part of business as akin to buying a microcap index.
  4. the regulators historic pro nse stand is weakening. case in point the recent move to allow inter-op between the clearing houses. this in theory should weaken some of the reasons why nse continues to dominate eq market.
  5. under earning assets: starmf, iex,commodity,bonds, currency, etc. some of these have potential to be worth more than the currect bse mcap. starmf to me has the highest potential. followed by bse gift city venture.
  6. last year: dispite cyclical lows + under earning assets. it generated about 200crs of profit.
  7. star mf = (financialisation theme) X (digitisation of MF distribution) X (Pricing charges Rs 8 to AMCs intent to take to to Rs50 over the next few years. next year it should be Rs 14-15). X (potential for new products added to platform)
  8. ashishkumar chauhan + change in culture + op leverage
2 Likes

AMCs comparison -

  HDFC  vs   NIPPON  vs   ABSL AMC

AUM - 6.1 lk cr vs 5.2 lk cr vs 3.3 lk cr
Mkt Share - 12.1 pc vs 7.9 pc vs 6.2 pc
Equity AUM - 54 pc vs 49 pc vs 46 pc
Retail Mix - 71 pc vs 61 pc vs 52 pc
B- 30 share - 19 pc vs 20 pc vs 17.5 pc
SIP Book @ - 2.9k cr vs 2.3k cr vs 1.25 k cr

This data also explains the probable reasons for relative valuations of these AMCs

3 Likes

Nippon Life AMC -

Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Size of MF industry @ 55 lakh cr vs 40 lakh cr YoY - witnessing very strong growth

This is aprox 19 pc of GDP vs a world avg of of 60 pc of GDP - representing significant headroom for growth

No of unique MF investors in India @ 4.5 cr - 3.2 pc of total population ( showing under penetration )

MF unique investor base has increased @ 29 pc CAGR over 2020 -24

Segment wise breakup of MF industry ( total size @ 55 lakh cr ) -

Equity - 58 pc
Debt - 19 pc
Liquid - 11 pc
ETFs - 12 pc

For Nippon AMC - Equity share @ 49.2 pc, ETF share @ 25.9 pc

Client wise break up of MF industry -

Retail - 27 pc
HNIs - 34 pc
Corporate - 39 pc

For Nippon AMC - retail Mix @ 30 pc

Geography wise break up -

Top 30 cities - 82 pc
Beyond T-30 cities - 18 pc

For Nippon AMC - top 30 mix @ 80 pc

Industry’s monthly SIPs have hit 19k cr / month in Mar 24 vs 14k cr / month in Mar 23. SIP’s AUM stands @ 10.7 lakh cr vs 6.8 lakh cr in Mar 23

Nippon AMC’s AUM @ 5.24 lakh cr - currently India’s 4th largest AMC. Mkt share @ 7.9 pc, up 73 bps YoY. Investor base @ 1.6 cr

Nippon AMC’s avg SIP book @ 2300 cr / month

Company enjoys a 16.7 pc mkt share in ETFs, up 135 bps YoY

Distribution Channel -

80 National distributors - 20 pc of AUM
94 banks - 23 pc of AUM
1.01 lakh MF distributors - 57 pc of AUM

Q4 fy 24 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 468 vs 348 cr
EBITDA - 281 vs 199 cr
Other income - 92 vs 39 cr
PAT - 342 vs 198 cr

Financial investments on company’s books as on 31 Mar 24 @ 3932 cr ( 395 cr are in equity MFs, rest in Debt MFs / bank FDs )

Total number of company branches across India @ 192

Company witnessed 4th consecutive Qtr of Mkt share gains in Q4

Company’s mkt share in incremental SIPs @ a whopping 15 pc !!!

Nippon Gold ETF continues to be the biggest ETF in the Industry. Launched two more ETFs in Q4 - Bank and IT index funds

Digital transaction increased by 2X YoY in Q4

AIF continues to be an important area of future growth for the company. Aggressively launching new funds in this area

Dividend for FY 24 @ Rs 16.5/share !!!

