Interesting presentation on disruptive technology expectations in Energy and transportation.If this will happen as expected what will be the effect on Automobile Industry.Should we tweak our investment?
Disruptive Technology is here !
System one: OMG, Sell Amara Raja batteries!
- Amara’s foreign stake holder and technology provider is Johnson Controls. What do they say? They say: http://www.autonews.com/article/20160704/OEM02/307049991/johnson-controls-bets-big-on-stop-start-systems
- Some reality check on Tesla itself: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3994098-tesla-q2-earnings-many-questions-answer?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget
- Quick check on oneself: I ( representing millions of car owners) already own a car bought in last 1/2/3/4/5 years for anywhere from 4-10L and why should I invest another 5-10L so my fuel cost goes down. Green? Yes, but if that costs me another 10L, well…can i put off going green for a few years please?
- So, fuel cells will cost lesser and lesser, but what of Opec and other countries that produce oil and their entire survival depends on it ? Will they stand by and watch this happen ? OR will they drop prices to survive? They may make lesser per barrel, but they survive longer.
Eventually the world may move to renewable sources of energy, but when is that? Maybe as the speaker says in the video, the future is almost upon us, but reaching that conclusion in double quick time is System-1.
In the horses and cars pictures, it is an unthinking assumption that all the horse owners became car-owners over 13 years. Maybe they did. Or maybe the car owners were those that could afford cars, and did not own horses? Would the new owners of EVs be the ones that own petrol cars, or first time owners? The existing hundreds of millions of cars wont go off the road overnight? The horses had no champion. Existing cars on the other hand have the support of powerful corporations in whose interest it is to control the rate, and direction of change. Yes, Elon Musk and Tesla can change all that, but its far from clear at the present time that the establishment will crumble without a fightback.
The author of the presentation regularly shows that slide about horses and cars on a New York street as an example of disruption rendering the horse obsolete. In that case, we must remember that from the get-up and go, the car was more efficient than a horse (do not think air pollution, smoking was de-rigeur then). In the present context he then claims EVs will do the same to conventional cars.
This is the first point I do not agree well with. Conventional automakers have not moved into EVs because of major technical challenges in that sector. They are waiting and watching, and will launch full electric models with better R&D while exploiting the obsolescence inherent to pioneers in any field against small EV makers such as Tesla. These companies also have the ability to under-cut on prices, since Tesla has not really been profitable despite the shareholder hoopla (am I right?).
Over arching all this is the fact that Moore’s law cannot be used in case of systems with Physics limits on them. For instance, we cannot pack ever more conventional transistors on a chip as quantum effects will become felt and quantum computing is not yet mainstream outside academia. Further, if academia is working on it, it can be a couple of decades before the technology becomes mainstream.
Regarding, solar PVs, the reduction in cost is very correct. However, coupling Solar with onsite storage is not as easy as it appears. For instance, cloud edge lensing and increase generated electricity from a PV by 25%, that has to be managed and fed back to the grid, and that effect is true for all the houses in your neighbourhood. Very precise energy management software and hardware is required for this. The challenges are not as trivial as the lecturer assumes.
So, in passing, disruptions are real, but not as simplistic as the lecturer portrays. Finally, revolution devours its own.
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