Interesting topic and very very vibrant discussions.
The big question here is IF we get a stable govt… First of all I have my doubts about that fact… The Indian electorate has been in the habit of doing the unexpected atleast in the past two general elections… First was Congress winning its first term when everyone was sucked into the India Shining story. Second was Congress surprisingly managing to cross the 200 seat mark when nobody was expecting it to.
This time, looking at market run up, I think the expectation is for a stable govt atleast and that too BJP dominated. Again I feel we may be in for a surprise… There could be a real hot potch result and then ONLY GOD SAVE US.
Putting the theories about results of election on backburner, I think if one were to bet on Modi and his allies forming next Govt at centre, the group to bet would be the Adanis… Adani Enterprise, Adani Ports, even Adani Power could be interesting bets. Even a Torrent Power could be an interesting bet. Narendra Modi’s reforms in power sector in Gujarat are there for everyone to see. He has almost semi privatised the Gujarat electricity board and might do something of a similar nature at Centre PROVIDED HE IS ALLOWED TO DO WHAT HE WANTS TO DO------- coalition politics will restrict his moves.
But this time around as compared to last time’s pre election times, the biggest difference is that index levels are at the highest levels whereas in 2009 markets were just coming out of a sharp correction and there was no hope of any kind of stable govt coming to power.
IF there is a strong govt at centre this time there will be no surprise as I feel most of that is priced… Surprise will be if there is some kind of hung parliament.
personally I would prefer to sit on the fence and watch how things play out… Maybe even increase the cash levels a bit and see how things go… Bcos if things god forbid go wrong, there could be a lot to lose from these kind of index levels.
One Caveat: Please dont take the views expressed too seriously… I have been wrong time and again in guessing macro events and macro moves.
I think we need to do the best we always do… at valuepickr… Find great businesses in their infancy, buy them cheap and ride the journey.