Company’s future investments shall be focussed on Digital platforms, branding / marketing and acquiring new skill sets to ramp up AIF business

Seeing good traction in their Multicap, Largecap and Value funds - which is a good thing as it helps company diversify away from their best performing small cap fund

70-75 pc of company’s SIP book constitutes of folios investing less than 10k/month/fund

ESOP costs for next 4 yrs expected to be around 80 cr. Half of this would be incurred in FY 25

Disc : holding, biased, not SEBI registered

5 Likes

Nippon Life AMC -

Q4 FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Industry AUMs on 31 Mar @ 67 vs 54 lakh cr. Out of these - Equity AUMs @ 41 lakh cr, ETFs @ 8 lakh cr. Rest are liquid and debt funds

Segment wise breakup of AUMs ( for the Industry ) -

Corporates - 40 pc
HNIs - 34 pc
Retail - 27 pc

Geographical spread of AUMs ( for the Industry ) -

Top 30 cities - 82 pc
Beyond Top 30 cities - 18 pc

Monthly SIPs @ 25.9k in Mar 25 vs 19k cr in Mar 24

Nippon Life AMC continues to be 4th largest AMC and the largest non Bank backed AMC in the country

Nippon’s AUM @ 5.5 lakh cr, mkt share @ 8.26 pc. Company’s equity mkt share @ 6.86 pc. Company’s ETF AUMs @ 1.5 lakh cr, ETF mkt share @ 19.1 pc

Breakup of company’s AUMs of 5.5 lakh cr -

Equity - 50 pc
Debt - 15 pc
Liquid - 8 pc
ETFs - 27 pc

Breakup of company’s investors profile -

Retail - 29 pc
HNIs - 30 pc
Corporates - 41 pc

Breakup of company’s geographical profile of AUM -

T-30 - 80 pc ( @ 4.4 lakh cr )
B-30 - 20 pc ( @ 1.1 lakh cr )

No of SIPs with age > 5 yrs @ 54 pc of the company vs 30 pc for the Industry

Q4 FY 25 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 566 vs 468 cr, up 21 pc
Core Operating profits - 354 vs 281 cr, up 26 pc
Other income - 23 vs 92 cr
PAT - 298 vs 342 cr, down 13 pc due lower other income

Company is holding the following investments on its books -

Debt MFs - 2435 cr
Equity MFs - 510 cr
Bank FDs - 366 cr
Other assets ( like AIFs etc ) - 389 cr

Company’s SIP mkt share (@ 10.25 pc ) is better than their overall equity mkt share

Final Dividend @ Rs 10/share. Total annual dividend @ Rs 18/share

FY 25 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 2231 vs 1643 cr, up 36 pc
Core operating profit - 1404 vs 958 cr, up 47 pc
Other income - 290 vs 394 cr, down 26 pc
PAT - 1286 vs 1107 cr, up 16 pc

Nippon Life AMC was the fastest growing AMC among the top 10 AMCs in India in FY 25

**Company has an investor base of 20.8 million unique investors - highest in the Industry **

Japan has revamped their NISA scheme allowing retail investors in Japan to invest in India. Company is at the forefront and is confident to driving greater Japanese retail flows into the Indian mkts

ESOP costs for next FY should be around 50 cr in FY 26

Segmental yields -

Equity @ 57 bps, Debt @ 25 bps, Liquid @ 12 bps, ETFs @ 15bps. Corporate avg yield stands @ 37 bps

Tax rate for FY 26 should be 25 pc

Aprox 3-4 yrs back, the share of corporates in company’s AUM was around 50 pc vs 41 now. Company has a razor sharp focus on the retail and HNI category - hence this shift. Corporates generally invest in the liquid + debt funds. Aprox 90 pc of Equity AUMs come from Retail + HNI segments

Added 160 employees in FY 25. May add another 80-100 employees in FY 26. Total employee strength now stands @ 1170

Company has been going slow vs Industry on NFOs specially in the thematic funds category. It’s a deliberate strategy. Company believes, launching too many NFOs don’t really help in long term. In long term, the track record of old schemes is far more important than launching new funds

Despite not launching NFOs, company is still the mkt leader in adding new / unique investors

For FY 26, company expects total cost increases to be in the range of 15 pc on FY 25’s base

As RBI starts to cut rates, the attraction towards MFs should only increase as the bank FD rates fall

Company expects its corporate level yields ( Equity + Debt + Liquid + ETFs ) to fall by 2-3 bps in FY 26

Top 5 of company’s equity funds contribute to 80 pc of their equity AUM

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

3 Likes