Dish TV 10 bagger stock

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How does the company look now.
I am interested, but unsure how is the huge loan onnthe book (outstanding to creditors rs1050cr, Then rs450 cr as outstanding) totals rs1500cr as loans.

This seems a lot, and they need to invest in brand and tech…
Tatasky n airtel seem to be leadin the race.

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Q3 results are out https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/89086db2-bf24-444a-b5cf-175c8934d403.pdf

Positives
they have been reducing debt every quarter right now stands @ 450 cr (reduced by 100 cr from last quarter )at this rate company will be net debt free by next year saving close to 300 or 400 cr on intrest payment which will mean the company at todays prices will trade at a pe of roughly 4.

Negatives
Every quarter top line has been going down .This is a big red flag ,subcribtion revenues are falling almost 3-4% every quarter .Which means only 1 thing that they are losing market share whether be it to ott platforms or competitors.

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First thanks to @Shivacii for starting the thread and bringing all the info about the company

Today finally voting results are out ,and reappointment of Mr. Ashok Mathai Kurien has been cancelled by 78% votes against his reappointment . I hope sooner or later a new shareholder friendly board is appointed .

pros
1)Almost trading at sales to market cap with nil to no debt.
2)A new minority friendly managment can reward shareholders going forward in form of divdends or unlock value by stake sale to tata sky or airtel (whoever bids the highest will become the biggest DTH provider)

cons
1)It is a dying buisness with sales dropping down every quarter due to OTT platforms .(But at current valuations it is almost bringing almost 70% market cap in operating cash flows)

disc:invested views may be biased

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Even if it is in a dying industry the revenues are slowing down slowly.Btw i cannot find any information about Tata Sky and Airtel Dth revenues.Are they also slowing down?

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Anyone has any idea about agenda of the meeting, company has not given any details. Is it about yes bank matter ?

I think it would be for seeking approval of the reappointment of the MD. The reappointment was done in March and they have to get shareholder approval within a period of 3 months.

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The stock looks quite cheap.MD will not get the approval as yes bank is going to vote against resolution.

Yes, on valuation front this is trading at less than 3x FCF. Fair value of the business is far higher.

So the results are out and they are not great ,Top line has declined by 14% YoY and 10% QoQ.They are losing revenue to competition and mainly OTT platforms customers are becoming choosy and not renewing regularly like before.Cashflows from operation has fallen to 1673cr from 2070cr last year almost down 20%.

This might be highly discouraging to some but i feel at current valuation the stock is way underpriced as i do feel at some point the fall in revenue QoQ will stabilise no idea when but It cannot become zero as major OTT platforms like amazon prime has become more expensive by 500 rs 1000 yearly to 1500 a year (they have also started charging rent for some movie content)and netflix will soon start banning account sharing Ott will become expensive and all india specially rural india doesn’t have fast internet everywhere and the disposable income are not that high to be able to afford fast internet plans to run 1080 or 4k streaming services.

Not only this but at 13rs a share Market cap is 2400 cr goodwill is at 621 cr(2238cr last year) debt at 376 cr (810cr last year) even at 15% decline in cash flow this year the company will be debt free and even goodwill fully written off the company will generate a profit of 500 cr this year that is roughly 25% of the market cap or a P.e of 4 and going forward next year with no goodwill to write of no debts and interest to pay and company business being a cash cow i wont be surprised it generating 1000 cr every year for lets say the next 5 years assuming dish tv goes out of business due to competition or Ott platforms(highly unlikely) it will still generate free cash flows of 5000 cr twice of current market cap.

I wont be touching on the points of change to better management or government maybe reducing licence fee for Dth companies or putting regulations on OTT content.All in all whatever that could have happened bad to the company i feel has already happened (One cannot a be 100% sure :sweat_smile:) and i feel the stock is highly undervalued due to all the reasons.

Disc:invested and views maybe biased

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By when will the goodwill be written off completely?Are people actively shifting to OTT and cancelling cable subscriptions?

This year most proabably.

Yes and no(Dish TV FY22 operating revenue stands at Rs 2802.5 crore - Exchange4media this will help you understand.

The entire premise of this thread is that the promoters do not have the necessary voting rights by a huge margin.Followers of this thread will know the context of my comment.They are following this thread because of the probable management change in the company.

But I will add disclosure to the comment.Hope that will be enough.

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Did anyone attend the EGM today? If yes, kindly do update on the same. thanks.