Fermenta developed a organic cost-effective method to produce (makes sense if only commissioned to produce). I questioned myself - so what?
As per the facts in the below articles, Ridgeback sold exclusive worldwide rights to drug giant Merck to develop and commercialize EIDD-2801 (Molnupiravir) and related molecules.
As far as my knowledge goes, innovators innovate a molecule/drug and then outsource its manufacturing to 2 to 4 players till the molecule is under patent. It is these manufacturers who innovate and research best and cost effective process to synthesize/manufacture that drug/molecule.
If the talked process of synthesis is really cost effective and successful as is claimed and patent gets accepted for the same, there seems to be two ways by which Fermenta can benefit. Either it could go for manufacturing by itself as it already has a large land at Saykha readily available where no construction work has even started. Or, it could outlicense the technology to other manufacturers in which it could get one time payment as well as royalty each year.
Hence, if really this process is effective then in addition to monetary benefit, Fermenta could earn a respectable name for itself in the eyes of innovators which could help in its future growth.
All these are my assumptions and I could be wrong.
No benefit of Fermenta having developed a ORGANIC process to manufacture it, when it has not got the licence agreement from Merck.
MSD(Merck’s Indian Subsidiary) in pact with five Indian generic firms to manufacture, distribute COVID-19 drug molnupiravir. - Sun, Cipla, Reddy, Hetero, Emcure!
Fermenta can be API Suppliers for these companies or Fermenta owns cost effective process of manufacturing of Molnupiravir, that can be licensed to these companies.
After the amalgamation completed in 2019, Company’s main focus was to develop API and D3 segment. Another Focus was as the management reiterated at many platform is to monetize the freehold land in thane which worth around 500 Crs (as per management).
However there is no concrete development noticed over this goal, Furthermore there is no mention of this goal in FY20-21 Annual report.
Once this goal is completed, there will be unlock of value for the business. And big names may come in to take the ownership in this company.
It’s business can be classified majorly under four segments which are Vitamin D3 API, specialty APIs, biological enzymes and biotech based environmental solutions.
Around 75% revenue is from Vitamin D3 API.
Company is one of the top three Vitamin D3 manufacturer in the world and only one in the Country.
They are catering to domestic as well as international market. They have created subsidiary in Germany to better cater the market
Company has licensed is proprietary Enzymatic technology to ASPL( Aurigene Pharmaceutical Services Limited ) a subsidiary of Dr Reddy to manufacture Molnupiravir API
This API In turn will be consumed by Dr Reddy to make Formulation
Of late, my evaluation says,
Fermenta doesn’t have any pricing power.
I am now considering it as a pure commodity business.
In that case, being the top producer and having a unique production method doesn’t help.
The market price of its products drives the business.
Sadly, for the complete Fy23… I see no new actions by the management, no patents, no new formulations…nothing is talked about in their presentation or concall.
Moreover their roadmap is for nutraceuticals…which is a very crowded market, and to my mind our management is not aggresive enough to tackle it.
It’s like they have been sitting ducks and hoping for the commodity price to increase.
Same boat here too… Bought it for the nutraceutical and wastewater treatment business.
I hoped that the deleveraging done in real estate will give a boost to the management to pursue these things.
As you wrote, I had written off the vitamin D business where the management is waiting for the price to rise doing nothing. The new products are a vegan vitamin K that is being planned
In the nutraceutical business, the Rice kernel plant - would be a serious game changer given govt push to get every kid fortified rice. But I was amazed to know from the management that they built only for government regulations and are not interested in pursuing it.
The premix plant at Kullu is the only thing they are concerned about. From where they will be pushing out premix for fortified rice, milk & oil.
The wastewater management they are doing (setting up and monitoring) - given government actually implementing regulations - They expect a business increase from it.
Nothing exemplary in the execution or the thoughts and the management is indeed a clay pigeon.
All of their profits are from sale of property, their drug business is still in loss, hasnt turned around yet. Not a surprise to me. Vitamin D3 is a commodity drug.
A serious upmove in Vitamin D3 500 prices seems to have happened since July 2024, continuing into August. With Fermenta’s main API being Vitamin D3 (>50% of sales even including one time real estate sale last year), this could set the ball rolling for a potential turnaround in the profit statement of the company in the next 1-2 years.
It seems that Animal Feed Vitamin D3 500 which was selling at USD 7.5 FOB China till June 24, is now selling for USD 35 FOB China. Attached is an image - this was obtained as freely available information from a source I use for this data - allaboutfeed.com - so please also do your own checks
One time real estate sale last year can be viewed as a positive or negative in my opinion but should not be accounted for in valuations. It does make profitability for last year look higher, but at the same time it also released cash for the company at an important time.
With next year, if prices continue to remain firm, the EBITDA profile could transition rapidly. OPM margin in the worst year last year ~8%. In previous upcycle with firmer Vit D3 prices, OPMs have been comfortably between 20-30% for the company. Company’s last results and investor presentation only covers till June, so the upcoming quarters ahead could be especially interesting.
Disclosure : I am not SEBI registered. We hold Fermenta from lower prices last month in our individual and Adezi Ventures family office portfolio with recent transactions. This is not meant as investment advice and we might change/alter view/positions frequently.