Electric Cars/Bus :: Call it a Disruption?

EV Reporter says there are just 4 listed EV powertrain players in India:
(1) Varroc
(2) Bosch
(3) Sterling GTake
(4) Sintercom

1,2, and 3 above are making MCUs and Sintercom is making other components.

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Sterling Tools recently reported winning a 60 crore contract for manufacturing MCUs for an OEM.

Disc.: Invested in Sterling Tools

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BaaS - Battery as a Service is similar to SaaS - Solar as a Service introduced by Solar City, USA.

Where the huge initial capital investment is securitized as ABS (Asset Backed Securities) and sold to institutional investors.

While the concept is similar to MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) but we are dealing with a depreciating asset at the end of its life rather than an appreciating one like Real Estate.

Pay as you go schemes will make EVs more affordable in India. This will be different from a vehicle loan as at the end of the tenure, say 10 to 15 years, the battery will still be owned by the bond holders, the vehicle owner before scrapping the vehicle will have to return the battery.

The battery may not have the performance parameters to be in a vehicle anymore but it can still be repurposed to be used in renewable electric grid load management for another decade. At the end of its life it can be recycled to pay off the remaining amount to the bond holders.

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Despite the fact that EV is booming, many companies are already started to solve the problems which may arise due to dead batteries of those Electric vehicles and finding ways to recycle them.

An interesting article says that companies like Nissan, Volkswagen, Renault etc are already doing the pilot projects by setting up plants to recycle the dead batteries which may cause trouble after a decade and recycling is the best way to supply new ones.

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Here it says that Norway is 3rd-lowest in the world in terms of EVSE per EV (charging stations per electric vehicle). Despite this, Norway is the global EV leader with 54% market share with EVs and 74.8% incremental market share for EVs. How is this possible? How is Norway the world EV leader despite very low EVSE/EV ratio?

This is a lovely interaction by B&K Securities on Blu Smart’s ride hailing business with an electric vehicle fleet where they charge a premium over ola/uber by running EVs which cost lower (<1/km). Quite an interesting chat about EV batteries, business economics of charging stations, etc.

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Has anyone noticed the amount of Chinese Electric 2 wheelers roaming around… few days back i went to check both EV selling shop and TVS agency in our small town… since my cousin bought one EV… and i was surprised to see the amount of sales differential… TVS sales were very lacklustre and on contrast… there is shortage of Chinese Electric 2 wheelers due to massive demand… basically due to massive increase in petrol cost… majority of population is feeling the heat… and tilting towards Electric 2 Wheelers…

Cost: Electric scooter Costs 52K with lead acid batteries 5 packs… runs 40-50KM per day, consumes 1-2 units a day basically 10rs per day
While a petrol scooter is costing 70-90K and costing 3rs/km

which is massive cost difference… for new sales ratio seems to be 5 to 1 for electric vs petrol… i am not sure if it is same trend in other states… but at least i heard similar trend all across small towns in Haryana

seems companies like TVS, Honda are already dinosaurs in their industry and it will be huge challenge for them to compete with Chinese EV scooters…!

I went to check which batteries these scooters are running on… since i have made recent investment in Exide… so was curious to know if replacement batteries are also Chinese or companies like Exide are also giving options… as of now all of them are imported Chinese batteries…!

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The trend is similar in my township in M.P where approx 400 peopler reside and they did all permutations and combinations and shifting towards branded EV scooters. I myself booked Ola electric on its launch.

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Thanks - nice info. I’m wondering why these companies are fitting lead-acid batteries (can only think of cost)? I think the latest tech is mostly based on various combinations of li-ion batteries. Lead acid is old tech and has subpar performance on various parameters (charging times, battery life etc). Is it only the upfront cost? Or something else?

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Hi Gagan, can you share the brand name of that chinese schooter.
I had studied a bit on this, and right now most of the schooters are running on L-Ion and brands quicky replacing it with Li-Phospahte battries as they are superior over L-Ion.

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Olectra Greentech bags 100 electric buses order worth Rs140cr under FAME-II scheme : DOES THIS MEAN ONE ELECTRIC BUS COST Rs. 1.4 cr.???

Prashant

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Not exactly as it may include free maintenance period for particular time .

Thank you for your reply…still if u have any idea about costing of this bus please let me know

Prashant

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There’s an Avendus report that says electric buses can cost more than 40% the price of a normal bus. Hence, the highest push is coming from government agencies and not private bus operators.

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Has anyone come across this company , they are building batteries based on zinc and bromine , listed recently on LSE (Australian company )

Another one

https://superdielectrics.com/

Superdielectrics Group plc (“Superdielectrics” or the “Company”) is a company based near Cambridge, UK, focused on developing technology to build supercapacitors with high energy density, low cost, environmentally benign electrical energy storage devices that will help create a clean and sustainable global energy and transportation system.

Superdielectrics was founded in 2012 by Dr. Donald James Highgate and Francis James (“Jim”) Heathcote who were joined by Nigel Anthony Spence as Finance Director. The team planned and then implemented a research programme to develop biocompatible, electrically conducting hydrophilic polymers, which had the potential to be used in bioelectronics.

From 2014, working with Surrey University, the team discovered the materials exhibited very unusual electrical properties. In mid-2016, test-samples were sent to Professor David Fermin, Bristol Electrochemistry Group, for independent analysis who confirmed that the Company’s superdielectric materials have capacitance values 1,000-10,000 times higher than the then existing aqueous electrolytes in supercapacitors. In short, this means these materials have the potential to create energy storage solutions that store significantly more energy than existing solutions of the same weight.

Therefore, the Company has established that its superdielectric materials could translate into game-changing, commercially viable products, offering a step change in performance compared to existing electrical energy storage technology.

Having completed the University supported research programme, the Company has now relocated to new laboratory facilities near Cambridge with the aim of replicating the results identified in the laboratory, increasing energy density and developing a supercapacitor incorporating the Company’s polymers on a commercial scale.

The Company plans to do so through continuing to work on refining its polymers, developing associated production technology and intends (subject to funds raised) to plan, lease and fit out a pilot production plant to exploit the commercial opportunities that this is expected to create.

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Despite good execution, Olectra has several issues:

Promoters bought out subsidiary for almost 6% of annual sales.

Multiple related party transactions of large values. Permission for the max value of these transactions have continually increased

Promoters - both previous and current, have been accused of infra scams etc. Seem politically well-connected.

Most of sales and raw material sourced from promoter owned entities.

Promoters might have acquired stake in company at a 14% discount.

Increasing competition in the space.

Demand mainly from government entities due to no upfront cost advantage over ICE buses.

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Delhi Govt policy on RWA charging infra

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Why tyre makers have an opportunity to premiumize and hence get higher vale per tyre

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Though EV tyres will be costlier than IC tyres, whether it works to the benefit of tyre makers or detriment is not clear. Now tyre makers have to ‘reinvent the wheel’ (pun intended) - spend money on new R & D, testing, technical know-how etc. and ultimately try to sell in a competitive market. Whoever creates a better product at lower cost will win while other will lose out. Existing supplier – OEM relationships can get disrupted and new ones forged. Who will be a winner from this will be impossible to tell in advance. Not a happy situation from investor point of view.

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